marine weather discussion for N Atlantic Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 306 am EDT Sat Aug 2 2014
.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Atlantic ocean W of 50w from 30n to 50n.
Summary...latest ascat hi-res passes and buoy obs are showing light winds over most of the ofshr wtrs. A stnry fnt extnds NE to SW across the nt2 wtrs this mrng...and recent lightning strike data shows a line of showers/tstms alg the fntl bndry S of 38n.
The stnry fnt will drift N across the area as a weak warm fnt today...as a ridge builds W towards the wtrs. The fnt will stall just N of the nt2 wtrs Sun night...then dsipt Mon as the ridge builds W over the ofshr wtrs Mon and Mon nite. Tropical Storm Bertha will move N and approach the se nt2 wtrs Mon nite...pass over the se waters Tue...then move E of the region Tue nite. See the latest NHC advisory on Bertha. A weak cold front will move se over the nt1 and nrn nt2 wtrs Tue nite and Wed. Another ridge will build NW of the area Wed and Wed night.
Models...00z Gem has signif timing problems with main wx ftrs on Mon...but othw is vry similar to the 00z GFS. 00z GFS/NOGAPS in vry close agreemnt. 00z ECMWF/UKMET are faster with Bertha...but othw are in gud overall agreemnt with the 00z GFS. Since the GFS has been the closest mdl to NHC ofcl track fcst for Bertha...will be using it for the wind grids unless there are signif changes to the NHC track fcst with the 06z cycle.
.Seas...00z multigrid ww3 and 00z ECMWF wam are in gud agreemnt over the cstl/ofshr wtrs into Mon. ECMWF wam looks vry underdone with the seas around Bertha from late Mon thru Wed nite. Am planning to use the 00z mww3 guidance thru the fcst prd...but will adjust for track of Bertha.
.Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.
.Nt1 New England waters... None.
.Nt2 mid Atlc waters... .anz925...outer waters from Baltimore Canyon to Hatteras Canyon... tropical storm possible Tue into Tue night. .Anz930...Outer waters from Hatteras Canyon to Cape Fear... tropical storm possible Mon night into Tue. .Anz935...Outer waters from Cape Fear to 31n... tropical storm possible Mon night into Tue.
.Forecaster Scovil. Ocean prediction center.