AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
900 PM PDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS WITH SLIGHT
COOLING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN WARMING LATE IN THE WEEK. AREAS
OF MAINLY NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL NEAR THE
COAST...WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER AREAL COVERAGE TUESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY
WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AND PARTS OF THE
COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
STRATUS WAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST THIS
EVENING...WITH CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. THE MARINE INVERSION BASE WAS
AROUND 1200 FEET THIS EVENING...SO STRATUS SHOULD MAINLY JUST EXTEND
INTO COASTAL AREAS AND PARTS OF THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS TONIGHT.
A CLOSED LOW WAS NEAR 45N/130W AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO
WASHINGTON/OREGON BY WEDNESDAY. THE WEST-EAST RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE
CENTERED ALONG THE 27TH PARALLEL FROM THE EAST PACIFIC THROUGH
NORTHERN MEXICO. A SHORT WAVE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CLOSED LOW
WILL MOVE THROUGH SO-CAL TUESDAY NIGHT AND LOWER HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT
HERE AND INCREASE THE ONSHORE FLOW. AFTER A DAY OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL TEMPS TODAY...THERE WILL BE COOLING TO READINGS JUST A BIT
BELOW NORMAL TUE/WED. WITH MORE COOLING BELOW THE INVERSION THAN
ABOVE...WE SHOULD HAVE SOME LINGERING STRATUS TUE AFTERNOON AT SOME
COASTAL LOCATIONS. STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND A GREATER THERMAL
GRADIENT ALOFT WILL RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS IN THE DESERTS/DESERT
MTN SLOPES AND THROUGH SAN GORGONIO PASS...WITH LOCAL GUSTS AROUND
50 MPH LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
WILL INCREASE TOO...ESPECIALLY NEAR SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.
THE CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE ENE TOWARDS MONTANA/ALBERTA
THU/FRI...AND WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER CALIFONIA THOUGH
WITH GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES. MEANWHILE...THE W-E RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH
WIL BUILD MORE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTH-CENTRAL US FOR
RATHER UNEVENTFUL WEATHER HERE...NIGHT/MORNING STRATUS NEAR THE
COAST...WARM IN THE VALLEYS AND SEASONALLY HOT IN THE DESERTS. LOCAL
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MTNS/DESERTS. THERE ARE HINTS
IN BOTH GFS AND ECM THAT THE HIGH BUILDING IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL US
COULD EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE US NEXT WEEK WITH EAST FLOW
DEVELOPING OVER MEXICO. THIS COULD BE A PRECURSOR TO MONSOONAL
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MTNS OF SO-CAL. TEMPS COULD BE QUITE HIGH OVER
INLAND AREAS AS WELL NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
180300Z...COAST/INLAND VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 1000
FT MSL AND TOPS NEAR 1800 FT MSL ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH AROUND 15 MILES AFT
18/0600Z. VIS 2-4 SM BR WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE STRATUS NEARS HIGHER
TERRAIN. KONT WILL REMAIN SKC/FEW THOUGH VIS MAY DROP TO 3-5 SM HZ
BETWEEN 18/1500Z-1800Z. STRATUS WILL CLEAR TOWARDS THE COAST BETWEEN
18/1500Z-1700Z TUE MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL THAN AGAIN MOVE INLAND
FROM THE COAST EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. BASES AND TOPS WILL BE A
COUPLE HUNDRED FEET HIGHER THAN TONIGHTS.
VALLEYS/MTNS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR AND P6SM THROUGH TUE EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME SUSTAINED 15
TO 20 KT...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE A
SHORT-PERIOD COMBINED SWELL OF UP TO 8 FT...ESPECIALLY NEAR SAN
CLEMENTE ISLAND. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MAXWELL
AVIATION/MARINE...JT
