Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
856 PM EDT Sat may 18 2013
Synopsis...
high pressure off the New England coast and a weak system over the
middle Atlantic will bring the chance for showers tomorrow through
Monday. On Monday, there is also the chance for thunderstorms as a
weak surface trough approaches the region. Unsettled weather will
continue into Tuesday.
&&
Near term /until 6 am Sunday morning/...
700 PM update...
radar returns are much weaker than just a few hours ago as drier
air has moved in from the northwest. Nothing more than a few
sprinkles expected through this evening and mainly from near the
New York/PA border south. An increasing southeast flow tonight will
increase chances for rain but again the main threat will be in
nepa. The previous afd is below...
At 4 PM...local radars show weak returns over NE PA with a few
light showers being reported at the surface. Slightly drier air is
working in from the west along with weakening middle level
overrunning, therefore this activity will probably diminish for
awhile this evening.
Later tonight, southeast winds will spread across the forecast area from return
flow with surface high pressure off the New England coast and a weak surface
wave in the middle Atlantic. This will bring overcast skies to much
of the region along with chance/slight chance probability of precipitation for NE PA. Lows will
range from the upper 40s to middle 50s.
&&
Short term /6 am Sunday morning through Tuesday/...
Sunday...moist southeast flow will continue through the day with the best
chance for showers over the western Catskills and NE PA. In the
lake plain will just advertise slight chance probability of precipitation due to less
moisture. Maximum temperatures will range in the middle 60s over the southern
Catskills and Poconos with lower 70s in the lake plain.
Sunday night...southeast flow begins to weaken across the area but
a weak upper level circulation within the upper level ridge will
pass through the middle Atlantic region. This feature will keep
chance/slight chance probability of precipitation over the southeast portion of the forecast area.
Monday...a southwest flow will develop as a weak surface trough over
eastern Canada approaches the region. Models continue to indicate
several hundred joules of cape, with best instability in the lake
plain so will continue to mention thunder. Maxes will range from
the middle 70s to lower 80s.
Monday night/Tuesday...unsettled weather will continue as boundary
stalls over the area with a weak wave moving along this feature in
northern PA. Will continue to carry chance probability of precipitation through the period along
with the chance for thunder on Tuesday with diurnal instability.
&&
Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
200 PM update...
Unsettled mild and wet pattern with a stationary front over
upstate New York Tuesday night to Thursday. Just in the warm sector so warmer than
normal. A slow moving upper level trough and strong surface low moves
in Thursday night. This will be the best chance of rain Thursday afternoon and Thursday
night. The slow movement continues Friday as a cold front slowly
moves southeast to the East Coast. Mostly dry day. Saturday in northwest flow
with multiple weak waves and surface troughs moving through. Maybe
showers in New York.
Have followed wpc guidance. Models similar.
&&
Aviation /00z Sunday through Thursday/...
VFR with varying layers of ceilings will linger through the evening.
Deepening S-southeasterly flow from the surface-5000 feet is expected to increase
overnight with advection of moisture from a quasi-marine layer spreading
across the rest of the region into Sunday morning. Given present
conditions...the confidence in this forecast is marginal, but
model moisture fields and MOS guidance is strongly suggesting that
MVFR-IFR and fuel restriction ceilings will come into play later
tonight. The area of deep layer moisture is not too many miles to
our south with plenty of upglide coupled with boundary layer
cooling to promote saturation. Have therefore continued the
forecast trends for deteriorating flight conditions with the 00z
update. The krme-ksyr areas may fair the best by remaining in
mainly a VFR-MVFR category.
Winds light tonight from se-S...increasing 8-12 kts Sunday.
Outlook...
Sunday night through Monday...MVFR into Monday morning mainly southern tier
and NE PA.
Tuesday/Wednesday...MVFR possible in showers/thunderstorms.
Thursday...VFR falling to MVFR late in showers/thunderstorms.
&&
Bgm watches/warnings/advisories...
PA...none.
New York...none.
&&
$$
Synopsis...rrm
near term...heden/rrm
short term...rrm
long term...tac
aviation...jab
