marine weather discussion for N Atlantic Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 820 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014
.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Atlantic ocean W of 50w from 30n to 50n.
Summary...numerous obs in the glf of Maine are rptg NE flow of 35 to 40 kt and seas up to 19 ft...while obs off the nrn mid Atlc CST are rptg N to NE winds of 25 to 35 kt and seas in the 8 to 12 ft rng.
Strong low pres off the mid Atlc CST will move NE tonite....pass NE across the nt1 area Thu into early Fri while deepening...then move off to the NE later Fri thru Sat. A strong cold front will approach the coast later Sat...then pass se across the ofshr waters Sat nite into sun nite. A hi pres ridge will build se into the srn nt2 wtrs sun nite...then spread over all of the remaining ofshr waters Mon and Mon nite.
Models...the Med rng mdls are in vry gud overall agreemnt across the ofshr wtrs thru the fcst prd with only vry minor pattern and timing diffs noted...except NOGAPS becomes too progressive over the sun thru Mon nite prd. ECMWF/GFS/UKMET all have gales in the glf of Maine and off the mid Atlc CST for this evng...but the GFS 30m aprs to be doing the best job in the glf of Maine since it is the only one of these mdls to show 40 kt winds there. Since the GFS has been a vry consistent and representative mdl soln over the past few days...the GFS 30m will be used thru the fcst prd for the wind grids. Am not planning to make any signif changes to the current fcst trend.
.Seas...The multigrid ww3 mdl looks underdone by as much as several feet in the Gulf of Maine and off the nrn mid Atlc coast. Since the ECMWF wam has been initializing signif better it will be used for the sea ht grids for tonite and Thu. Since the GFS 30m is being used for the wind grids thru the fcst prd...the mww3 will be used for the sea ht grids from late Thu thru Sat nite. A 50/50 blend of the mww3/ECMWF wam will be used for sun thru Mon nite in order to tone down higher mww3 values over this timeframe.
.Extratropical storm surge guidance...Estofs indicates about a one foot surge arnd Cape Cod Bay and Long Island Sound tonight into Thu with the strong northeasterly flow.
.Nt1 New England waters... .anz800...Gulf of Maine... gale today into Thu. Gale possible Mon. .Anz805...Georges Bank west of 68w... gale possible sun into Sun night. .Anz900...Georges Bank east of 68w... gale possible sun into Sun night. .Anz810...South of New England... gale tonight. Gale possible sun into Sun night. .Anz815...South of Long Island... gale today into tonight. Gale possible sun into Sun night.
.Nt2 mid Atlc waters... .anz820...Hudson Canyon to Baltimore Canyon... gale today into Thu. Gale possible sun. .Anz915...Hudson Canyon to the great South Channel... gale Thu. Gale possible sun into Sun night. .Anz920...Baltimore Canyon to the great South Channel... gale Thu. Gale possible sun. .Anz905...The great South Channel to the Hague line... gale Thu. Gale possible sun into Sun night. .Anz910...East of the great South Channel and south of 39n... gale Thu. Gale possible sun into Sun night. .Anz825...Inner waters from Baltimore Canyon to Cape Charles Light... gale today into Thu. .Anz828...Inner waters from Cape Charles Light to Currituck Beach Light... gale today into Thu. .Anz925...Outer waters from Baltimore Canyon to Hatteras Canyon... gale tonight into Thu. Gale possible sun. .Anz830...Inner waters from Currituck Beach Light to Cape Hatteras... gale today into tonight. .Anz930...Outer waters from Hatteras Canyon to Cape Fear... gale tonight.
.Forecaster Scovil. Ocean prediction center.