Gulf of Mexico storm not likely to become a depression; storm kills 11 in Haiti
The large extratropical storm that has been pounding Florida and the Bahamas this week with heavy rain and high surf extended its reach yesterday, killing at least 11 people in Haiti. According to Reuters, most of the victims were killed while crossing rivers or when their flimsy homes collapsed. Approximately six inches of rain fell on Haiti's southwest peninsula in the 24 hours ending at 8pm EDT. Hundreds of homes were flooded and dozens destroyed in the flooding, which left 40% of the southern city of Cayes underwater. The impoverished Caribbean country is still struggling to recover from the massive flooding that killed over 800 people during the hurricane season of 2008. In March, UN chief Ban Ki-moon and Bill Clinton--who was this week appointed UN special envoy to the island--toured Haiti together and urged the international community to continue to aid the country. Participants at a Washington international donors conference in April agreed to donate $324 million to help Haiti rebuild.
The worst of the rain and flooding is over for Florida, which has seen rainfall amounts this week as high as 23.75 inches at the Flagler County Fairgrounds. Another 1 - 2 inches are expected in Northeast Florida today from the storm, along with beach erosion, 6 - 8 foot waves, and tides 1 - 2 feet above normal. The bad weather in Northeast Florida should subside substantially on Saturday.
Figure 1. Long range radar out of New Orleans.
The storm responsible for the heavy rains is now headed north-northwest, and should make landfall Saturday near the Louisiana/Mississippi border. The storm has developed a warm core at low levels, and NHC designated it Invest 90L late this morning. Latest visible satellite loops show a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity on the east side of the storm's circulation, but development is being hindered by dry air, and wind shear of 20 knots. Long range radar out of New Orleans (Figure 1) shows little organization or banding of the radar echoes. With only 24 hours to go until the system moves inland, it does not have enough time to develop into a depression. Since there will be strong winds from the west creating wind shear over the storm, plus dry air to the storm's west, most of the heavy rain should be confined to the east of the storm's center, along a stretch of coast from New Orleans to Pensacola. Rainfall totals of 2 - 4 inches can be expected.
Figure 2. Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico storm.
I'll have an update Saturday.
Portlight.org/wunderground shirts are now available on Ebay.
Jeff Masters
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I said it didn't have a much of a chance. Oh well. If i'm wrong, i'm wrong.
Yup.
I gotta get some sleep though.
We are, phases indicate this is warm core. If Vince could do it, 90L could. NHC indicates its fully tropical too.
I tell you Ike, after 4 years of watching this on this blog, I've learned never to say never.
Bouys are showing and have been showing 35 kt winds.
Tropical Cyclone Outlook (0600z 23MAY)
===========================================
Yesterday's Low Pressure Area over southeast and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal now lies over east central and adjoining west central Bay of Bengal. Current Dvorak Intensity is T1.0 RPT T1.0.
This system is likely to intensity into a depression.
Satellite imagery shows convective clouds over Andaman Sea, south and adjoining central Bay of Bengal, and parts of Arabian Sea.
I hope you are wrong! Don't need another Dennis early season.
Though those factors aren't ideal, they aren't exactly detrimental, either. I don't think any of us expect anything more than a 40 mph tropical storm, but 25.5C SSTs aren't that cold, and 20 knots of shear certainly isn't enough to inhibit gradual intensification.
Those are not sustained winds....come on now....those are wind gust....heck i got those today in a thunderstorm...which is also happening........sustained winds are at 25mph
scary how strong this cyclone could get..
I can't click that image. :/
25.5 isn't cold.....HUMMMMM......NO WAY a storm will intensify to a Tropical Storm in those TEMPS.......NOw if a storm was already formed and entered those temps.....would would gradually decrease...but, no way a storm will intensify in those Temps....Now im talking about a Tropical Storm.....Not Sub-Tropical.....but, this does not have the appearance of Sub-Tropical to me now.
No, a system intensifying into a tropical storm in 25.5C SSTs is certainly possible. Consider Vince in 2005, which not only intensified to a tropical storm over 23 to 22C SSTs, but also to a hurricane.
CMC has the maximum winds near 80 knots
Excuse me? Who's uptight or upset? You?
I do believe that was already a storm that was already cranked up and getting stronger before entering those colder SST's......NO WAY a storm will form in those cold temperatures when trying to form......
I'm also not saying that 90L is going to do what Vince did, because for one thing, Vince was an anomaly. But that storm alone proves that it can happen.
And though the general rule of thumb is that it takes SSTs of at least 26C or warmer in order for a tropical storm to intensify, there are exceptions. Also, you yourself said that the sustaining of a minimal tropical storm is certainly within the realm of possibility if it moves into 25.5C SSTs, provided that the system in question has already reached tropical storm status prior to entering into those 25.5C SSTs.
If 90L has indeed reached tropical storm status (unlikely, but possible), then it can be sustained by those SSTs.
Well my views on how storms are formed have been drastically warped since 2005. We're not arguing Tampa, anything but. We're cooled, but it appears atm that it really is a Tropical Cyclone. 456 posted earlier a warm/cold phase chart and it showed it was a warm cored system. The SST's are lower, but they still do support minimal tropical cyclone development.
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0643 UTC SAT MAY 23 2009
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902009) 20090523 0600 UTC
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 28.6N LONCUR = 88.4W DIRCUR = 340DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 27.0N LONM12 = 87.6W DIRM12 = 346DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 26.2N LONM24 = 87.4W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
I'm not upset......I'm just stating the facts of what it takes to have a storm FORM that is not already...
Seems some are not looking at the facts of current conditions....
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0643 UTC SAT MAY 23 2009
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902009) 20090523 0600 UTC
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 28.6N LONCUR = 88.4W DIRCUR = 340DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 27.0N LONM12 = 87.6W DIRM12 = 346DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 26.2N LONM24 = 87.4W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
35 mph!
EDIT: Dang it, hades beat me to it!
With SSTs as high as 31C, I'm inclined to think that 80 knots is being entirely too conservative.
LOL...Thanks!.....Hey i may be the first to eat the black bird this year.....I'm sure it will be served many times to me.....
Explain to me, apparently the NHC thinks it is.
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