Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
537 PM MDT Sat may 18 2013
Aviation...
00z taf cycle
VFR conditions forecast through the next 24hrs except with
short-lived MVFR visibility restrictions in blowing dust near virga
showers this evening. A moderate westerly low level flow will
increase Sunday afternoon with a few surface wind gusts near 35kts
possible at klvs and ktcc.
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&&
Previous discussion...307 PM MDT Sat may 18 2013...
definitely more cumulus this afternoon across the state...as opposed to
yesterday. Virga has been prominent across the southwest/central
areas this afternoon...but not much precipitation has actually
reached the ground. There has been quite a bit of lightning from southeast
Utah up toward north central Colorado associated with some
lift/instability ahead of the upper level trough. The trough will
continue to slide east tonight...and its expected that some
showers/storms will work into northwest nm...but still looking for
more sprinkles with gusty winds...gusts near/over 50 miles per hour
possible...than any storm with significant precipitation.
Otherwise...gusty winds have already been the story today with
strong mixing and a healthy surface pressure gradient. Critical fire
weather conditions will be the main story for the next few
days...more on that below.
Temperatures will once again be tricky tonight. Cloud cover and any
precipitation should largely diminish by midnight...plus Pacific front will
have moved through the area...but locally breezy conditions may keep
temperatures elevated. Evening crew will need to monitor trends.
Second lobe of energy will swing into The Four Corners area Sunday
night and across northern nm on Monday. A few models showing this
trough to actually close off for a short time. Expanded probability of precipitation just a
tad more over the jemez and southern sangres...but just isolated at
best. This trough will usher in yet another Pacific front and gusty
winds. Temperatures sun-Tuesday look to generally trend downward to near
or even below normal.
Back door front will come down the plains Monday night...and low
level moisture is expected to increase behind it. This may help
generate a few storms over the sangre Delaware cristos. Otherwise...
shortwave ridging will be on tap as we go into Wednesday. Temperatures will
correspondingly get a big boost on Wednesday areawide.
Models continue to have trouble resolving where the moisture will
set up across the eastern plains late in the week and over the week.
The GFS continues to suffer from convective feedback issues...and
interestingly...the European model (ecmwf) bring the low level moisture much further
westward than at this time yesterday. Stay tuned.
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Fire weather...
..extended period of critical fire weather through Monday...
Breezy to windy conditions as expected this afternoon and they will
continue through the evening. Relative humidity values dropping into the single
digits over much of the forecast area. Will continue with the red
flag warning through 9 PM MDT for east...central and southwest
zones. Isolated to locally scattered showers and a handful of
thunderstorms...mostly of the dry variety...will be found over the
northwest and north central areas...mainly over the higher terrain.
Beware of potential strong and erratic wind gusts up to 55 miles per hour. Relative humidity
recovery mostly fair tonight except poor across the east Central
Plains.
Sunday to be fairly close to todays weather parameters...although
temperatures will be lower in the north and east and relative humidity values a
little higher. Wind speeds will be a little higher across the east.
Current red flag warning looks good. Again expecting several hours
of critical fire weather conditions across portions of the Rio
Grande Valley and from east slopes Central Mountain chain eastward.
Thunderstorm coverage is a little less and shifted farther to east.
Mixing heights lower some on Sunday but still portrayed to be above
normal for this time of year with excellent vent rates. Mostly fair
relative humidity recoveries Sunday night.
Monday still brings critical fire weather concerns for portions of
the Rio Grand Valley east to the Texas border. Daytime highs will
trend a bit lower all areas. With these cooler temperatures the risk
of widespread significant fire weather concerns is less...especially
in the northeast plains and western high terrain. Will not include
these zones in a Fire Weather Watch for Monday. Included zones will
be 106...107 and 108. Any precipitation will be confined to the
northern tier of zones. Min relative humidity values from 9 to 15 in the watch
area...teens through 20s elsewhere. Continued excellent ventilation
rates. Back door cold front to slide down the eastern plains late
Monday into Tuesday morning...bringing some increase in dewpoints
in its wake.
Still indications are that the wind will ease off some on Tuesday.
No significant precipitation is expected. By middle week models are
hinting at a deep upper level low pressure system over the Pacific
northwest making its way ever so slowly south. Weak ridging on Wednesday
will give way to some increase in southwest flow aloft. But at this
point winds do not look strong enough to produce any critical fire
weather conditions late next week. Instead we could be looking at
a dry line setting up across the eastern plains later next week
right through next weekend.
Chj
Aviation...
18z taf cycle
scattered to widely scattered high based -shra and a few -tsra to develop mainly
north of a line from Glenwood to cqc this afternoon under approaching
cooler air aloft. Ceilings should remain VFR. Convection...especially
stronger cells...likely to produce brief and localized downburst
gusts between 35 and 50 kts. Best chances to experience strong
wind gusts are at fmn...gup and saf. Cannot rule out at abq and
lvs. Surface pressure gradient and strong vertical mixing will create
non convective southwest wind gusts of 30 to 35 kts in most tafs
for the afternoon. Visibilities locally reduced in blowing dust in
stronger gusts...but not included in any tafs. Winds decreasing
after 01z or 02z this evening...then increase by 15z Sunday.
&&
Abq watches/warnings/advisories...
red flag warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for the following
zones...nmz103-104-106>109.
Red flag warning from 10 am to 9 PM MDT Sunday for the following
zones...nmz103-104-106>108.
Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for
the following zones...nmz106>108.
&&
$$
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