marine weather discussion for N Atlantic Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 213 am EST sun Mar 1 2015
.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Atlantic ocean W of 50w from 30n to 50n.
The recent pattern of strong high pres areas quickly followed by cold fronts will continue for the fcst periods. Tonights model runs have come into better agreement...with manily minor dffrncs btwn the models.
As large high pres floats E of the waters...winds will veer S to SW today and incrs. Models show cold front dvlpng just offshore early tngt...extending FM weak low just E of Cape May...S to near cape httrs then just off the Carolina coast. The GFS looks a lttl overdone in the srly flow just ahd of the front...and wl trim back to GFS winds init to 20 kt. Front is expected to rapidly move se across the waters tngt and early Mon as assd low mvs NE at 40 kt and deepens over 40 mbs in 24 hours. The GFS/UKMET/ECMWF agree on nrrw band of SW gales dvlpng just ahd of the front btwn Georges Bank and httrs cnyn by 12z Mon. Then as low rapidly insntfys Mon...will fllw GFS 30m winds in dvlpng NW gales ovr the waters N of httrs cnyn Mon...before dmnshg Mon ngt.
Next area of high pres races E ovr the region aob 50 kt Tue and quickly mvs off to the E. GFS/ECMWF/UKMET agree on winds again veering S ton SW and incrsng to 25 kt by 00z Wed. As sfc low deepens and mvs NE ovr srn que Wed ngt...models all dvlp SW gales ovr the waters. Qstn is estmtg the strngth of the SW winds and the extent of gales. The GFS 30m winds incrs to storm frc by 12z Wed just S of geobes bank. These may be a bit overdone in the SW stable flow and wl favor the GFS 10m winds here and wl cap them at 45 kt. The ECMWF/UKMET/Gem all fcst gales FM about Georges Bank SW to httrs cnyn...so cnfdc is high for this event. The GFS/ECMWF/ Gem are in vry gd agrmnt on mvmnt of front S to se'wrd ovr the waters Wed and Wed ngt...with area of SW gales preceding the front. GFS fcst storm frc winds for a brf period ovr the waters se of Georges Bank. These winds are much higher then any other of the models and cnfdc for Strom frc winds is not that high...so wl cap winds brfly at 47 kt.
By 00z Fri...wl stay with GFS/ECMWF in taking front just E of the sthrn waters. The Gem and UKMET hold the front fthr N. Both the GFS and ECMWF show winds mainly in the 25 to 30 kt range gri night. Given the that strng N to NE flow events are usually underdone by the models...wl carry the nrly Post frntl gales FM Thu into Thu ngt.
.Seas...The multigrid wavewatch iii model appears to hv initlzd well tngt. Obsrvd seas are within a ft of model gdnc. Wavewatch model fcst looks good...though lttl overdone in the strng srly flow events. The ECMWF wam is smlr...except for lower seas under areas of strng SW flow...so plan to blend in 20 pct of the wam into the wavewatch gdnc.
.Extratropical storm surge guidance...In the strong nely gradient acrs the srn nt2 wtrs...smlr to their prev respective runs the latest estofs conts to fcst a surge of 1 to 1.5 ft S of Cape Lookout today..and gradu dmnshng. Then on Mon...in the strong wnwly gradient the estofs is fcstg a negative surge of 1 to 2 ft N of the VA CAPES that persist into Mon ngt then dmnshs as the offshore winds weaken. The etss model keeps surge values at under one ft thru this same period.
.Nt1 New England waters... .anz800...Gulf of Maine... gale Mon into Mon night. Gale possible Wed night. .Anz805...Georges Bank west of 68w... gale Mon into Mon night. Gale possible Tue night into Wed. .Anz900...Georges Bank east of 68w... gale Mon into Mon night. Gale possible Tue night into Wed. .Anz810...South of New England... gale Mon into Mon night. Gale possible Tue night into Wed. .Anz815...South of Long Island... gale Mon. Gale possible Tue night into Wed.
.Nt2 mid Atlc waters... .anz820...Hudson Canyon to Baltimore Canyon... gale Mon. Gale possible Tue night into Wed. .Anz915...Hudson Canyon to the great South Channel... gale Mon into Mon night. Gale possible Tue night into Wed. .Anz920...Baltimore Canyon to the great South Channel... gale tonight into Mon. Gale possible Tue night into Wed. .Anz905...The great South Channel to the Hague line... gale tonight into Mon night. Gale possible Tue night. Gale possible Wed. .Anz910...East of the great South Channel and south of 39n... gale tonight into Mon night. Gale possible Tue night into Wed. .Anz825...Inner waters from Baltimore Canyon to Cape Charles Light... gale Mon. Gale possible Tue night into Wed. .Anz828...Inner waters from Cape Charles Light to Currituck Beach Light... gale possible Tue night into Wed. Gale possible Thu. .Anz925...Outer waters from Baltimore Canyon to Hatteras Canyon... gale Mon. Gale possible Tue night into Wed. Gale possible Thu into Thu night. .Anz830...Inner waters from Currituck Beach Light to Cape Hatteras... gale possible Tue night into Wed. Gale possible Thu. .Anz833...Inner waters from Cape Hatteras to Cape Fear... gale possible Wed. Gale possible Thu into Thu night. .Anz930...Outer waters from Hatteras Canyon to Cape Fear... gale possible Tue night into Wed. Gale possible Thu into Thu night. .Anz835...Inner waters from Cape Fear to 31n... gale possible Thu into Thu night. .Anz935...Outer waters from Cape Fear to 31n... gale possible Thu into Thu night.
.Forecaster prosise. Ocean prediction center.