marine weather discussion for N Atlantic Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 230 PM EDT Wed 12 Mar 2014
.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Atlantic ocean W of 50w from 30n to 50n.
12z mdls all have been too strong and indicating too rapid an increase in the S to SW winds this afternoon...which is not surprising given strong waa especially over colder offshr waters. Forecast confidence with offshore gales tngt thru Thu ngt is well above avg as most recent mdls remain in very good agreement with strong fropa. Have less forecast confidence with winds reaching storm force but given strength of caa allowing enhanced mixing over glf stream will maintain over balt cnyn to Hague line waters like in previous nt2 forecast. Over the past couple cycles mdls have generally backed off on strength of Post frontal winds. For these Post frontal winds favoring slightly hier 12z GFS 30m or first sigma layer winds. Tstms continuing off se coast ahead of mid/upper lvl shrtwv moving off NE FL/GA coast...and shud persist thru much of the tngt period. Meanwhile line of convection assoc with strong cold front has become better organized as it moves E thru Appalachians. Cold shelf waters in 4c to 7c range shud limit destabilization as line moves off the coast but still some potential for higher gusts in tstms over these mid Atlc zones.
12z mdls are in good agremeent that gales shud expire over ern most offshr areas Thu ngt...and that strong high pres ridge shud reach the mid Atlc and new engl coasts early Fri. 12z GFS/UKMET and 00z ECMWF are consistent with timing of next cold front thru nt1 and nrn nt2 waters Sat...and are even in agremeent that S to SW winds shud increase to 25 or 30 kt ahead of front Fri ngt and Sat N of Cape Fear.
By sun/Mon 12z GFS and 12z UKMET both trended twrd the previously preferred ECMWF which over past few runs has been less suppressed in tracking dvlpg sfc low off the se coast and NE across glf stream. 00z ECMWF is still a bit stronger than 12z GFS/UKMET and also offers a low track slighly NW of these mdls. If 12z ECMWF is consistent with its previous run will most likely populate with its winds sun/Mon. As for these winds based on trend seen in GFS and UKMET along with favored ECMWF will add gales to at least mid Atlc zones late sun into Mon. Timing of op mdls in moving another high pres ridge close to mid Atlc coast late Mon is consistent.
.Seas...Latest offshr ship/buoy obs indicating that 12z multigrid wavewatch iii sig WV hgts are initially around 2 to 4 ft too high...with hiest discrepancies S of Hatteras cnyn. With strong fropa tngt into Thu ngt the 00z ECMWF wave mdl is generally 3 ft hier than past couple runs of mww3. Will continue with 50/50 blend to account for these differrences. Then in the extended sun/Mon will transition to close to 100 percent ECMWF wave mdl.
.Extratropical storm surge guidance...In the wake of the dvlpg sfc low and cold fropa...the 12z estofs remains consistent in fcstg a more sig negative surge to dvlp tonite into Fri from S to N along the coasts than fcst by the 12z etss. Estofs values are about double those of etss. 50/50 blend of the above guidance is likely most reasonable solution.
.Warnings...Preliminary. Any changes will be coordinated through AWIPS 12 planet chat or by telephone:
.Nt1 New England waters... .anz081...Gulf of Maine... gale tonight into Thu night. .Anz082...Georges Bank... gale tonight into Thu night. Gale possible Mon. .Anz083...South of New England... gale tonight into Thu night.
.Nt2 mid Atlc waters... .anz084...Hudson Canyon to Baltimore Canyon... gale tonight into Thu night. .Anz094...Baltimore Canyon to Hague line... gale tonight. Storm Thu. Gale Thu night. Gale possible Mon. .Anz085...Baltimore Canyon to Hatteras Canyon... gale tonight into Thu night. Gale possible Sun night into Mon. .Anz086...Hatteras Canyon to Cape Fear... gale tonight into Thu. Gale possible Sun night into Mon night. .Anz088...Cape Fear to 31n... gale tonight into Thu. Gale possible Sun night into Mon.
.Forecaster Clark. Ocean prediction center.
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