Marine Weather for HS 100

Forecast

marine weather discussion for N Atlantic Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 235 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Atlantic ocean W of 50w from 30n to 50n.

The two Gale Warning cyclones will be the focus of the forecast. After broad...weakening ridge moves over the waters tonight...next cold front will quickly follow. Models remain in excellent agreement on the timing of this cold front that is fcst to mov E acrs the waters late tngt and Fri...and the assd sfc low fcst to mov E ovr the nrn waters. A sml area of srly gales will accmpny the front ovr the outer waters Fri. GFS/UKMET/ECMWF/NAM all fcst NW gales btwn low cntr and balt cnyn Fri aftn. The GFS is the MST aggrsv with winds to 40 kt. Fri ngt...a trpl pnt low will dvlp E of Georges Bank and mv NE. The models are hvng some prblms resolvng the details of which low wl be strngr...the trpl pnt low to the E or the western one hanging back...fcst just S of the Gulf of Maine 12z Sat. The quarter deg GFS incrs NW winds to storm frc at 12z Sat. By 00z sun...models agree on this low bcmg the strngr low...with the GFS hinting at storm frc winds again on the back side of the low. Expect winds to dmnsh Sat ngt with gales ending late Sat ngt or early sun.

Next system to affect the waters is low pres the GFS fcst to move off the mid Atlc coast just before 12z. The models are dffrng on S/W energy mvng se into the miss vlly ovr the wknd...which affects the downstream rdg and fcst track of the low. The UKMET is a nthrn and faster outlier. The Gem is slow and to the SW. The new ECMWF supports the GFS...except it is not quite as strng. Both the GFS and ECMWF track the low inbtwn the UKMET and Gem. Cnsdrng the op GFS is sqaurley in the mdl of its ensmbl members...wl stay with the op GFS thru the fcst. Ex[ect SW winds incrsng to gale frc S of Balt canyon late sun ngt...with gale frc winds S of 42n Mon. The qrtr deg GFS shows winds reaching storm frc ovr the far ern waters nr balt cnyn Mon and NW storm S of Georges abk briefly Mon ngt. With cnfdc only fair...wl limit winds to 45 kt Max. Winds wl quickly dmnsh Mon ngt into Tue..then mod SW winds may dvlp ovr the Gulf of Maine Tue ngt.

.Seas...The 12z multogrid wavewatch initlzd well today and wave obs are vry close to model fcst. Wavewatch gdnc looks good and wl be fllwd closely thru the fcst...though wil boost winds in the strng W to NW flow events. The ECMWF wam compares well...except its seas are about 1 to 5 ft higher thru the fcst.

.Extratropical storm surge guidance...The estofs dvlps a neg surge of 1 to 1.5 ft dvlpg along the mid Atlc coast Fri ngt and xpndg nwd towards long isld Sat mrng...before dmnshg Sat ngt into sun.

.Warnings...Preliminary.

.Nt1 New England waters... .anz800...Gulf of Maine... gale Fri night. Gale possible Sat into Sat night. .Anz805...Georges Bank west of 68w... gale Fri night. Gale possible Sat into Sat night. Gale possible Mon into Mon night. .Anz900...Georges Bank east of 68w... gale possible Sat into Sat night. Gale possible Mon into Mon night. .Anz810...South of New England... gale Fri night. Gale possible Sat into Sat night. Gale possible Mon into Mon night. .Anz815...South of Long Island... gale Fri into Fri night. Gale possible Sat into Sat night. Gale possible Mon into Mon night.

.Nt2 mid Atlc waters... .anz820...Hudson Canyon to Baltimore Canyon... gale Fri into Fri night. Gale possible Sat. Gale possible Mon into Mon night. .Anz915...Hudson Canyon to the great South Channel... gale Fri into Fri night. Gale possible Sat into Sat night. Gale possible Mon into Mon night. .Anz920...Baltimore Canyon to the great South Channel... gale Fri into Fri night. Gale possible Sat into Sat night. Gale possible Mon into Mon night. .Anz905...The great South Channel to the Hague line... gale Fri into Fri night. Gale possible Sat into Sat night. Gale possible Mon into Mon night. .Anz910...East of the great South Channel and south of 39n... gale Fri into Fri night. Gale possible Sat into Sat night. Gale possible Mon into Mon night. .Anz825...Inner waters from Baltimore Canyon to Cape Charles Light... gale Fri into Fri night. Gale possible Sat. Gale possible Mon into Mon night. .Anz828...Inner waters from Cape Charles Light to Currituck Beach Light... gale Fri into Fri night. Gale possible Sat. Gale possible Sun night into Mon night. .Anz925...Outer waters from Baltimore Canyon to Hatteras Canyon... gale Fri into Fri night. Gale possible Sat. Gale possible Sun night into Mon night. .Anz830...Inner waters from Currituck Beach Light to Cape Hatteras... gale Fri into Fri night. Gale possible Sat. Gale possible Sun night into Mon night. .Anz833...Inner waters from Cape Hatteras to Cape Fear... gale Fri into Fri night. Gale possible Sun night into Mon night. .Anz930...Outer waters from Hatteras Canyon to Cape Fear... gale Fri into Fri night. Gale possible Sat. Gale possible Sun night into Mon night. .Anz835...Inner waters from Cape Fear to 31n... gale possible Mon. .Anz935...Outer waters from Cape Fear to 31n... gale Fri. Gale possible Mon into Mon night.

$$

.Forecaster prosise. Ocean prediction center.

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