marine weather discussion for N Atlantic Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 235 PM EDT Wed Oct 7 2015
.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Atlantic ocean W of 50w from 30n to 50n.
The 12z sfc analysis indicated a stationary front over the srn offshore waters with weak high pres ridge building into the New England waters. A ascat pass from late Wed morning indicated a band of 20 to 25 kt winds over the srn nt2 waters to the NW of front...otherwise winds were less than 20 kt over the area.
The 12z models continue to be in very good agreement through most of the fcst period...with some differences noted during the day 5 period. For the period tonight through sun...front over the far srn waters will move se of the area tonight...with high pres building offshore Thu and Thu night...then moving E of area Fri. The 12z models are similar with the timing of next cold front to affect the waters Fri night into Sat. The 12z GFS 30m winds have backed off compared to the 06z run...and now indicates even the 30m winds remaining below gale. The GFS 10m winds actually match up well with the UKMET and 00z ECMWF winds which for the most part are in the 20 to 25 kt range. Front will then stall over the srn waters sun and Sun night as high pres builds across the New England waters. Looking ahead to Mon/Mon night the models indicate low pres developing along front and moving N. The GFS/UKMET are reasonably close with this low...and are also close to the 00z ECMWF. For the wind grids plan on using the GFS 10m winds throughout...though may use a blend of GFS/ECMWF for Mon/Mon night pending the new 12z ECMWF.
.Seas...The lastest sea state analysis indicated that observed seas matched up well with the mww3 fcst values...and plan on using the mww3 throughout.
.Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.
.Nt1 New England waters... None.
.Nt2 mid Atlc waters... None.
.Forecaster kosier. Ocean prediction center.