Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
328 PM CDT Monday may 20 2013
Short term (tonight through Tuesday night)...
convection initiating along the dry line over southwestern Texas this
afternoon. Our northern County Warning Area will be on the tail end of the
strongest convection with a Tornado Watch already in effect until
10 PM this evening for the Northwest Hill country. Have kept low probability of precipitation of
20-30 percent across The Hill Country...however any storms that do
form will be strong-severe. Expecting convection to decrease late
this evening with the loss of heating and a retreating dry line.
Otherwise a more potent system remains the focus for Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday evening as more upper air dynamics comes
into play with the approaching short wave trough and surface cold
front. Models show more organized sustained convection developing
with heating in north/central Texas Tuesday afternoon...dropping
slowly southward into the northern County Warning Area late Tuesday afternoon/evening.
Possible secondary development to the southwest indicated by both
the NAM/GFS. Convection should begin to weaken/taper off in the
early morning hours Tuesday night as upper air trough exits the
County Warning Area.
&&
Long term (wednesday through monday)...
have left slight chance probability of precipitation in the eastern counties Wednesday morning
with remnant frontal boundary. Otherwise drier middle level flow on
Wednesday as the upper ridge builds into West Texas. Weak ridging
aloft for Thursday through Monday. The European model (ecmwf) shows some subtle
disturbances lifting out of Mexico into West Texas next weekend...
however have left any mention of probability of precipitation out of the long term
forecast for now. Continued warm and humid with above normal
temperatures.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 73 93 72 92 71 / 10 40 40 10 -
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 72 92 69 91 70 / 10 40 40 10 -
New Braunfels Muni Airport 69 94 69 93 70 / 10 40 40 10 -
Burnet Muni Airport 72 90 68 90 69 / 20 50 50 10 10
del Rio International Airport 76 100 74 99 76 / 20 20 20 10 10
Georgetown Muni Airport 72 89 70 90 69 / 10 50 50 10 -
Hondo Muni Airport 74 96 72 95 71 / 10 30 30 10 -
San Marcos Muni Airport 72 92 71 92 71 / 10 40 40 10 -
La Grange - Fayette regional 76 92 75 91 74 / 10 30 30 20 -
San Antonio International Airport 74 94 72 92 72 / 10 40 40 10 -
Stinson Muni Airport 73 94 73 93 71 / 10 30 30 10 -
&&
Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&
$$
Mesoscale/aviation...05
synoptic/grids...01
public service/data collection...31
