A Week of Changes
It's possible we could see a 40° swing in temperatures this week. We'll be affected by two different systems over the next few days and each will bring their own bag of precipitation. Right now on Monday afternoon we sit at a rather balmy 40°. By Friday morning we could be at 0°. That's a wakeup call.
Starting tonight in to tomorrow, another potential east coast system will begin rolling through. We're going to get a pretty good warm sector out ahead of the secondary low coming from the Upper Plains, so no snow to speak of. We're just south of an area that actually could have a chance of some freezing rain tonight, with advisories already posted in Cleveland. But our surface temperatures should stay just above freezing, and aloft it'll be warmer than that.
We may end up seeing some very light snow showers on the backside of this storm Wednesday. The low will transfer its energy to another system on the east coast and put us in a NW flow for Wednesday. That'll fire up some lake enhanced snow showers, but nothing accumulating it looks like right now.
By Thursday it looks like we might have some promise. Our good friend, the southern low pressure, will pay us a visit. Still being a few days away, it's hard to say exactly where it'll track. For now all models are suggesting it'll stay pretty far south, but snow will develop well in advance of the storm. That's where our week gets good.
HWO for Thursday:
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FRONT...MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF SNOW TO
FALL...BUT THE EXACT LOCATION AND DURATION OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS
STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS
FOR UPDATES ON THIS WINTER SYSTEM.
Track of Thursday's southern low
The jet will dip in the center of the country after this storm passes on Tuesday, meaning Thursday's storm will probably drop far south as is comes out of the Rockies. What's interesting is by Thursday morning it'll be positioned over North Texas, but moisture will be jetted well ahead of the center, on a line from Texas to Ohio. That's when we should begin to get our accumulating snow.
What's unknown is how far north the track will eventually turn. If we get it in to Kentucky, we could look at a second round of accumulation on Thursday night in to Friday.
After all is said and done, we're going to be left with some of the coldest air this season. Temperatures Friday night after the southern low ejects out to sea will be close to zero. That'll make it hard for temps to recover durin the daytime Saturday and Sunday, even with sun.
It's not a highly active pattern, but it does show promise for at least a little more snow this week. That's good, because all our snowcover will be gone after tomorrow's rains, and winter without snow is just boring.
Winter Weather Advisories- 5
Winter Storm Warnings- 2
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Watches- 1
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0
Blowing Snow Advisory- 0
November: 0" (Predicted: 0")
December: 7.0" (Predicted: 7.0")
January: 4.0" (Predicted: 4.0")
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