Historic Blizzard of 2009...
Thoughts on December 19-21th Snowstorm...
COMING FRIDAY NIGHT!!!
Timeline...
COMING FRIDAY NIGHT!!!
Radar...
Warnings...
NAO...
This is my current snow/no snow line...
Due to all snow as far south as southern North Carolina, I will post the snow/no snow line across northern areas...
Youngstown, OH - Oil City, PA - Du Bois, PA - Philipsburg, PA - Lewisburg, Pa - Bloomsburg, PA - Scranton, PA - New Milford, PA
*Areas north of line receive less than a dusting of snow, and areas to south see over .1inch of snow. This line may shift southward depending on dry air to north and eastern trends on mesoscale high resolution models.
Storm Reports...
Snow reports already over southern Middle Atlantic...
...SELECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IN INCHES FROM 700 AM EST FRI DEC
18 THROUGH 900 PM EST FRI DEC 18...
...KENTUCKY...
PINEVILLE 6.0
DORTON 3.0
...NORTH CAROLINA ...
BOONE 16.0
WEST ASHEVILLE 15.0
FLEETWOOD 14.0
WAYNESVILLE 13.8
WOODLAWN 13.0
GLENDALE SPRINGS 12.5
FLETCHER 12.0
MORGANTON 11.0
WEST JEFFERSON 10.0
ASHEVILLE 7.0
...VIRGINIA...
BLUEFIELD 13.0
BANDY 10.0
LAKE MONTICELLO 9.0
COVESVILLE 2SSE 8.5
COLUMBIA 7.0
ELK CREEK 7.0
ROANOKE 7.0
GREENVILLE 3E 6.5
BANDY 6.0
RICHMOND 3.0
CHARLOTTESVILLE 2.2
...WEST VIRGINIA...
SPANISHBURG 8.5
RAINELLE 8.0
LEWISBURG 7.8
ATHENS 7.0
Storm Impacts...
1. Historic amounts likely towards northern Virginia and all of Maryland up to two feet above 1000ft towards western Virginia.
2. Widespread travel impacts on busy holiday travel up and down east coast including I-95.
3. Blowing and drifting snow likely with potentially high drifts and whiteout conditions.
4. Mesoscale banding over northern Virginia, southeastern Pennsylvania, and Maryland may account for 2in/hr snow rates.
5. Widespread impacts with sharp cutoff on a very defined, but uncertain northern location in central Pennsylvania.
Snow Map...
*Note I am accounting for elevation, orographic lift, and mesoscale banding. The 12in+ zone is for those location courtesy of a slightly higher elevation than surrounding areas near 600' and for the optimum location in mesoscale banding. The northward extent in western Pennsylvania is courtesy of orographic lift for southern facing ridges. I do add a sharp cut-off between heavy snow and little to no snow, which will be difficult to pin down. It is already evident the effects the dry air is having on the north side of the system. This line may shift south depending on storm track, especially if HIRES NMM is correct. Keep in mind though despite the northwest trend in guidance on storm day this year, I did go pretty conservative for northern areas accounting for lack of lift and dry air.
Selected City Accumulations for the Northeast...
Hagerstown, MD- Heavy snow; 6-12in of snow.
Baltimore, MD- Heavy snow; 10-19in of snow.
Washington, DC- Blizzard conditions; 10-18in of snow.
Wilmington, DE- Heavy snow; 8-16in of snow.
Dover, DE- Blizzard conditions; 8-15in of snow.
Trenton, NJ- Blizzard conditions; 7-14in of snow.
New York City, NY- Blizzard conditions; 7-14in of snow.
Poughkeepsie, NY- Moderate snow; 3-6in of snow.
Binghamton, NY- Flurries and snow showers; C-1in of snow.
Albany, NY- Flurries and snow showers; C-1in of snow.
Hartford, CT- Heavy snow; 5-10in of snow.
Concord, NH- Mostly cloudy skies.
Providence, RI- Blizzard conditions; 5-10in of snow.
Worcester, MA- Moderate snow; 2-4in of snow.
Boston, MA- Moderate snow; 2-4in of snow.
Nantucket, MA- Blizzard conditions; 5-12in of snow.
Hyannis, MA- Blizzard conditions; 6-12in of snow.
Portland, ME- Flurries and clouds; Trace of snow.
Bangor, ME- Cloudy skies and breezy.
"Subject to Change"
Model Analysis
COMING FRIDAY NIGHT!!!
After the storm...
COMING FRIDAY NIGHT!!!
Please post storm reports in this blog from across the Northeast during the winter storm and please post location of observation in each report...
This blog is in progress. Check back soon...
"Here northeast of Harrisburg 2009-2010 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- 9.00in with higher drifts
Monthly Total- 13.0in
Seasonal Total- 13.0in
Winter Weather Advisories- 2
Winter Storm Warnings- 1
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 1
Winter Storm Watches- 1
(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 28.0F
Lowest Low Temperature- 17.1F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0
(Winter Storms Stats)
Dec 5 - 1.5in - First accumulating snow of season
Dec 8-9 - 2.5in - Snow changed to plain rain
Dec 13 - .1in - Freezing rain
Dec 19 - 9.0in - Heavy snow, higher amounts to south
Reader Comments
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Looks like for the big winners from Saturday, this should be mostly rain which could cause some flooding issues if enough falls. Granted places like DC and Philadelphia may have a hefty snowbank to cut into, if a few inches of rain were to fall, things could be disastrous.
Meanwhile further west and north, CAD may create a significant icing event for areas such as the Susquehanna, Cumberland, Shenandoah and maybe Roanoke Valleys. Depends on how strong the low remains throughout.
I remember after the '96 storm about a week later it rained like crazy. Wilkes barre had to be evacuated due to severe flooding.
thanks ahead of time for making this blog
I am sort of excited for it, lol. I went through some archives of model runs and such including bufkit data to explore verification at 'x' hours out. But first I will explore the mesoscale approach to the system with my explanation on localized baraclinic zones producing higher snow totals and surface fronts with radar images from storm to accompany discussion.
ill be looking forward to it. i can't think of another storm that had such a sharp cutoff of snow amounts.
Thanks. Yeah it definitely is. More snow tomorrow and tomorrow night, but nothing in the way of accumulations. Storm is interesting around New Year's Day. Maine could get more then a foot of snow. 12z NAM is further south then the GFS.
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