Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
334 PM CDT Sat may 25 2013
Discussion...
weak upper level circulation in Red River vicinity across SC OK
and NC Texas this afternoon. Widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms associated with this feature will linger into the
evening. Overall movement of the upper low into Monday will be to
the northeast...however a somewhat erratic track is anticipated
with weak steering flow in place. There is potential for organized
rainfall across far southeast OK later tonight into tomorrow
morning...however concerns over areal coverage and advection of
the precipitation to north will limit actions to slightly higher probability of precipitation and
higher quantitative precipitation forecast across southeast Oklahoma for now...however it bears watching.
The upper level low will lift northeast of the area early next
week...and will give way to warmer middle level temperatures for the next
few days...thus rain chances appear limited for the early part of
next week. Next upper system and corresponding rain/thunder
chances return beginning Wednesday...and continuing through the
remainder of the forecast. A surface dryline sets up across western
Oklahoma...and will likely serve as a focus for storm development.
Cooler middle level temperatures along with any upper level energy moving
through in the SW flow will offer the chances for scattered
convection across eastern OK and northwest Arkansas...however it appears the bulk
of dryline activity should stay to the west.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 69 83 69 85 / 20 20 10 10
fsm 67 82 66 85 / 20 30 10 10
mlc 67 83 67 84 / 30 20 10 10
bvo 66 83 67 85 / 20 20 20 10
fyv 62 80 64 83 / 20 30 20 10
byv 62 80 62 82 / 20 30 20 10
mko 66 82 66 86 / 20 20 10 10
Mio 64 81 66 84 / 20 30 20 10
f10 66 83 66 84 / 20 20 10 10
hhw 67 82 67 84 / 40 20 10 10
&&
Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Arkansas...none.
&&
$$
Short term...07
long term....23
