Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
239 PM CDT sun may 19 2013
Short term...(this evening through wednesday)
issued at 237 PM CDT sun may 19 2013
Forecast highlights focus around severe thunderstorm chances this
afternoon-tonight...with continued severe weather chances Monday
afternoon-night.
Latest surface map indicates a cold front bisecting Kansas from
north-south...extending from a surface low over south-central NE.
The cold front intersects a dryline over northwest/north-central
OK...which then trails south through western OK. The airmass is
becoming increasingly unstable along/ahead of these features...owing
to steep middle-level lapse rates...continued afternoon heating and
rich low-level moisture. In the middle/upper levels...a 70-90kt jet maximum
is approaching from the southwest. Per objective analysis and
morning soundings...a Stout cap is likely currently in
place...acting to suppress surface-based activity from developing.
However...this cap should eventually be breached by middle-late
afternoon...as all these features converge amidst a strongly
unstable airmass...allowing for rapid surface-based thunderstorm
development. Given 50-60kt deep layer shear oriented perpendicular
to the boundaries...supercells and multicell clusters appear
likely...capable of very large hail...damaging winds and a few
tornadoes. Thinking the greatest tornado threat will be generally
east/southeast of the Kansas Turnpike corridor...and especially this
evening over southeast Kansas and north-Central/Northeast OK...when
backing surface flow and a strengthening low-level jet enhances
storm-relative helicities. An isolated strong/violent tornado will
be possible. As evening progresses...storms should transition to
more of a linear Mode...with a threat for damaging winds and locally
heavy rain.
The thunderstorm threat should continue for Monday afternoon-night over
southeast Kansas...as the front stalls in response to approaching
shortwave energy from the west. Another round of strong/severe
storms appears possible...especially over far southeast Kansas...along
with locally heavy rain. Depending on how much rain individual
locations receive...could see modest/steep rises on far southeast Kansas
rivers/streams...along with relatively minor low-land flooding...so
a Flood Watch may have to be pondered by later shifts...especially
if ample rainfall occurs tonight. While tornado threat appears
lower...ample instability and shear will still promote large
hail/damaging winds. Per model consensus...the front should finally
exit the forecast area Monday night/early Tuesday...ending storm
chances.
Adk
&&
Long term...(thursday through sunday)
issued at 237 PM CDT sun may 19 2013
Medium range model consensus builds middle/upper ridging across
middle-America by mid-week...resulting in warming temperatures.
Additionally...could be looking at periodic bouts of late
afternoon/overnight thunderstorms across the region from late week
through the weekend...as persistent Lee troughing will promote
afternoon High Plains activity...which would tend to move east
across the region during evening/overnight hours.
Overall...widespread severe weather threat appears low due to
marginal middle/upper flow...but degree of instability would promote a
threat of strong/severe storms.
Adk
&&
Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon)
issued at 1211 PM CDT sun may 19 2013
Scattered severe convection is expected along and ahead of a
dry-line and cold front later this afternoon through the evening
for locations along/east of the I-135 corridor. Chances will
diminish by early evening along a Salina to Wichita line but
continue through the overnight hours across southeast Kansas.
Severe wind gusts and large hail are expected with the super-
cell storms across southeast Kansas with tornadoes possible.
The gusty south winds will shift to the northwest and diminish
tonight behind the dry-line and front across central Kansas.
While mainly VFR conditions are expected through the forecast
valid period...periods of MVFR and IFR can be expected in and
near the convection. This will be handled with short term
amendments as convection looks more imminent.
Ked
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 60 82 56 77 / 40 20 20 10
Hutchinson 58 80 55 76 / 30 20 10 10
Newton 58 81 55 76 / 40 20 10 10
Eldorado 61 82 56 77 / 60 20 20 10
Winfield-kwld 63 84 58 78 / 60 30 40 10
Russell 53 78 51 73 / 10 20 10 10
Great Bend 52 78 52 74 / 10 20 10 10
Salina 55 79 54 75 / 30 20 10 10
McPherson 56 80 54 76 / 30 20 10 10
Coffeyville 67 82 65 79 / 80 60 80 50
Chanute 66 82 62 78 / 80 60 70 30
Iola 66 82 62 78 / 80 50 60 20
Parsons-kppf 67 82 63 78 / 80 60 80 40
&&
Ict watches/warnings/advisories...none.
&&
$$
