Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Texas/Santa Teresa nm
241 PM MDT Tuesday Jun 18 2013
Synopsis...
continued very warm temperatures for the next several days. A bit
better moisture supply east of El Paso will lead to a few
thunderstorms in this area through Wednesday night. By Thursday
through most ot the weekend more moisture will move over the entire
Borderland...bringing back a chance of thunderstorms throughout the
area. Monday and Tuesday will see a decrease in moisture so chances
of rain will be limited mainly to the mountains.
&&
Discussion...
what a difference a day makes. Yesterday saw moderate low level
moisture combined with high instability and a short wave aloft to
produce considerable early convection. Today we have an airmass
modified by last night's outflows to the east...into a moist but
rather cool and more stable airmass. Plus today's look at the WV
imagery shows an upper trough approaching The Four Corners area down
through northern Arizona. Can't see any other little disturbances
closer to US. Mixing perhaps a bit slower than models would indicate
but drier and S/SW winds have made it as far east as Deming and
should continue east to about El Paso. Will still keep slight chance
of thunderstorms east of El Paso this evening. High temperatures today in the
moister airmass are running about 3-7 degrees cooler than yesterday.
Not expecting much change for Wednesday. Models continue to show
drier airmass from about El Paso west...and barring any unexpected
short waves not in the models...probability of precipitation should be limited again to
areas east of El Paso.
Thursday through Sunday...both NAM/GFS showing middle level southerly
winds increasing as upper high drifts slowly back towards the County Warning Area.
This will advect in some Gulf of California moisture in addition to
the higher moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Will spread probability of precipitation back
to all areas. GFS showing a new trend of higher qpfs on the east so
did tailor some higher probability of precipitation in the east.
Monday/Tuesday...previous model runs showed these days as transition
days back to a drier pattern. Latest GFS shows moisture persisting
longer into this period...though by Tuesday upper high has drifted
over southern New Mexico. Probability of precipitation will slowly taper to mainly mountains.
Wednesday and beyond...both European model (ecmwf)/GFS push upper high north over
Colorado by Wednesday and anchor it there through Friday. Still
mostly dry but with this pattern...the monsoon flow may beginning to
show itself. Atlantic Basin high with westward ridge north of our
County Warning Area will open up the Gulf of Mexico to a steadier moisture supply.
Something to hope for.
&&
Aviation...valid 19/00z-20/00z.
An isolated storm or two remains possible for the southern
Sacramento Mountains...eastern Tularosa and Hudspeth County through
03z. Activity will have winds vrb30g45kt with lowland bldu. The
night time shift to southeast winds which is typical for this time
of year...received an extra push westward overnight with outflows
from storms that formed over The Trans Pecos area. Thus expect winds
to remain from 120-150/10-15g20kt for areas east of the Continental
Divide this evening. Look for winds 170-220/10-15g20kt west of The
Divide. Winds 220-240/15-20g25kt are expected after 17z all areas
Wednesday. Light occasional MDT turbulence surface-080 along and east immediately east
of area mountains after 15z.
&&
Fire weather...
sustained moist southeast low level flow resulting from numerous
thunderstorms that developed over The Trans Pecos area last
evening...will sustain southeast winds for areas east of the
Continental Divide overnight. West of The Divide...south to
southwest winds are expected. Look for the southwest winds to return
for all areas starting roughly middle day. Gusts may reach into the
low 30 miles per hour range for higher elevations with favored exposure. For
storm activity Wednesday...look for isolated coverage over Hudspeth
and eastern Otero counties in the afternoon. Gusty outflow winds
and dry lightning are the main threats.
Through the week...the area of upper level high pressure currently
south of US...will slowly recenter itself to our southeast just
south of The Big Bend. This will allow circulation around its
western periphery...to advect meager amounts of monsoon driven
moisture back into our area from the south...beginning late
Wednesday evening. Look for isolated mountain activity for the Gila
region and sacs starting Thursday as a result. Storms will gradually
increasing in coverage into the upcoming weekend.
Lowland min relative humidity Wednesday will range single digits west of the Rio
Grande Valley...to near 20% east. Lower teens to 20% are in store
for area mountains. Values climb roughly another 5-12% all areas
Thursday...then another 3-5% Friday
Haines indices will range from 5-6 Wednesday...with 6 expected for
the Gila region and Sacramento Mountains. Capitan Mountains will
likely see 5. Values are expected to drop to 4-5 through at least
early this weekend...as a result of the increase in moisture.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
El Paso 76 102 78 100 77 / 10 0 0 10 20
Sierra Blanca 71 100 73 97 71 / 10 20 20 20 20
Las Cruces 71 101 73 99 71 / 10 0 0 10 10
Alamogordo 68 101 71 98 69 / 10 0 0 10 20
Cloudcroft 50 79 51 76 49 / 20 10 10 20 20
Truth or Consequences 71 101 72 98 71 / 0 0 0 10 10
Silver City 63 94 63 92 61 / 0 0 0 10 20
Deming 67 101 69 100 67 / 0 0 0 10 10
Lordsburg 67 100 69 98 68 / 0 0 0 10 10
west El Paso metropolitan 78 102 80 99 78 / 10 10 0 10 20
Dell City 66 100 68 97 67 / 10 20 20 20 20
Fort Hancock 76 105 78 104 77 / 10 10 20 10 20
Loma Linda 65 95 65 91 63 / 10 10 10 10 20
Fabens 74 103 76 102 75 / 10 10 0 10 10
Santa Teresa 73 100 75 99 73 / 10 10 0 10 10
White Sands hq 72 100 74 97 72 / 10 0 0 10 10
Jornada range 64 100 66 98 64 / 10 0 0 10 10
Hatch 70 97 72 95 70 / 0 0 0 10 10
Columbus 71 101 74 99 72 / 0 0 0 10 10
Orogrande 69 101 72 99 70 / 10 0 0 10 20
Mayhill 57 86 58 84 56 / 20 10 20 20 30
Mescalero 53 88 55 87 54 / 20 10 10 20 20
Timberon 54 85 55 83 53 / 20 10 10 20 20
Winston 58 92 58 89 56 / 0 0 0 10 20
Hillsboro 66 95 66 92 63 / 0 0 0 10 10
spaceport 68 99 70 97 67 / 0 0 0 10 10
Lake Roberts 60 92 60 91 58 / 0 0 0 10 20
Hurley 64 96 64 93 63 / 0 0 0 10 10
cliff 56 97 64 97 53 / 0 0 0 10 20
Mule Creek 50 97 51 95 47 / 0 0 0 10 10
Faywood 65 95 65 93 63 / 0 0 0 10 10
Animas 68 101 69 98 67 / 0 0 0 10 10
Hachita 66 101 68 99 65 / 0 0 0 10 10
Antelope Wells 67 102 70 100 67 / 0 0 0 10 10
Cloverdale 63 97 65 93 60 / 0 0 0 10 20
&&
Epz watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...none.
&&
$$
Hefner/Tripoli
