marine weather discussion for N Atlantic Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 851 am EDT Wed Sep 17 2014
.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Atlantic ocean W of 50w from 30n to 50n.
Summary...the IR Sat imgry is still showing convection over the srn nt2 wtrs this mrng...with the lightning product showing isol/sct showers and tstms across the srn nt2 zones. Latest avail ascat pass at 0126z had no winds above 17 kt across the ofshr areas. Hurcn Edouard was at 35.1n 55.4w at 17/09z this mrng based on the latest NHC advisory...which puts it well E of the ofshr wtrs but still within the mim area. Low pres will pass E across the srn nt2 wtrs today into tonite...then move NE and pass se of the Georges Bank area Thu and strengthen. Stg hi pres will build in from the NW Thu night into Fri night...move E of the area Sat while extending a ridge W across the nt1 and nrn nt2 wtrs...then weaken sun. A cold front will approach the new eng and New Jersey coasts from the W sun and sun nite.
Models...the Med rng mdls are all in gud agreemnt thru the fcst prd...with the ECMWF/GFS in closest agreemnt across the ofshr wtrs. Will be using the representative GFS 10m for the wind grids. Am not planning to make any signif changes to the current fcst trend.
Seas...ECMWF wam aprs to be under initializing by a few feet over the ofshr wtrs...and is a few feet lower than the multigrid ww3 mdl thru Thu. With longer prd E to se swell from hurcn Edouard expctd to move into the ofshr areas thru Thu...will be using the more robust mww3 for the wave ht grids.
.Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.
.Nt1 New England waters... None.
.Nt2 mid Atlc waters... None.
.Forecaster Scovil. Ocean prediction center.