Posted by:Buckey2745, 11:12 AM GMT on April 24, 2010
8:24pm With the SPC's issuance of the Tornado Watch to our south, I'm beginning to shift my focus for tonight from severe to possible heavy rainfall. The nose of this convective system will affect our area within the next hour or so, without the severe element.
Once this starts pushing through we could be in for a few hours of rainfall. The radar image below (which may be slow to load) shows the movement of the system and it seems obvious that Columbus will get the heavy rain, but we could be right on the line as a new bow echo forms just south:
8:07pm The Tornado Watch was issued to an area just south of us:
7:36pm We'll be under a watch soon. Presumably our first Tornado Watch of the season, but possibly just a Thunderstorm Watch.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0381 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0545 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY...SERN IND AND SRN OH
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 242245Z - 242345Z
A NEW WW WILL BE NEEDED FOR ERN KY...SERN IND AND SRN OH DOWNSTREAM FROM QLCS MOVING NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL KY.
DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM OF QLCS OVER CENTRAL KY...OCCURRING WITHIN ZONE OF INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ON THE NOSE OF APPROACHING UPPER SPEED MAX. INTENSE VEERING WIND FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE AS QLCS RAPIDLY MOVES NEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY REGION. AN ADDITIONAL WW DOWNSTREAM OF WW 96 WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON.
6:04pm Rain is finally moving in to our area, however nothing severe yet...
6pm Local Radar
We've got a large area of rain that will start to work in, but it looks like our best chance for severe as now moved to overnight. Just because the sun goes down doesn't mean the threat will subside, and it looks like there's a mean line about 300 miles to our southwest that we may need to keep an eye on:
6pm Regional Radar
This line actually has a confirmed tornado on the ground right now between Jackson and Nashville, TN. If this line stays together as it heads northeast it won't be as strong, but could still produce damaging thunderstorm winds.
Already today a strong tornado hit the town of Yazoo City, MS, so this has been the most significant severe weather outbreak of the spring so far. This will probably be a long night in Ohio.
12:36pm Destabilization should now begin to occur rapidly. While temps aren't outrageous (upper 60's), it's not going to take much heating to charge the atmosphere.
Our first line of rain was very light in nature, which should lead to a pretty good line of severe weather to move through right around dark.
There's a large break in the action, all the way down to Tennessee. Between here and there, broken clouds. This is favorable.
12pm Regional Radar
However, the unfortunate reality is that the worst of this weather will probably stay to our west. With each update from the SPC they continue to move their Moderate risk area further north in to Central Indiana, but not further east toward Ohio.
We're still in for some severe weather, but not the worst.
7:00am The SPC has issued their first "High" probability for severe weather this season. The area is centered over Mississippi and Alabama, with a dangerous potential for violent tornadoes.
SPC Convective Outlook for Today
Back home, no where near the High threat, but we've gotten in to the Slight threat for about the third time this year. Our best chances will come later this afternoon after a warm front advances in to our area (which is currently located over Central Kentucky).
Our best chance for severe today will depend on how fast our first area of rain moves out so our atmosphere can have a chance to destabilize.
Regional Radar at 7am
This area is already beginning to diminish in intensity, so there's a good chance we could get CAPE values close to 1000 J/KG's by mid-late afternoon.