Keeping Tropical Weather Simple

By: GetReal , 9:24 AM GMT on May 04, 2006

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I have over the last several weeks, seen all types of personal conflicts being played out on some blog sites. I hope to keep and dedicate this blog to the simple discussion of tropical weather systems for this upcoming 2006 hurricane season. All opinions and observations about tropical weather are welcome. WE WILL HAVE A CIVIL DISCUSSIONS HERE!!!

Just a little background on myself. I AM NOT A WEATHERMAN, and have never claimed to be one. I am strictly a WEATHER OBSERVER, self taught, that has been intently watching tropical weather systems in the Atlantic basin for over 35 years. I became fascinated with hurricanes in 1965, at age 5, when I experienced Hurricane Betsy in New Orleans. I still reside in the metro New Orleans area, and experienced the west side of Katrina's eye wall. I had to stay, due to my time profession as a law enforcement officer.

In closing, I will never claim to have more knowledge than the NHC, but I still reserve the right to sometimes disagree with them. Everyone should listen to their local officials and the NHC when it comes time to heed an evacuation order.

SST are rising rapidly across the entire Gulf of Mexico and northwest Carribbean. The pieces for the start of the 2006 hurricane season are now falling into place. I still, however, see no signs of Alberto out there. There is still plenty of west wind sheer in the upper levels across the entire Gulf of Mexico and Carribbean Sea. There may be some ridging in the upper levels of the northwest Carribbean seven to ten days from now. I do, however, see what will be the first named tropical system in the East Pacific coming off the coast of Columbia and Costa Rica. That's all for now!!!

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8. GetReal
4:45 AM GMT on May 05, 2006
I agree Alec, it will take at least another 6 to 8 weeks for a deep layer of warm water to form in the Gulf. The current SST setup could only sustain a TD or weak TS. That was one of the reasons Cindy last year did not achieve hurricane status earlier before landfall, even though the upper levels were favorable for development.
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8898
7. Alec
4:25 AM GMT on May 05, 2006
Notice that the SST's in the Gulf are a thin layer of warm water at this time(strong winds and big waves upwelled tons of cooler water a week ago) But as May-September follow, the warm SST will deepen!(a thin layer isnt enough to sustain a major hurricane) Have a great morning!:)
6. DocNDswamp
3:47 AM GMT on May 05, 2006
Hey whazzup GetReal!
Late eve flyby...Glad to see ya got your blog up!
Well, I hope you got more of that rain today (Thu) than I did...As I figured, the T-storms did build back down towards me late aftn, then largely went around to my east! LOL. But picked up .10"...take what we get, eh?

No doubt, there's more where that came from next few days... might be some mud-wallowing going on at JazzFest! LOL!

Catcha soon podnuh.
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4867
5. atmosweather
12:10 AM GMT on May 05, 2006
Hey GetReal,

We are all glad that you are back to help out this year. I am personally very proud that you were in NO to keep as much civility in that city as possible. I agree with you completely about your views on this blog, and I also believe that blogs should be in the form of DISCUSSIONS and not ARGUMENTS. Your tropical weather discussion is very informative, and I have to agree with you that Alberto is not on the horizon just yet.

Have a great night,

Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
4. Skyepony (Mod)
12:06 AM GMT on May 05, 2006
hurry with the pics! you gave us bits & pieces of your Katrina were so busy. How about a blog with the pics about it all to tye up the loose ends? before the season gets going...
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 292 Comments: 41031
3. weatherguy03
1:34 PM GMT on May 04, 2006
We are in trouble now!! Cant wait to see the pics!! So lets see that would make you 45..LOL Have a good day GR!!
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29708
2. GetReal
10:22 AM GMT on May 04, 2006
Congrats to you Raysfan you win the prize, first to post on my blog....
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8898
1. Raysfan70
10:17 AM GMT on May 04, 2006
Welcome back Getreal. See this is going to be another bumpy year. :)

Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57354

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About GetReal

No Environmental Science, or Meteorolgy degrees to be found here. All I can offer is three decades of experience observing tropical Atlantic systems.

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