The 2008 Flying Reindeer Forecast
Santa's reindeer will be hitting the skies tomorrow, and the official Weather Underground Flying Reindeer Forecast (FRF) calls for some tricky turbulence and tough sledding for Santa in some regions of the world. As Santa begins his adventure, temperatures will be a crisp -20 degrees at the North Pole Workshop. Foggy conditions will require Rudolph's red nose to light the way, since the light winds blowing simultaneously from the south and north at the Pole (think about that for a second, it's true!) will not be strong enough to disperse the fog. As Santa heads south through Siberia into China, he'll be riding a strong jet of polar air that could bring some tricky turbulence. Santa's sleigh will be heavily loaded at this point, and he'll have to negotiate the turbulent skies with great caution to avoid dumping any of his precious cargo. Fortunately, heavy snows cover much of China and eastern Asia, allowing smooth rooftop landings for the sleigh.
As Santa heads south to the Australian continent, the sledding gets much tougher. He'll have to dodge Tropical Cyclone Billy, along Australia's northwest coast. With hot summer temperatures prevailing across Australia, Santa's team will have to execute pinpoint rooftop landings to avoid showering sparks on the dry, fire-prone vegetation. As Santa heads west across Indonesia into southern Asia, he'll need to call upon the thunderstorm avoidance skills of his reindeer, Donner and Blitzen. These storm-savvy critters, named after the German words for thunder and lightning, are experts at sniffing out turbulence-free routes through seemingly impenetrable areas of thunderstorms.
Approaching Turkey, Santa will have to avoid the razor-sharp blue triangles of a cold front. Once through the front, though, he'll find ideal conditions over Turkey and Eastern Europe, where cold temperatures and snowy rooftops abound. However, the sledding quickly degrades over Western Europe, where only Scandinavia and the Alps can expect a white Christmas.
The Western Hemisphere portion of the Flying Reindeer Forecast calls for smooth flying over South America and the Caribbean. But the best conditions of Santa's entire journey await over the United States and Canada, where a series of major snow storms have left excellent rooftop snows. In the Northeast U.S., though, it'll be slow slogging for Santa, with heavy rains expected in an advance of a strong cold front expected to track through on Christmas Eve. The cold front will bring thunderstorms to the Southeast, and Donner and Blitzen will be called upon to safely guide Santa's sleigh through the front to the Southern U.S., where smooth sailing and clear skies will prevail. Excellent sledding awaits Santa in the Midwest and Northwest, where fresh snow from the latest in a series of significant winter storms will delight Santa's reindeer. However, significant rains over Southern California could make for some dangerous mudslide conditions. Santa may be forced to break into his stash to find boogie boards intended for California kids, to help him ride out the mudflows. Santa's final leg northwards across Alaska to the North Pole should be mostly uneventful, and we can expect that clear skies over the Pole upon Santa's return will make for a beautiful Christmas scene as Rudolph guides the sleigh to a perfect landing.
Merry Christmas, everyone!
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Merry Christmas everyone! (and Happy Hanukkah, Happy Kwaanza, Happy New Year,Happy EVERYTHING!!)
In fact it proves that Santa's base is at the south pole. That's why he starts off with New Zealand because it's so close. The north pole address is just a decoy to stop too many visitors from disturbing his work through the year making all those toys.
Merry Christmas everyone.
It is now. No ice at the North pole to put a base on. ;)
We won't have a white christmas, as all the snow disappeared (again). Only in the mountains, over 1200 mtrs have snow, but there really abundant.
Wish all WU bloggers a happy christmas, hope the weather will "behave".
greetings, Starwoman
lol?
Someone PLEASE put us on the prayer list to get us out of pergatory (Georgia) and back to San Diego! I think we must have done something terribly wrong and we're waiting to get prayed out!
Merry Christmas everyone...
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number FIFTY
TROPICAL CYCLONE BILLY
6:50 AM WDT December 24 2008
=====================================
At 6:00 am WDT, Tropical Cyclone Billy, Category Two [983 hPa] located at 17.8S 120.0E or 235 kms west of Broome and 315 kms north-northeast of Port Hedland has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 5 knots.
TC Billy is currently located west of Broome and is moving away from the Kimberley coast. In the next 24 hours the cyclone is expected to move in a generally westerly direction.
GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop between Wallal and Whim Creek during Wednesday if Billy takes a more southwest track.
Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal communities from Wallal to Whim Creek.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Whim Creek to Mardie.
The Cyclone WARNING from Bidyadanga to Wallal has been cancelled.
the eye is sloppy but there
Christmas is here (almost) Happy Holidays for those of you who don't celebrate it and those who celebrate it too I guess.
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number FIFTY-ONE
TROPICAL CYCLONE BILLY
9:50 AM WDT December 24 2008
=====================================
At 9:00 am WDT, Tropical Cyclone Billy, Category Two [975 hPa] located at 17.8S 119.9E or 310 kms north-northeast of Port Hedland and 250 kms west of Broome has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 4 knots.
TC Billy is currently located well west of Broome and is moving away from the Kimberley and Pilbara coasts. In the next 24 hours the cyclone is expected to move in a generally westerly direction.
GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop between Pardoo and Mardie during Wednesday night and early Thursday but only if Billy takes a more southwesterly track than expected.
Tropical Cyclone Warnings
===========================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal communities from Pardoo to Mardie.
The Cyclone WARNING from Wallal to Pardoo has been cancelled.
Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin
==============================
12 HRS: 17.8S 118.5E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 17.4S 117.0E - 80 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 16.2S 114.6E - 80 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 15.2S 112.0E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
Remarks:
Billy was located by radar west of Broome moving steadily west, although clearly undergoing trochoidal oscillation along the mean track. Recent imagery suggests continuing intensification with the apparent formation of an eye but contstrained by MET to a CI of 4.0.
Intensifaction is expected to continue over the next 24 hours as Billy moves west in a favourable environment.
Model guidance is consistent with a steady W'ly track then a W/NW track in the 24-72 hour timeframe, well off the Pilbara coast under the influence of a mid-level ridge to the south.
It appears less likely that Billy will take a track closer to the Pilbara coast, but a small risk of gales remains for coastal parts of the Pilbara.
Image credit : By hattiew on Flickr
Seven Mile Beach, Grand Cayman
Now, thats a Christmas scene I can relate to, man.
I guess I was too naughty
The Reason For The Season
...and my favorite rendition of Oh Holy Night
Have a VERY Merry Christmas!!!
Just wanted to say Merry Christmas to everyone....
Taco :0) :0) :0)
peace on earth
good will to all humankind
Go to my blog to check it out!!
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number FIFTY-TWO
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE BILLY
12:40 PM WDT December 24 2008
=====================================
At 12:00 pm WDT, Severe Tropical Cyclone Billy, Category Three [972 hPa] located at 17.8S 119.6E or 300 kilometres north northeast of Port Hedland and 280 kilometres west of Broome has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 85-90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 9 kilometres per hour.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Billy has intensified this morning well to the west of Broome and is moving away from the Kimberley and Pilbara coasts. Billy is expected to continue moving westwards today before taking a more northwesterly track in the coming days.
GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop between Pardoo and Mardie during Wednesday night and early Thursday but only if Billy takes a more southwesterly track than expected.
Tropical Cyclone Warnings
=========================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal communities from Pardoo to Mardie
I just want to thank you so much for heading up this wonderful community of so many friends and people who can help us with weather.
WU is the BEST and I have met so many great friends since Summer of 2005.
I want to wish you and your family and Loved ones a Very Merry Christmas and hope you are enjoying your HOliday Week!
Gams
and to all my friends who only post here , I wish you a Merry Christmas also!!!
must be AGW rearing its ugly head! LOL
Scientists warn Christmas lights harm the planet
Link
Feliz Navidad y Prospero Ano Nuevo!
Happy Holidays!
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number FIFTY-THREE
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE BILLY
3:50 PM WDT December 24 2008
=====================================
At 3:00 pm WDT, Severe Tropical Cyclone Billy [962 hPa] located at 17.9S 119.3E or 280 kms north-northeast of Port Hedland and 310 kms west of Broome has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 110 knots. The cyclone reported as moving west at 6 knots.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Billy has intensified to the north of Port Hedland and is moving steadily westwards. Billy is expected to continue to intensify over the next 24 hours and should begin to take a more northwesterly track on Christmas Day.
GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop between Pardoo and Mardie tonight and early Thursday but only if Billy takes a more southwesterly track than expected.
Tropical Cyclone Warning
========================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal communities from Pardoo to Mardie.
Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin
===================================
12 HRS: 17.7S 117.8E - 90 knots (CAT 4)
24 HRS: 17.4S 116.4E - 100 knots (CAT 4)
48 HRS: 16.2S 113.7E - 80 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 15.6S 110.9E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
Remarks:
Billy was located by radar north of Port Hedland moving steadily west, although still undergoing slight trochoidal oscillations along the mean track. Billy has intensified rapidly over the past 12 hours with the formation of a ragged eye with a DT of 5.0.
Intensifaction is expected to continue over the next 24 hours as Billy moves west in a favourable environment before weakening begins due to increased shear and slightly cooler waters.
Model guidance is consistent with a steady W/NW track over the next 72 hours under the influence of a mid-level ridge to the south, with the system remaining well off the Pilbara coast.
It appears less likely that Billy will take a track closer to the Pilbara coast, but a small risk of gales remains for coastal parts of the Pilbara.
In conjunction with the reindeer forecast, Santa's on his way in just under two hours...
Link
(A little fun :))
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