Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
149 am EDT Sat may 25 2013
Aviation...bkn060-080 will affect the East Coast terminals early
this morning. A few showers and few-sct020-030 will be around
along with the possibility of brief MVFR conditions. Then, drier
air moves into the area as winds switch from light northwest to NE and
really increase by this afternoon...ne15g20-25kt. There is a
slight chance of showers and even a possible tstorm along the Gulf
Coast. Included vcsh for kapf for now. /Gregoria
&&
Previous discussion... /issued 806 PM EDT Friday may 24 2013/
Aviation...
VFR will continue over all of South Florida taf sites this evening into
Saturday morning. The winds along the East Coast taf sites will
remain easterly through Saturday morning. The wind speeds at the
East Coast taf sites will be around 5 knots tonight then increase
to at least 15 knots with gusts up to 28 knots for late Saturday
morning into early Saturday afternoon.
For kapf taf site...the wind direction will be westerly until around
01z tonight then swing to a northeast direction and remain northeast
tonight into Saturday morning. The wind speeds at kapf taf site will
also remain around 10 knots this afternoon before decreasing to
around 5 knots tonight and then increase to 10-15 knots with gusts
up to 20 knots for late Saturday morning into the afternoon hours.
Previous discussion... /issued 239 PM EDT Friday may 24 2013/
Discussion...
East Coast sea breeze has started this afternoon and can be seen
well on radar. Scattered to broken cumulus field has also developed
across the area as temperatures have soared into the upper 80s to
low 90s. Still believe isolated showers and thunderstorms should
develop along the southern portions of the area over the next few
hours. Storms that develop should be enhanced by a weak pre-frontal
trough lingering across the extreme southern portions of the area.
12z mfl sounding showed fairly steep middle level lapse rates offset
by fairly decent capping. A few more degrees of heating should
erode capping allowing thunderstorms to develop accompanied by sea
breeze interactions. Main threats with any storms will be brief
heavy downpours and gusty winds.
Showers and thunderstorms should diminish later this evening with
heating loss. By Saturday a weak back door cold front will push
through the area bringing much drier air to the South Florida area
with slightly milder temperatures. Pleasant conditions will prevail
through the weekend.
Deep moisture will return in a big way through the first half of
next week as a large area of moisture surges to the northwest and
into the South Florida area from the Bahamas. This will increase
chances for showers and possible thunderstorms during this time
frame. Another deep moisture axis will then push into the area on
the heels of the first...this time accompanied by an 500 mb low and
associated surface trough. Model soundings depict precipitable water values
surging to 2+ inches by late Thursday. Needless to
say...precipitation chances will linger through the end of the
week.
Marine...
the pressure gradient will increase across the region over
the weekend as low pressure builds into the Atlantic Seaboard and
high pressure builds into the southeast United States. By
Saturday winds across the South Florida Atlantic waters are
forecast to be in the 14 to 18 knot range with that trend
continuing into at least midweek next week. By late Saturday Atlantic
seas are forecast to increase to 3 to 5 feet...possibly up to 6
feet in the Gulf Stream...and more or less remain in that range
into middle- week.
For the South Florida Gulf waters...winds in the 15 to 18 knot range
are forecast by early Sunday with off shore seas forecast to be 3 to
4 feet with that range forecast to continue into early next week.
A pre-cautionary statement will likely be needed over the weekend
for portions of the Atlantic and Gulf waters if the current
forecast trend continues.
Fire weather...
as a cold front and drier air is forecast to move southward into
the region through the weekend...minimum relative humidities could
reach the upper thirties across Glades County today and then
by Sunday across Glades...Hendry and interior portions of Collier
County. Deeper moisture is then expected to return by early to
midweek next week.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 72 82 74 84 / - 10 10 10
Fort Lauderdale 76 84 76 85 / - 10 20 10
Miami 74 83 74 85 / - 10 20 20
Naples 67 90 68 90 / - 10 10 10
&&
Mfl watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Am...none.
GM...none.
&&
$$
