Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tucson Arizona
832 PM MST sun may 19 2013
Synopsis...a broad upper level trough over the western US will hold
temperatures near normal levels through Tuesday. Then the trough
will gradually move east allowing for a warming trend from Wednesday
Onward with dry conditions through the week.
&&
Discussion...still looking at a few gusty spots this evening but
overall wind speeds will continue to diminish overnight. Wind speeds
will be a little on the gusty side again Monday afternoon and
evening though. Otherwise...dry conditions with near normal
temperatures can be anticipated. Please refer to the additional
sections for more information.
&&
Aviation...sky clear through early Monday morning or 20/12z. Surface wind
Monday afternoon and evening westerly/northwesterly 10-15 kts with gusts to near
25 kts...strongest wind east and south of ktus. Otherwise...surface
wind less than 10 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for taf
amendments.
&&
Fire weather...dry conditions will prevail through next Saturday.
Expect a gradual daily warming trend through Wednesday followed by a
continuation of above normal daytime temperatures Thursday through
Saturday. Daytime minimum relative humidities will generally be in
the single digits to lower teens with fair overnight recoveries.
Expect normal diurnal wind trends today through Wednesday...with
occasional gusts during the afternoon and early evening hours due to
strong daytime heating. Somewhat stronger southwest winds are
forecast to occur Thursday and Friday as a low pressure system
deepens northwest of the area.
&&
Previous discussion...a broad upper level trough centered over the
Rocky Mountain states will very slowly drift east maintaining a dry
northwest flow across the region through Monday night. As the initial low
moves east...a shortwave ridge will pass across the region late
Tuesday as a deep upper level low settles in along the West Coast.
This low Marks the beginning of a long wave trough setting up along
the West Coast that will linger into early the following week. That
setup will result in a dry SW flow setting up over Arizona with the
possibility of moisture spreading up into New Mexico...and it will
cause temperatures to jump to 4-8 degrees above normal from
Wednesday Onward. The thing that will need to be watched with this
setup is the potential for breezy/windy periods (southwest winds)
depending on the strength and depth of features rotating around the
base of the trough. While the wind won't be strong enough to be a
concern for the public in general it could pose concerns for the
fire fighting community. This is something that can't be quantified
this far out in time so stay tuned. Cerniglia
&&
Twc watches/warnings/advisories...none.
&&
$$
Visit US on facebook...twitter...youtube...and at weather.Gov/Tucson
