Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/valley NE
1125 PM CDT Thursday may 23 2013
Aviation...
06z tafs for kofk...koma and klnk.
VFR conditions expected through the period with broken-overcast middle level
ceilings moving into the area. Flow becomes southerly as high
pressure shifts east of the area with winds increasing to 15g25kt
by 18z.
&&
Previous discussion... /issued 235 PM CDT Thursday may 23 2013/
Discussion...
High pressure across the Missouri Valley will continue to
transition eastward overnight giving US quiet weather and east
northeast winds becoming southeast by daybreak. Meanwhile...an
upper level impulse moving through the central rockies should
trigger convection tonight across the High Plains....which will
slowly push eastward into our forecast area through the day
Friday with the best chance for precipitation across eastern Nebraska...
and just a small chance across western Iowa during the afternoon.
Instability returns to the region. Given shear and instability
parameters...a few strong storms could occur. This first impulseseems
to move through during the evening...although the convergence
along the nose of the low level jet could still provide support
for isolated storms to linger past midnight.
Forecast details become less clear through the remainder of the
weekend and through next week...but there will be several chances
for precipitation through the period. Convection from Friday night could
leave behind a few boundaries...which could be the focus for new
convection Saturday across our area. Instability definitely
increases during this time...and with sufficient shear...seems
there could be a severe threat this day as well.
The region will also remain under an upper ridge from Saturday
and beyond...which puts in the well within the area of prime
action at least through the early part of next week as weak
impulse continue to eject out of the mean southwestern trough and
continue to trigger several rounds of storms. By this time...the
details of any widespread severe storms becomes increasingly
difficult to pin down...other than there will be several chances
for rain. Not to say that it will be continuous rain...but given
that it's a Holiday weekend and there will be many more outdoor
activities than normal...there will be a chance of rain just
about every 12 hour period through early next week.
For later portions of the extended forecast...the models suggest
that the ridge axis does shift eastward just a bit...but still
small chances of rain will exist in the forecast for Wednesday and
Thursday of next week.
Dewald
&&
Oax watches/warnings/advisories...
NE...none.
Iowa...none.
&&
$$
Fobert
