marine weather discussion for N Atlantic Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 101 am EST Mon 9 Dec 2013
.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Atlantic ocean W of 50w from 30n to 50n.
For the immed short term fcst...weak sfc low E of the mid Atlc coast will cont to move N and should be E of Cape May by 12z this mrn and move N to NE today and tngt while weakening. Models have bn consistent with winds E 30 kt ahd of the low today...shifting to W to SW immed fllg the aassd front/low. Prvs fcst had incrsd the westerlies to gales frc over the gf of Maine tngt. Successive runs of the GFS hv gradu weakened this gradient and Max 30m GFS winds are now dwn to 25 kt. NAM/UKMET/ECMWF agree so will lower gales for the Gulf of Maine for tngt.
Models take fllwg cold front off the coast tngt and are in gd agrmnt on the timing of the front...with the GFS just a smidge faster then consensus. Xpct SW winds to incrs to 30 kt by late tngt ovr the srn waters as the front presses up againgst the sfc rdg cntrd E of Bermuda. GFS quickly incrs the SW winds to 45 kt ovr ern balt to httrs cnyn. These init look too strng...but the new UKMET/Gem do al least support incrsng the current fcst FM 35 to 40 kt Tue S of Balt canyon..so wl do so in the fcst. Behind the front...GFS/UKMET/Gem/ECMWF all point a brf period of W to NW gales arnd 06z Tue ngt...so will incrs winds here to 35 kt.
In the longer term...the models diverge in theier fcst on Thu. Models have timing dffrnc on S/W energy mvg ESE in the fast uppr flow so that by late Thu/early Fri...model hv varying degress of strngth of placement of S/W mvng ovr the W Atlc. On the sfc... this creates dffrcs as the 12z ECMWF...with some support from the UKMET in dvlpng sfc low off the E coast while the GFS/Gem are satisfied in just pushing the strng sfc high E into the wrn Atlc Kate Thu with NW gales N of balt preceeding the high. Given that the ECMWF has been a little inconsistent and that the 12z op ec dvlps a 969 mb low se of nwfndlnd with the op run about 20 to 30 mb below the ensmbl mean...wl discount the ECMWF and stay with GFS fcst. Thus for Fri...winds wl dmnsh and back to W to SW as sfc high mvs off the mid Atlc coast late Fri per GFS/Gem/UKMET. Seas...the multigrid wave watch looks good and initlzd well. Will fllw wna guidance...except will trim back seas abt 20 pct ovr the outter offshr wwters late Tue into Tue ngt as the GFS bl winds are overdone here..as noted above.
Extratropical storm surge guidance...estofs values appch 1 ft along srn New England this aftn...then dmnsh tngt. Values then extend to minus 1 to 1.5 ft in the strng offshr flow Tue ngt FM Delmarva N...gradu dmnshg Wed.
.Warnings...Preliminary. Any changes will be coordinated through AWIPS 12 planet chat or by telephone:
.Nt1 New England waters... .Gulf of Maine...gale Thu. .Georges Bank...Gale Thu. .South of New England...Gale Tue night.
.Nt2 mid Atlc waters... .Hudson Canyon to Baltimore Canyon...none. .Baltimore Canyon to Hague line...Gale tuesaday. .Baltimore Canyon to Hatteras Canyon...Gale Tuesday. .Hatteras Canyon to Cape Fear...Gale Tuesday. .Cape Fear to 31n...None. $$
.Forecaster prosise. Ocean prediction center.
There are no current maps for this region.
|No Stations Reporting|
|Place||ID||Sea Temp||Wave Height|
|No Stations Reporting|
NOT FOR NAVIGATION. DO NOT RELY ON THIS DATA FOR DECISIONS THAT CAN RESULT IN HARM TO ANYONE OR ANYTHING.