Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
354 PM EDT sun may 19 2013
Synopsis...
a few showers or thunderstorms will be possible this evening and
again during the day Monday as a frontal boundary remains near our
area. A better threat for showers and thunderstorms will come Tuesday
and beyond as a more significant front and low pressure system
move close to our area. The bigger story will be warmer weather
with high temperatures in the 70s to near 80 over the next few
days.
&&
Near term /until 6 am Monday morning/...
330 PM update...
looking for a fairly quiet evening across the area. While we are
socked in with cloud cover for most of the County Warning Area...ample sunshine
has developed over western New York. This boundary between the sunshine
and more clouds is right across The Finger lakes with temperatures
near 80 at this hour at kroc...but still closer to 60 here at the
office. The latest mesoscale analysis from Storm Prediction Center shows a few hundred
joules of cape over the western Finger Lakes...but near 1000 j/kg
just east of Lake Erie. With the lack of any real significant
trigger I do not expect much at all this evening. Smaller scale
triggers may still produce some storms over western New York with
possible triggers being a lake breeze...differential heating...or
some slight surface convergence. Maintained slight chance probability of precipitation
through this evening for The Finger lakes because if some isolated
convection forms the southwest flow in the middle levels will move
storms toward that area. Later tonight I included a mention of patchy
drizzle from the southern tier of New York into nepa. Expect this mainly
to be a higher elevation feature but based on such moist low
levels...it can't be ruled out even in the deeper valleys. Will
not indicate anything measuring as the model quantitative precipitation forecast fields continue
to be way overdone with showing quantitative precipitation forecast amounts in these
areas...likely a result of terrain playing too much influence.
&&
Short term /6 am Monday morning through Wednesday/...
330 PM update...
Monday...much like today most of the day will be dry with chances
for precipitation remaining low. Unlike today however we do have a
weak boundary to our north that may try to drop southward late in
the day. With increased instability can't rule out any storms
tomorrow...especially from midday through afternoon. With that
said best bet appears to be across the north. For the most part
any activity that forms should fall apart Monday night. The
exception may be late Monday night through The Finger lakes as
moisture once again increases ahead of our next system. With the
boundary mentioned above to our north Monday...temperatures may be the
bigger story with everyone in the 70s to near 80 in the lake plain.
Tuesday/Wednesday...
Chances for showers and storms increase significantly during this
period as an upper level low over the northern plains finally
moves east. This combined with a boundary near or even just north
of our area will be enough of a trigger to combine with plenty of
moisture to produce the threat each day. Continued with high
chance and low likely during the period with the highest probability of precipitation over
the north near the boundary itself. Temperatures will be
tricky...especially Tuesday with mav guidance showing middle to upper
80s but the met closer to lower 80s. I have noticed both the met
and mav have increased temperatures over the past few runs and will bump
up temperatures mainly into the lower 80s for Tuesday. Reluctant to go
too much warmer like the mav with boundary/cloud/precip issues.
&&
Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
the extended forecast will feature a deep upper level trough over
the northeast keeping temperatures well below normal through the period
after a cold frontal passage on Thursday.
At the sfc, a cold front will approach the region Wednesday night
with frontal passage on Thursday. Will continue with high chance/likely probability of precipitation
through this period along with the chance for thunderstorms. Building
upper level trough and lingering Post frontal moisture will keep the
threat for showers into Friday. The remainder of the period will
be dry with partly to mainly clear skies as surface high pressure drops
south over the area from central Canada. Lows both Friday and
Saturday night may be cold enough for frost.
&&
Aviation /20z Sunday through Friday/...
a southeast flow will continue over the terminals through daybreak
Monday keeping abundant low level moisture across the region.
Currently MVFR/low MVFR ceilings are being observed and this will
continue through early evening when ceilings will lower into the
IFR/low MVFR category. At kith/kbgm ceilings will drop below alt min
overnight with krme/kelm/kavp occasionally falling into the IFR
category between 09z-13z. By middle morning, a southwest flow will
allow ceilings to lift into the MVFR/low VFR category. During the
afternoon scattered convection is likely as a weak surface trough
approaches th region.
Winds S-southeast between around 5-8 knots becoming southwest Monday
morning.
Outlook...
Tuesday/Wednesday...MVFR in showers/thunderstorms.
Thursday...MVFR possible in showers/thunderstorms.
Friday...VFR.
&&
Bgm watches/warnings/advisories...
PA...none.
New York...none.
&&
$$
Synopsis...heden
near term...heden
short term...heden
long term...rrm
aviation...rrm
