Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Jackson MS
933 PM CDT Tuesday Jun 18 2013
Discussion...the latest in a long series of upper disturbances over
the past few days continues to swing eastward across the region this
evening. The associated complex of showers and embedded storms now
extends from Jackson to McComb...and is almost entirely to the south
of a west-to-east oriented surface front that is slowly sinking
southward across the County Warning Area. This complex has been moving rather slowly
this evening and will continue to March eastward tonight affecting
areas along and south of I-20...though the heaviest precipitation will
likely remain from the Highway 84 corridor to the south. Mostly dry
conditions will continue to the north of the front across the Golden
Triangle and much of the arklamiss Delta. The forecast was updated
to focus the better rain chances to the south and lower probability of precipitation farther
to the north. Min temperatures were also lowered in a few areas where temperatures
were already below projected minimums due to ongoing precipitation.
Updated products have already been sent. /Dl/
&&
Aviation...showers and thunderstorms are moving across hks/Jan and
hbg this evening and this will bring tempo MVFR/IFR conditions
through about 03-04z. Expect VFR conditions to return after...but
MVFR/IFR conditions may return for Jan/hks/mei and hbg by 09-10z due
to fog and low clouds. Expect VFR conditions after 14z for most
sites...but isolated to scattered storms will be possible once again
Wednesday afternoon./15/
&&
Previous discussion... /issued at 341 PM CDT Tuesday Jun 18 2013/
short term...
the front will continue to drop down and settle along the coast
Wednesday and then eventually fade out Wednesday night or Thursday.
Chances for showers and storms along the stalled front in our
southern counties exists again tomorrow. The clouds today brought
some relief in temperatures but otherwise this front will have no
affect on our temperatures the next day or two and they will be back to
normal tomorrow. Patchy fog will be likely in areas that don't
receive rain overnight and where the cloud cover has cleared
out...mostly in the northern counties. Thursday should be hot but
relatively quiet then as an upper ridge expands into the plains and
high pressure builds into the south. /10/
Long term...Thursday through next Tuesday...a surface boundary
will reside just south of the forecast area Thursday into
Friday...while upper ridging builds over the lower Mississippi River
valley. This will allow a slight drying of our airmass and at
present...at least a couple of days to dry out as far as rainfall is
concerned.
This doesn't look to last long though as both rain chances and the
humidity look to return during the weekend and hang on into the new
work week. A piece of upper level energy left by a departing upper
trough over the East Coast...is forecast to meander about along the
north central Gulf Coast. This feature...combined with daytime
heating and ample moisture over the forecast area...looks to aid in
the development of convection each afternoon through the remainder
of the period...especially across east and southeast Mississippi.
As far as temperatures are concerned...guidance suggested highs and
lows look reasonable. Highs each afternoon will range in the low to
middle 90s...while lows each night generally range from the middle 60s to
around 70. /19/
&&
Jan watches/warnings/advisories...
MS...none.
La...none.
Arkansas...none.
&&
$$
Dl/15/10/19
