March 30th: Slight Risk of Evening Storms
Our active March continues with our latest risk of severe weather this evening. A deeping low pressure is ejecting out of the Plains and in to the Ohio Valley this evening. We've already seen some cold shower activity out ahead of the system this morning, bringing about a tenth of an inch of rain. What this is going to do is leave a fairly moist airmass in place for this afternoon when clouds will break up a bit ahead of the storm and allow decent daytime heating to create our highest CAPE of the season so far. I wouldn't be surprised to see readings around 2000 J/KG this afternoon.
Everything from the SPC points a bullseye to an area from Southern Indiana to Central Ohio for severe storms this afternoon:
Stoms should start firing over Indiana around 5pm. With sunset close to 8pm, storms could reach their climax just as they enter our area. As always, storms will probably evolve from individual super cells in to a well organized line by evening.
While tornadoes are a risk, I see the threat being confined west of here where storms will be supercell in nature.
I'll post later when storms initiate and watches go up.
UPDATE: 2:22pm
A mesoscale discussion points to storm initiation sooner than expected and the issuance of a watch soon.
Everything is in place, so it should just be a matter of time before we see things get interesting...
UPDATE: 3:27pm
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued until 11pm, which means we will most likely see storms evolve into an MCS sooner rather than later, taking away the main tornado threat. Also, this is our first Thunderstorm Watch of the season (two Tornado Watches already, though)
UPDATE: 7:40pm
The line is moving through our area now, sparking multiple Thunderstorm Warnings and one cell northeast of Columbus even has a Tornado Warning.
Small hail is the norm with these storms, but a lot of pictures out of the north side are showing very low hanging clouds.
UPDATE: Saturday Morning
With the storms passed and cooler air working in for our Saturday, it appears only one possible tornado yesterday, just outside of St. Louisville. From the NWS:
SAW FUNNEL CLOUD TOUCH DOWN BUT WAS UNABLE TO SEE ANY DEBRIS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. POSSIBLE TORNADO.
This was reported by an eyewitness and not a trained spotter, so it's very possible this gets dismissed as an actual tornado.
All in all, a pretty typical Spring day here in Central Ohio.
Severe Weather Stats:
Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 1
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3
Tornado Watches: 2
Tornado Warnings: 0
Flood Watches: 1
Flood Warnings: 1
Heat Advisories: 0
Excessive Heat Warnings: 0
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