TD Mahasen - Northeastern India // TC Alvin - Manzanillo, Mexico

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
DEEP DEPRESSION BOB04-2011
23:30 PM IST October 19 2011
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SUBJECT: Deep Depression Over Bangladesh

At 18:00 PM UTC, Deep Depression BOB04-2011 over Bangladesh remained practically stationary and lays centered over Bangladesh near 21.5N 92.5E.

The system is likely to move northeastwards and weaken gradually into a well marked low pressure area during next 24 hours.

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
DEPRESSION BOB04-2011
5:30 AM IST October 20 2011
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SUBJECT :Deep Depression Over Bangladesh Weakened Into A Depression..

At 0:00 AM UTC, The deep depression over Bangladesh moved eastwards and weakened into a depression. Depression BOB04-2011 lays centered over Myanmar near 21.5N 93.5E.

The system is likely to move eastwards and weaken gradually into a well marked low pressure area during next 12 hours.

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
LOW PRESSURE AREA, FORMER BOB04-2011
8:30 AM IST October 20 2011
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At 3:00 AM UTC, The depression over Myanmar weakened further and now lays as a low pressure area over Myanmar and adjoining Bangladesh and Mizoram and northeast Bay of Bengal

This is the last tropical cyclone advisory from India Meteorological Department.

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST October 26 2011
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The trough of low at mean sea level extending from Lakshadweep area to east central Arabian Sea persists.

Under its influence, a low pressure area may develop over southeast and adjoining east central Arabian sea during next 48 hours.

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
5:30 AM IST October 27 2011
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a low pressure area may develop over southeast and adjoining east central Arabian sea during next 24 hours.

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
5:30 AM IST October 29 2011
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The low pressure area over central parts of south Arabian sea and adjoining parts of central Arabian sea now lies over central parts of Arabian sea and adjoining central parts of south Arabian sea.

The system is likely to become more marked during next 24 hours

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST October 29 2011
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A Well Marked Low Pressure Area now lies over central parts of central Arabian Sea and adjoining south Arabian Sea. The system is likely to intensify into a depression during the next 24 hours

Vortex over central Arabian Sea adjoining south Arabian Sea center within half a degree of 13.0N 62.0E

Dvorak Intensity: T1.0

Associated broken low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection over Arabian Sea between 9.0N to 18.0N 56.0E to 72.0E. Minimum cloud top temperatures is -79C.

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
DEPRESSION ARB02-2011
11:30 AM IST October 29 2011
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At 6:00 AM UTC, Latest satellite imagery indicates that a depression has formed over west central and adjoining southwest Arabian Sea and lays centered near 13.0N 62.0E, or about 1400 km west of Mangalore, India, 850 km east of Socotra Island, Yeman, and 950 km southeast of Salalah, Oman. The system is likely to intensify further into a deep depression and move west northwestward towards the Gulf of Aden during the next 72 hours.

Satellite imagery indicates gradual increase in convection and organization of the system. The Dvorak intensity of the system is T1.5. Associated broken to very intense convection is seen over Arabian Sea between 9.0N to 18.0N and 56.0E to 72.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature is -79C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with a central pressure of 1004 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the system center.


The relative vorticity at 850 HPA level and upper level divergence have increased during past 24 hours. Sea surface temperature (28-29C). However, ocean heat content is less (<40 kj/cm2) and not favorable for intensification over Gulf of Aden and adjoining Arabian Sea. However, vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is favorable as it is low to moderate (between 10-20 knots). There is negative (5-10 knot) 24 hour tendency of vertical wind shear around system center. The system lies to the south of upper tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 15.0N in association with an anticyclonic circulation to the northeast of the system center.

Considering all the above, the system would intensify further into a deep depression and move west northwestward towards the Gulf of Aden during the next 72 hours. Due to cooler sea, the system may weaken again over the Gulf of Aden and adjoining Arabian Sea.

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
DEPRESSION ARB02-2011
17:30 PM IST October 29 2011
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At 12:00 PM UTC, DEPRESSION ARB02-2011 over west central and adjoining southwest Arabian Sea moved westward and lays centered near 13.0N 61.0E, about 1500 km west of Mangalore (India),750 km east of Socotra Island (Yemen), and 850 km southeast of Salalah (Oman).

The system is likely to intensify further into a deep depression and move west-northwestwards towards Gulf of Aden during next 72 hrs.

As the depression is expected to move further west-northwestwards away from west coast of India, no adverse weather will occur along and off west of coast of India under the influence of this system. However, the system is under constant watch for its further development

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
DEPRESSION ARB02-2011
8:30 AM IST October 30 2011
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SUBJECT: Depression Over West Central And Adjoining Southwest Arabian Sea

At 3:00 AM UTC, DEPRESSION ARB02-2011 over west central and adjoining southwest Arabian Sea further moved westward and lays centered near 13.0N 60.0E, about 1600 km west of Mangalore (India), 650 km east of Socotra Island (Yemen) and 750 km southeast of Salalah (Oman). The system is likely to intensify further into a deep depression and move west-northwestwards towards Gulf of Aden during next 48 hrs.

As the depression is expected to move further west-northwestwards away from west coast of India, no adverse weather will occur along and off west of coast of India under the influence of this system. However, the system is under constant watch for its further development

Satellite imagery indicates gradual increase in convection and organization of the system. The Dvorak intensity is T1.5. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over area between 10.0N to 20.0N an 54.5E to 65.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is -81C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with a central pressure of 1004 hPa. State of the sea is rough to very rough around the system's center.

The relative vorticity at 850 HPA level and upper level divergence have increased during past 12 hours. Sea surface temperature is around 26C to the western side of the system center. The ocean heat content is less (<50 kj/cm2) over western side of system center and not favorable for intensification over the Gulf of Aden and adjoining Arabian Sea. Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is favorable as it is low to moderate (10-20 knots). There is negative (5-10 knots) 24 hours tendency vertical wind shear to the west of system center. THe system lies to the south of upper tropospheric ridge, which runs roughly along 18.0N in association with an anticyclonic circulation to the northeast of system. 24 hours pressure tendency is negative along Oman coast. 24 hours maximum pressure fall of 5.1 hPa has been reported at Thumrait (Oman) to north of Salalah (Oman) at 3:00 AM UTC.

Considering all the above, the system will intensify into a deep depression while moving west northwestward towards the Gulf of Aden. However, due to cooler sea surface temperatures, the system may weaken again over Gulf of Aden and adjoining Arabian Sea

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
DEPRESSION ARB02-2011
17:30 PM IST October 30 2011
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At 12:00 PM UTC, DEPRESSION ARB02-2011 over west central and adjoining southwest Arabian Sea moved northwestward and lays centered over west central Arabian Sea near 13.5N 59.5E, about 1650 km west-northwest of Mangalore (India), 600 km east-northeast of Socotra Island (Yemen) and 700 km southeast of Salalah (Oman) The system is likely to intensify further into a deep depression and move northwestwards initially during next 24 hours and then west-northwestwards towards Gulf of Aden during subsequent 48 hrs.

As the depression is expected to move further west-northwestwards away from west coast of India, no adverse weather will occur along and off west of coast of India under the influence of this system. However, the system is under constant watch for its further development

Satellite imagery indicates out of two major convection clusters in southwest and northeast sector of the system, the depth of convection has decreased in former and increased in the later during past 12 hours. The Dvorak intensity is T1.5. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over area between 10.0N to 20.0N and 54.5E to 65.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -80C.

3 minute sustained wind near the center is 25 knots with a central pressure of 1000 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the system.

The relative vorticity and low level convergence at 850 hPA level and upper level divergence have increased during past 12 hours. Sea surface temperature is around 26-27C to the western side of system center. The ocean heat content is less (<50 kj/cm2) over the western side of the system and not favorable for intensification over Gulf of Aden and adjoining Arabian Sea. Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is favorable as it is low to moderate (between 10-20 knots) There is negative (5-10 knots) 24 hours tendency of vertical wind shear to the west of system center. The system lies to the south of upper tropospheric ridge, which runs along 18.0N in association with an anticyclonic circulation to the northeast of the system. 24 hours pressure tendency is negative along Oman coast. Salalah has reported mean sea level pressure of 1003.9 hPa, Pressure fall in last 24 hours is -2.8 hPa. Yaaloni reported surface low pressure of 1004.5 hPa, winds of 22 knots. Masirah reported surface low pressure of 1007.1 hPa, wind speed of 18 knots.

Though most of the models suggest movement towards the Gulf of Aden/Oman coast, there is large variation in track forecast. ECMWF model shows northeastward movement during the next 24 hours and then nearly westward movement. UKMO model suggest north northwestward movement during next 24 hours.

Due to colder sea, the system may weaken again over Gulf of Aden and adjoining Arabian Sea

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
DEPRESSION ARB02-2011
8:30 AM IST October 31 2011
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SUBJECT: Depression Over West Central Arabian Sea

At 3:00 AM UTC, DEPRESSION ARB02-2011 over west central Arabian Sea moved northwestward and lays centered over westcentral Arabian Sea near 15.0N 58.5E, about 1800 km west-northwest of Mangalore (Karnataka), 550 km northeast of Socotra Island (Yemen) and 500 km southeast of Salalah (Oman).

The system is likely to intensify further into a deep depression and move west-northwestwards towards south Oman and adjoining Yemen coast across Gulf of Aden during next 48 hrs. However, the probability of further intensification is low as the depression lies over the colder sea and there is cold dry air entrainment over the region.

The depth of convection has increased during past 12 hours. The Dvorak intensity of the system is T1.5. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over area between 12.5N to 20.0N and west of 63.0E and moderate to intense convection seen over rest Arabian Sea between 13.5N to 22.5N west of 66.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature is around -85C.

3 minute sustained wind near the center is 25 knots with a central pressure of 1000 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the center.

The relative vorticity and low level convergence at 850 HPA level shows slightly increase in past 12 hours and upper level divergence shows no change during past 12 hours. Sea surface temperature is around 26-27C to the western side of the system's center. The ocean heat content is less (<50 kj/cm2) around the center and not favorable for intensification over Gulf of Aden and adjoining Arabian Sea. Vertical win shear on horizontal wind over the region is favorable as it is low to moderate (between 10-20 knots) There is positive 24 hours tendency of vertical wind shear to the east of system and no significant change on western side of the system center. the system lies to the south of upper tropospheric ridge, which runs roughly along 17.0N in association with an anticyclonic circulation to the northeast of system. 24 hours pressure tendency is negative along Oman coast. The lowest mean sea level pressure has been reported by Al-Ghaidah of 1005 hPa. Pressure change in last 24 hours of -1.8 hPa. Silalah reported 1005 hPa.

As the depression is expected to move further west-northwestwards away from west coast of India, no adverse weather will occur along and off west of coast of India under the influence of this system. However, the system is under constant watch for its further development

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
DEPRESSION ARB02-2011
17:30 PM IST October 31 2011
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Depression Over West Central Arabian Sea

At 12:00 PM UTC, DEPRESSION ARB02-2011 over west central Arabian Sea moved northwestward and lay centered over west central Arabian Sea near 16.0N 57.5E, about 1900 km west-northwest of Mangalore (India), 550 km northeast of Socotra Island (Yemen) and 400 km east-southeast of Salalah (Oman).

The depth of convection has increased during past 12 hours. The Dvorak intensity is T1.5. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over area between 14.0N to 21.0N west of 65.0E and adjoining Saudi Arabia. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -79C.

3 minute sustained wind near the center is 25 knots with a central pressure of 1002 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the center.

The relative vorticity and low level convergence at 850 hPa level shows slight increase in past 12 hours and upper level divergence show no change during past 12 hours. Sea surface temperature is around 26-27C to the western side of system. The ocean heat content is less (<40 kj/cm2) around the system and not favorable for intensification over Gulf of Aden and adjoining Arabian Sea. Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is favorable as it is low to moderate. There is positive 24 hours tendency of vertical wind shear to the east of system and no significant change on western side of system. The system lies to the south of upper tropospheric ridge, which runs roughly along 17.0N in association with an anticyclonic circulation to the northeast of system. 24 hours pressure tendency is negative along Oman coast. The lowest mean sea level pressure has been reported by Salalah of 1003.0 hPa.

The system is likely to intensify further into a deep depression and move west-northwestwards cross south Oman and adjoining Yemen coast close to south of Salalah around Wednesday morning.

The depression is not expected to cause adverse weather along and off west of coast of India. However, the system is under constant watch for its further development