Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
620 am CDT Monday may 20 2013
Discussion...
Updated to include the 12z aviation discussion below...
&&
Aviation...
A line of rain showers/thunderstorms and rain is extending from MO into north central Arkansas
this morning...with thunderstorms in the vicinity continuing in the taf for the northern sites
this morning. Otherwise...some sites were seeing some MVFR
ceilings...which should improve to VFR levels outside any precipitation
activity later this morning. Also...some areas early in the period
could see a bit of low end low level wind shear...but should improve as surface winds
increase later this morning. Breezy srly winds will be seen trough
this afternoon and early evening as surface pressure gradient remains
fairly tight across the region. Have mentioned thunderstorms in the vicinity across the northern
sites through this afternoon as additional thunderstorms and rain could develop this
afternoon. This evening and into Tuesday morning...the potential for
rain showers/thunderstorms and rain will spread further south and east...with prob30 or thunderstorms in the vicinity
mentioned for thunderstorms and rain potential during this period of the taf. Some
MVFR or lower conditions could be seen under the precipitation activity.
&&
Previous discussion... /issued 410 am CDT Monday may 20 2013/
Short term...today through Thursday night
Storms formed over northeast Oklahoma late Sunday evening...and
moved northeast into southern Missouri overnight. However...showers
have recently developed along the southern edge and are moving into
northern Arkansas. Have kept small rain chances across the north
through the morning hours...as much of this activity will dissipate
before noon.
Question for this afternoon will be if any development occurs on any
lingering boundaries left over from the overnight activity. The NAM
and now the hrrr is picking up on this...ahead of activity
developing off low level jet around sunset. This will have to be
monitored closely...because if any cell is discrete...severe weather
will be maximized.
This evening...storms will form across eastern Oklahoma into
southern Missouri...as front interacts with low level jet. The
storms will slowly move east during the late evening into the
overnight hours...with strong to severe storms possible. Also...with
the slow motion and copious amounts of moisture...heavy rainfall is
possible...especially across the northwest half of the state tonight.
The front will progress into the state Tuesday...with severe
potential continuing. However...tornadic potential will not be as
great due to lessening shear. Flooding remains a concern for
Tuesday...as several rounds of thunderstorms will move across the
area.
The rainfall will begin to move southeast late Tuesday into Tuesday
night...with much of the activity confined to the southeast half of
the state Wednesday. However...the front will meander around the
area through the end of the short term...with small rain chances
continuing.
Long term...Friday through Sunday
Cold front will have pushed into the state from the NE at the start
of the long term period...stalling across the state from northwest to southeast.
Mention slight chance probability of precipitation with this front over the state for
Friday...but an upper ridge to the west will begin to shift east over
the Southern Plains and southern MS River Valley region into this weekend. As
a result of the ridging aloft...decrease probability of precipitation into the weekend...as
well as increasing temperatures above normal by late in the forecast.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 85 69 80 65 / 20 50 70 70
Camden Arkansas 89 70 87 67 / 10 20 40 70
Harrison Arkansas 81 66 78 60 / 30 80 70 60
Hot Springs Arkansas 88 71 84 67 / 10 30 60 70
Little Rock Arkansas 88 70 84 68 / 10 30 60 70
Monticello Arkansas 90 72 88 69 / 10 10 40 70
Mount Ida Arkansas 87 70 83 64 / 20 40 60 70
Mountain Home Arkansas 82 67 77 61 / 30 80 70 70
Newport Arkansas 86 70 82 67 / 10 40 60 80
Pine Bluff Arkansas 89 71 86 69 / 10 20 50 70
Russellville Arkansas 85 68 80 63 / 20 50 70 70
Searcy Arkansas 87 69 82 66 / 10 30 60 70
Stuttgart Arkansas 88 71 85 68 / 10 20 50 70
&&
Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none.
&&
$$
Aviation...62
