Gulf of Mexico storm not likely to become a depression; storm kills 11 in Haiti
The large extratropical storm that has been pounding Florida and the Bahamas this week with heavy rain and high surf extended its reach yesterday, killing at least 11 people in Haiti. According to Reuters, most of the victims were killed while crossing rivers or when their flimsy homes collapsed. Approximately six inches of rain fell on Haiti's southwest peninsula in the 24 hours ending at 8pm EDT. Hundreds of homes were flooded and dozens destroyed in the flooding, which left 40% of the southern city of Cayes underwater. The impoverished Caribbean country is still struggling to recover from the massive flooding that killed over 800 people during the hurricane season of 2008. In March, UN chief Ban Ki-moon and Bill Clinton--who was this week appointed UN special envoy to the island--toured Haiti together and urged the international community to continue to aid the country. Participants at a Washington international donors conference in April agreed to donate $324 million to help Haiti rebuild.
The worst of the rain and flooding is over for Florida, which has seen rainfall amounts this week as high as 23.75 inches at the Flagler County Fairgrounds. Another 1 - 2 inches are expected in Northeast Florida today from the storm, along with beach erosion, 6 - 8 foot waves, and tides 1 - 2 feet above normal. The bad weather in Northeast Florida should subside substantially on Saturday.
Figure 1. Long range radar out of New Orleans.
The storm responsible for the heavy rains is now headed north-northwest, and should make landfall Saturday near the Louisiana/Mississippi border. The storm has developed a warm core at low levels, and NHC designated it Invest 90L late this morning. Latest visible satellite loops show a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity on the east side of the storm's circulation, but development is being hindered by dry air, and wind shear of 20 knots. Long range radar out of New Orleans (Figure 1) shows little organization or banding of the radar echoes. With only 24 hours to go until the system moves inland, it does not have enough time to develop into a depression. Since there will be strong winds from the west creating wind shear over the storm, plus dry air to the storm's west, most of the heavy rain should be confined to the east of the storm's center, along a stretch of coast from New Orleans to Pensacola. Rainfall totals of 2 - 4 inches can be expected.
Figure 2. Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico storm.
I'll have an update Saturday.
Portlight.org/wunderground shirts are now available on Ebay.
Jeff Masters
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This will not be a wind event for you (unless you call 20mph strong winds), just heavy rain. You'll get stronger winds in a normal afternoon summer thunderstorm.
AOI #1
AOI #2
How many Budweisers have you had?
We thought it was a subtropical storm, as winds near the center reached gusts of storm, although phase diagrams showed a shallow warm core.
It was considered as a "cousin" of VINCE (lol).
This question is pointing to the system was never labeled as an INVEST.
2 days later, wind shear moved East the big burst of deep convection far away from the LLCC. Nevertheless, the whirl came into Mediterranean Sea by the Straits of Gibraltar, giving tropical rains along the mediterranean coasts of Andalusia (amounts near of 80 mm. of rain in 24 hours).
Good Grief! It's still raining...
"Wind Speed (WSPD): 21.4 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 25.3 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 9.2 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 6.0 sec
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.80 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.04 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 73.0 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 74.3 °F"
Surely, they didn't noticed it (lol).
(Sorry for my bad English)
Still considered a low pressure area from India Meteorological Department.
Monsoon Depression from Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Station 42007 - BILOXI 22 nm South-Southeast of Biloxi, MS Image indicating link to RSS feed of recent meteorological observations for station 42007
More Bama Webcams
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
230 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2009
...UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEEKEND...
Ya think?
And all of the beach goers heading south on HWY. 331. It's a washout folks. I wouldn't be shocked to see this designated a weak STS Ana before landfall.
That never had a chance to be designated and I bet it was asked about 100 times on here. Still...it caused death which is terrible.
USS Alabama, Battleship Park Live Camera
Besides if the NHC calls it shallow-warm core, then I think that settles it. It's not going to have any affect on what the impacts of this system will be, but it is always great to ponder on these hybrid systems.
MARK
27.8N/87.7W
TRACK MARK
27.9N/88.1W
28.1N/88.5W
28.8N/88.9W
29.1N/89.3W OVERLAND
Notice how as the ULL takes off to the NW the surface vortex tries to tighten up and get under the area of greatest upper divergence southeast of the upper low. It's trying to pull an Alberto and get under the convection northeast of it. The low is still elongated to the SW but you can see the main vortex tightening up.
That's a good satellite. Appears to be organizing slightly.
wow IKE .. that's close to me ... I live west of andalusia ... inlaws are from opp/Florala area ... I found a neighbor =P =D
Link
Condition's look favorable for development. Im sure someone else here knows what track the system will take.
It's developing into a monsoon depression and has a good shot at developing further. SSTs are very warm and wind shear is fairly weak. It's positioned under an upper-level high which is causing very weak steering currents. It will probably meander around in the Bay drifting generally towards the NW or NNW.
[edit]: Where exactly do you live ddb?
I live 15 miles south of Florala...off hwy. 331. Get ready, this band will get to you shortly.
Link
Bah.. was about to go swimming =/
90L Latest IR Loop
That's a lot of rain.
ABIO10 PGTW 221800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/221800Z-231800ZMAY2009//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 87.3E,
IS NOW NEAR 15.1N 86.5E, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPAT-
NAM, INDIA. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
VERY BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A CONSOLIDATING MONSOON
DEPRESSION THAT COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE BAY OF BENGAL. THE VAST AREA
OF CONVECTION IS SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
221245Z QUIKSCAT SCATTEROMETRY PASS OUTLINES THE WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH
WIND BARBS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE STRONGER UNFLAGGED WINDS OF UP TO 40
KNOTS ARE WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT
THE SYSTEM IS UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOP-
MENT OF THE CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
12 TO 17 KNOTS AND MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: ALPHA//
NNNN
Wow..
Yeah, hopefully it doesn't blow up too badly. It's really organizing nicely at the moment though. It's best to just be prepared for anything out there. These things in the Bay of Bengal can ramp up very fast once they get consolidated.
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