Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
934 am CDT Friday may 24 2013
Update...
made quick tweaks to probability of precipitation this morning. Increased rain chances
over south central Oklahoma...where isolated showers/storms have
developed in a very moist low level environment. Expect widely
scattered to isolated activity to continue through middle afternoon.
Thereafter...high res models indicate one or more complexes of
showers and storms may develop across southern and western
portions of Oklahoma and western North Texas. Here...adjusted probability of precipitation
upward as confidence is relatively higher in terms of convective
coverage. Kept central Oklahoma with 20 and 30 percent probability of precipitation...as
most activity is likely to stay west...but cannot rule out a few
showers and a stray thunderstorm. Will be monitoring this with
ongoing relief efforts in tornado impacted areas. Otherwise...only
minor changes were made to hourly temperatures/winds/dewpoints to account
for current observation and get a better idea of the trend through the
day.
&&
Previous discussion... /issued 411 am CDT Friday may 24 2013/
Discussion...
we continue with relatively active pattern... but one that is a
bit hard to forecast as we remain under the Main Ridge axis.
However this is a weak ridge and multiple impulses continue to work
through the ridge bringing precipitation chances to the area through the
weekend. Timing and location of both the impulses and main areas
to see the higher precipitation chances remain difficult. However...
severe probabilities remain low through the weekend.
By early next week we should see a few relatively dry days even
though the ridge breaks down and we begin to see larger scale
western trough take shape. This trough looks to eject out into the
central U.S. By late Wednesday or Thursday bringing additional
chances of showers and thunderstorms to Oklahoma and North
Texas... and perhaps more severe weather as well.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 78 64 83 64 / 30 20 20 20
Hobart OK 82 65 85 63 / 50 30 20 20
Wichita Falls Texas 85 67 88 64 / 50 30 30 30
gage OK 79 63 86 63 / 50 30 20 20
Ponca City OK 78 63 84 64 / 20 20 30 20
Durant OK 82 64 85 67 / 60 20 20 30
&&
Oun watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Texas...none.
&&
$$
84/02
