Central Ohio

LiveBlog: May 22nd Severe Weather for Ohio

Posted by: Buckey2745, 1:48 PM GMT on May 22, 2013

We're looking at our second straight day in a slight risk for severe weather here in Central Ohio, but today seems like a much more widespread chance than yesterday.

First the SPC's severe outlook:

The change from the earlier outlooks is that the threat extends further east, which is a product of the location of the greatest forcing this afternoon.

For us this afternoon I expect the most potent storms to be in the southeast portion of Ohio, leaving Columbus right on the dividing line.

The SPC's mesoscale analysis for early this afternoon shows instability (red lines of CAPE) and shear (blue lines in kts) beginning to ramp up and leaving Columbus right on the edge of both.

This has the potential to be dangerous for us, as we will have just enough instability to allow storms to pop, and just enough shear for them to spin. Points eastward will have more of a chance for bigger storms to fire, but they will be limited to a high wind threat and hail.

I plan on updating after initiation this afternoon, but here are my probabilities for today:

Tornado Warning Chance: 5%
Severe Thunderstorm Warning Chance: 60%

These are the highest chances I've posted all year, so keep alert.

UPDATE: 4:41pm
Severe storms seem pretty unlikely now, at least in the supercell variety. A Thunderstorm Watch has been posted out to our east, but considerable cloudiness has overtaken Central Ohio and really limited our instability. In fact the SPC has taken the southwestern portion of Ohio out of Slight Risk.

A couple of severe cells aren't completely out of the question, but today can probably be labeled a bust.

Updated: 8:44 PM GMT on May 22, 2013

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May 21st: Ohio's Chance of Severe Storms

Posted by: Buckey2745, 1:54 PM GMT on May 21, 2013

Yesterday a tornado that many believe will be rated an EF5 by the National Weather Service tore through Moore, OK. In a scene that not many have seen since Greensburg or Joplin, a populated area was leveled. And not just heavily damaged, we're talking complete devistation.

In the past we have seen the images of houses ruined from these massive twisters, but I don't believe I've ever seen an image like the one below, where entire blocks aren't just ...

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A Beautiful Thunderhead

Posted by: Buckey2745, 11:54 PM GMT on May 18, 2013

While this weekend has been projected to be a relatively quiet weekend in terms of truly severe weather, I did spot an absolutely beautiful Thunderhead developing just southeast of Canal Winchester, OH. Perfect structure, classic anvil top beginning to develop. Just a picturesque scene on a spring evening.

Here's to hoping this produces some lightning to photograph after dark!

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TornadoQuest: Unsettled Weekend, Severe Unlikely

Posted by: Buckey2745, 10:43 PM GMT on May 16, 2013

A stalled frontal boundary parked near the I-70 corridor this weekend will be the focus for afternoon convection on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Unfortunately for the TornadoQuest, none of these storms are expected to be tornadic.

What we should expect is what we saw this afternoon... storms fire south of the boundary and move east to eventually southeast:

Most of these storms will probably stay south of the Columbus are...

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From Rain to Frost

Posted by: Buckey2745, 3:08 PM GMT on May 11, 2013

Yesterday's heavy rain threat never materialized in to a flood event, but we did get our biggest single day rain total of the year here in Canal Winchester with 1.21", crushing the previous high of 0.95" from April.

The rain added to an average year of rain so far, putting us at 11.17", only about 1.64 below average.

The real story will be the cloudy lull today that will lead to a second cold front in 24 hours smashing through our area tonight...

Updated: 3:09 PM GMT on May 11, 2013

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