marine weather discussion for N Atlantic Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 808 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015
.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Atlantic ocean W of 50w from 30n to 50n.
Update...18z NCEP sfc analysis shows a warm fnt extndg W to E across the nrn nt1 wtrs...and a low pres trof aprchg srn new eng and the mid Atlc coast. Latest avail ascat data from 14z and 15z this mrng was showing SW winds of 20 to 25 kt over the far ern part of the nrn and cntrl nt2 zones...and winds to 20 kt across the SW part of the nt2 area. Lightning density product data at 2330z indicates a line of sct showers/tstms extndg NE to SW over the ofshr wtrs.
The Med rng mdls are in gud overall agreemnt across the ofshr wtrs thru the fcst prd...so the representative GFS 30m soln will be used to populate the wind grids. The wna version of the wavewatch iii mdl has gud support from the ECMWF wam...so it will be used for the sea ht grids thru the entire fcst prd. Am not planning to make any signif changes to the current fcst trend.
----------------------------------------------------------------- Previous discussion...
The latest sfc analysis indicated low pres inland over the NE U.S. With a stationary front extending E across the far srn New England offshore waters. An ascat pass from 1445z did indicate a few gales to the E of the nrn portion of nt2 waters...however this was in an area of convection and suspect these are likely gusts. Over the offshore waters...the strongest winds were mainly in the 20 to 25 kt range.
The 12z models continue to be in decent agreement through the fcst period...though there continue to be detail differences mainly with timing of lows moving off the coast during the next few days. The models all agree moving next cold front se across the nt1 waters Thu...and into the nt2 waters Thu night and Fri before becoming stationary. Several weak lows will move NE along the front Fri into Sat night which will enhance the SW flow over the nrn and central nt2 waters...however all of the models do keep winds subgale. High pres will build over the area sun into early Mon...with another weak low moving across the nt2 waters late Mon and Mon night. Will populate grids using the 12z GFS 30m winds which will result in only minor changes to existing fcst.
.Seas...The 18z sea state analysis indicated that observed seas continue to match up well with the mww3/ECMWF values. Will populate grids using the mww3 as there are only very minor differences compared to ECMWF wam.
.Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.
.Nt1 New England waters... None.
.Nt2 mid Atlc waters... None.
.Forecaster Scovil/kosier. Ocean prediction center.