Marine Weather for HS 100

Forecast

marine weather discussion for N Atlantic Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 905 am EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Atlantic ocean W of 50w from 30n to 50n.

Fairly weak pattern to continue across the offshore waters during most of the forecast period. High pres currently centered across the New England offshore waters will move E of the area today and tonight. A weak cold front will approach the nt1 and nrn nt2 waters Sun night. SW winds ahead of the front will be as high as 20 or 25 kt before weakening again by Mon. SW winds will again increase to 20 or 25 kt across the NW mid Atlantic offshore waters by late Mon as weak low pres forms near the srn New England coast. This weak low will then move E of the offshore waters by late Tue. Mainly light winds should then continue across most of the offshore waters the remainder of the forecast period. Current forecast looks reasonable and will continue to carry no warnings across the offshore waters during the forecast period.

The nww3 looks reasonable with the seas and will be followed fairly closely during the forecast period.

Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.

----------------------------------------------------------------- Previous discussion...

The models remain in very good agreement tonight. Differences between the GFS/ECMWF/UKMET are 5 kt or less through almost alll the forecast. Weak stnry front off the SC coast will gradually and quietly dsipt today. Next frature is cold front fcst to appch the nrn waters late sun. Models hv bn inconsistent on whthr front hangs up acrs the Gulf of Maine with psbl wk low pres late Mon and Tue. Tngts runs only hint at that...and pretty much maintain SW flow...so will stay with SW winds incrsng to 15 to 20 kt sun N of httrs canyon. Front will wash out and be replaced by scnd appchg boundry Tue. GFS winds look a tad ovrdn at times...esp compared to ECMWF and UKMET...so wl cap winds at 20 kt...except will let winds rise to 25 kt as the GFS/ECMWF are in agrmnt here. Models remain in excellent agrmnt with front pushing se ovr the nrn waters Wed...with GFS/ECMWF/UKMET nearly identical in taking front S to just N of cape httrs by 12z Thu.

.Seas...The 00z wavewatch iii initialized well tonight. Wave model gdnc looks good and will be fllwd closely.

.Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.

.Warnings...Preliminary.

.Nt1 New England waters... None.

.Nt2 mid Atlc waters... None.

$$

.Forecaster nolt/prosise. Ocean prediction center.

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