SPECIAL UPDATE Tropical Storm Alberto. 5/19/2012
Good afternoon and welcome to my SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE for Saturday, May 19th, 2012. Throw out your calendars, Hurricane Season is here! Tropical Storm Alberto has developed at 323N, 776W. Maximum sustained winds are at 45 mph. Alberto developed off a trough split that managed to align itself with an Upper Level low in order to protect itself in a more favorable environment, and was very unexpected but with no surprise was predicted to happen for several days by the ECMWF. Satellite reveals that Alberto is a well organized and small tropical cyclone, with the center of circulation just on the edge of the central dense overcast.
(figure 1. Satellite image of Alberto)
Where will Alberto go and how strong will it get?
Alberto is currently centered just off the coast of South Carolina in a relatively stationary motion. The majority of the models predict that Alberto will skirt the outer banks with no real threat for a serious landfall. The environment around Alberto is semi-favorable, and further strengthening to a stronger system is possible as long as Alberto remains over the warm gulf stream. However, as a trough approaches Alberto shear will increase as it ejects out to sea. Alberto however has until Tuesday AM to attain its peak intensity before weakening.
(figure 2. Model track forecasts for Alberto)
(figure 3. Model intensity forecasts for Alberto)
I will have a much more in-depth update later today or tomorrow morning,