HS 102

marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 1245 am PDT Wed 16 may 2012

.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.

Opc sfc map at 06z places a 1026 mb high W of the cntrl pz6 wtrs nr 35n135w. A ridge extends N from the center to a second 1036 mb high NW of the ofshr wtrs nr 52n145w. An ascat pass around 06z indicates highest wnds of 20-30 kt are across the NE prtn of the N pz5 wtrs and SW of Vancouver Isle. Ltst obs across the ofshr and cstl wtrs compare well with the init of the 00z GFS wnds.

Overall 00z glbl mdls are in gud agrmt thru most of the fcst period with the 00z GFS to be preferred. High pres NW of the area will shift se towards the ofshr zones tdy. Wnds are xpctd to incr to gale frc over the NE prtn of the N pz5 wtrs late tdy and continue into early Thu ngt. The high will then push S tngt into Thu. Meanwhile a low pres trof will strengthen along the CST. The result will be a tightened pres gradient over the ofshr zones. Wnds to gale frc are likely over the N/cntrl pz6 wtrs late Thu into Fri before diminishing. There is still uncertainty wrt low pres mvg towards the nrn wtrs Sat and sun. Will maintain continuity for now and wait for better mdl agrmt.

Seas...00z run of ww3 is within 1-2 ft of ltst obs across the ofshr and cstl wtrs. Plan on staying close to ww gdnc for next fcst pkg.

Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.

.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... .Cape Flattery to Cape Lookout...gale tdy into Thu ngt...mod confdc. .Cape Lookout to point St George...None.

.Pz6 California waters... .Pt St George to pt Arena...gale Thu into Fri...low to mod confdc. .Pt Arena to pt Conception...Gale Thu ngt into Fri...low to mod confdc. .Pt Conception to Guadalupe island...None.

.Forecaster banks. Ocean forecast branch.