A NIce Weekend (21-22 NOV)

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number TEN
PERTURBATION TROPICALE, FORMER BONGANI (05-20092010)
4:00 AM Réunion November 25 2009
=========================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance, Former Bongani (1004 hPa) located at 10.9S 51.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The disutrbance is reported as moving west at 6 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T1.5

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 10.9S 49.9E - 25 kts (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 11.1S 48.1E - 30 kts (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 12.7S 44.6E - 25 kts (Perturbation Tropicale)
72 HRS: 14.9S/42.1E - 20 kts (se Dissipant)

Additional Information
========================

Position is based on extrapolation from AMSRE (2207z). If convection has flared up on infrared imagery, NW shows that it is restricted to the southwest quadrant.

1200z model run shows no major change for the intensity forecast: Environmental condition looks less favorable for re-intensification. Actually, if upper level conditions are good, lower level inflow is expected to weaken with a poor monsoon inflow that should now disappear within the next 24 hours and a tradewind inflow that should be disrupted by the northern tip of Madagascar. In fact now, none of the guidance deepen significantly the system.

Latest available Numerical Weather Prediction models remain in good agreement. The system is expected to move on the western edge of a low tropospheric ridge and track west-southwestward within the next three days toward the Comoros archipelago. Only minor adjustments has been done to the previous forecast.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23
TYPHOON NIDA (T0922)
9:00 AM JST November 25 2009
===========================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon Near Marianas Islands

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Nida (950 hPa) located at 10.7N 143.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knot with gusts of 115 knots. The typhoon is reported as moving west-northwest at 11 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Storm Force Winds
===================
70 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
200 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 13.9N 141.2E - 95 kts (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
48 HRS: 16.5N 139.6E - 95 kts (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
72 HRS: 18.4N 139.0E - 95 kts (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ##
9:00 AM JST November 25 2009
===========================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In South China Sea

At 9:00 AM JST, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 6.7N 108.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knot with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving northeast slowly

Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Tropical Depression "URDUJA" has accelerated as it continues to move away from the country.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #8
===============================
At 11:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Urduja located at 10.3ºN 129.0ºE or 320 kms east southeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots.

Signal Warnings
================

Warning Signal #1 (30-60 kph winds)

Mindanao Region
-------------
1.Surigao del Norte
2.Surigao del Sur
3.Siargao Island

Additional Information
========================
Public Storm Warning Signals elsewhere now lowered.

Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes in areas under PSWS # 1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #24
TYPHOON NIDA (T0922)
12:00 PM JST November 25 2009
===========================================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon Near Marianas Islands

At 3:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Nida (935 hPa) located at 11.2N 143.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knot with gusts of 130 knots. The typhoon is reported as moving west-northwest at 12 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity:

Storm Force Winds
===================
70 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
200 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 14.4N 140.7E - 105 kts (CAT 5/Very Intense Typhoon)

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number ELEVEN
PERTURBATION TROPICALE, FORMER BONGANI (05-20092010)
10:00 AM Réunion November 25 2009
=========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance, Former Bongani (1004 hPa) located at 10.7S 50.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The disutrbance is reported as moving west at 7 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T1.5

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 11.0S 48.5E - 25 kts (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 11.5S 46.9E - 25 kts (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS: 13.7S 43.0E - 25 kts (Perturbation Tropicale)
72 HRS: 16.5S 40.5E - 20 kts (se Dissipant)

Additional Information
========================
Position is based on extrapolation from AMSU 0109z. Convection has flared up on infrared imagery during last night, but collapses over the last hours. Microwave shows that convection is restricted to the southwest quadrant.

Available Numerical Weather Prediction models show no major change for the intensity forecast. Environmental conditions seem less favorable for a re-intensification. Actually, if upper level conditions are good, lower level inflow is expected to weaken with a poor monsoon inflow that should now disappear within the next 24 hours and a tradewind inflow that should be disrupted by the northern tip of Madagascar. For now, none of the guidance deepen significantly the system.

Latest available Numerical Weather Prediction models remain in good agreement: The system is expected to move along the northwestern edge of a low tropospheric ridge and track west-southwest within the next 36 hours towards the Comoros Achipelago, and then southwestwards.

Heavy rains associated with gusty winds are expected today over the northern tip of Madagascar. Total rain amounts of 50 MM is possible with higher values over elevated areas (according to EUMETSAT and NOAA rain estimate products).

This is a weakening system that should therefore reach the Comoros Archipelago Thursday evening. A deterioration from east to west of the weather condition is possible tonight for this area.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #25
TYPHOON NIDA (T0922)
15:00 PM JST November 25 2009
===========================================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon Near Marianas Islands

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Nida (925 hPa) located at 11.6N 143.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knot with gusts of 140 knots. The typhoon is reported as moving west-northwest at 11 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T6.0

Storm Force Winds
===================
70 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
200 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 15.0N 140.5E - 105 kts (CAT 5/Very Intense Typhoon)
48 HRS: 17.2N 139.3E - 105 kts (CAT 5/Very Intense Typhoon)
72 HRS: 18.5N 138.9E - 100 kts (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)