Marine Weather for HS 100

Forecast

marine weather discussion for N Atlantic Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 922 am EDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Atlantic ocean W of 50w from 30n to 50n.

Weak warm front extends ESE...just of balt cnyn. Front makes little to no change in the wind field as winds are lgt S to SW 10 to 20 kt thru out the offshr waters...except W to SW 10 kt or less just S of the wrm front seas cont in the 2 to 4 ft range... and agree well with the model guess. Will only make minor changes to the fcst update.

----------------------------------------------------------------- Previous discussion...

The IR Sat img contne to show most of the convcn ascctd with a fnrtl sysm ovr the srn wtrs with most of the ligtng confined to the wrn parts. The radar still has strong tstms cells ovr the far srn wtrs. More widespread tstms cells are still inland ovr the se states and are not slated to move into the fcst wtrs. At 23/06z a broad hgh pres maintains its ridge acrs the nrn wtrs while a quasi-stnry frnt acrs the srn wtrs is now slowly lifting N as a wrm frnt. The pres grdnt is quite slack and the Max obs winds are only 15 kt. The latst ascat pass at 0224z only touched the cntrl region and had no winds above 15 kt.

The glbl mdls hv initialized well and they agree well on the few features affecting the region but some mnr diffs could be noted as a cld fnrt approaches from the W. Mdls wil likely differ on the strength of the trof along the frntl sys. Curr mdls dont agree well on the posn of the weak lows that will form along the frnt. It is not easy to Pin-Point an outlier mdl because all the mdls depict the weak lows along the frnt. The Euro mdl pushes an extra low ovr the cntrl region but agrees with the rst of the mdl for the other low ovr the nrn wtrs. Mdls do not depict mjr energy pushed ovr the region in the short term and that will just contne to keep weaker sys ovr the region. There is some sig energy slated for Mon ovr the mid states that wil change things ovr the region after Mon. Mdls are also showing some cut off enrgy to mingle ovr the cntrl Atlc. For this pckge wil not deviate from the previous forecast and will maintain similar winds with no wrngs in the fcst. Wil do a blend of GFS UKMET and ecmwfhr and wil use wna for seas in the short term while the ecwam will be used in the xtndd prd.

In the short term the frnt will drift N as a wrm frnt but will remain ovr the srn wtrs and will finally dsipt. The pres grdnt will remain slack ovr the entire area and so no winds wrngs N the fcst. Another frnt will approach the wtrs but will slow down after reaching the wtrs because hgh pres to the se will block it and so it will weakens especiall ovr the srn portions.

.Seas...The seas are equally mediocore ranging btwn 2 and 4 ft and both nww3 multi grid and ecmwfwave hv very similar seas pattern and are very close to that of the obs.

.Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.

.Warnings...Preliminary.

.Nt1 New England waters... None.

.Nt2 mid Atlc waters... None.

$$

.Forecaster prosise/musonda. Ocean prediction center.

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