Gulf of Mexico storm not likely to become a depression; storm kills 11 in Haiti
The large extratropical storm that has been pounding Florida and the Bahamas this week with heavy rain and high surf extended its reach yesterday, killing at least 11 people in Haiti. According to Reuters, most of the victims were killed while crossing rivers or when their flimsy homes collapsed. Approximately six inches of rain fell on Haiti's southwest peninsula in the 24 hours ending at 8pm EDT. Hundreds of homes were flooded and dozens destroyed in the flooding, which left 40% of the southern city of Cayes underwater. The impoverished Caribbean country is still struggling to recover from the massive flooding that killed over 800 people during the hurricane season of 2008. In March, UN chief Ban Ki-moon and Bill Clinton--who was this week appointed UN special envoy to the island--toured Haiti together and urged the international community to continue to aid the country. Participants at a Washington international donors conference in April agreed to donate $324 million to help Haiti rebuild.
The worst of the rain and flooding is over for Florida, which has seen rainfall amounts this week as high as 23.75 inches at the Flagler County Fairgrounds. Another 1 - 2 inches are expected in Northeast Florida today from the storm, along with beach erosion, 6 - 8 foot waves, and tides 1 - 2 feet above normal. The bad weather in Northeast Florida should subside substantially on Saturday.
Figure 1. Long range radar out of New Orleans.
The storm responsible for the heavy rains is now headed north-northwest, and should make landfall Saturday near the Louisiana/Mississippi border. The storm has developed a warm core at low levels, and NHC designated it Invest 90L late this morning. Latest visible satellite loops show a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity on the east side of the storm's circulation, but development is being hindered by dry air, and wind shear of 20 knots. Long range radar out of New Orleans (Figure 1) shows little organization or banding of the radar echoes. With only 24 hours to go until the system moves inland, it does not have enough time to develop into a depression. Since there will be strong winds from the west creating wind shear over the storm, plus dry air to the storm's west, most of the heavy rain should be confined to the east of the storm's center, along a stretch of coast from New Orleans to Pensacola. Rainfall totals of 2 - 4 inches can be expected.
Figure 2. Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico storm.
I'll have an update Saturday.
Portlight.org/wunderground shirts are now available on Ebay.
Jeff Masters
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Exactly. I once talked to Steve Lyons, and he said that he thinks SSTs are overrated. Important, to be sure, but not the sole factor in determining whether or not tropical cyclogenesis and subsequent intensification can occur.
Also, bear in mind that Felix in 2007 attained Category 5 status prior to its Nicaraguan landfall, in an area where Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) was negligible at best.
In the East Pacific, Norbert (2008) also rapidly intensified in an area of low TCHP, as did Bertha last year.
SST's don't have a strong effect on a developing tropical cyclone, if the upper-level conditions are optimal. Now obviously, 20 knots of shear, what our invest is battling, isn't optimal, but nonetheless, trying to prove a point here...
The radar presentation is starting to look pretty sloppy now. That wedge of dry air has really hurt it.
One thing I have learned in my years and that I will continue to learn in my tropical forecasting career.
The necessary but not sufficient conditions for tropical cyclone development:
It means that even if all the conditions appear favorable a storm may not form, or
even if the conditions are not present, a storm may form and we have seen this many many many times in the past 10 years.
Within 100 miles? I'm not sure.
However, in both 2000 and 2004, two tropical cyclones made landfall in the same state within a 24 hour period (Gordon and Helene during the former, and Bonnie and Charley during the latter).
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
000
AXNT20 KNHC 230601 CCA
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2009
A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 28N87W...OR ABOUT 150 NM SOUTH OF MOBILE ALABAMA.
THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE N-NW DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS AND LOCATE INLAND OVER SRN MISSISSIPPI. HOWEVER...
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THE LOW MOVES INLAND OVER
THE NRN GULF COAST ON SATURDAY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
HEAVY RAINS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE NRN GULF COAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. INTERESTS
IN THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM.
Good night.
Hi everyone. Interesting reading in here tonight. Just had to chime in on this one. Last year we had Edouard and Ike come through probably not 20 miles apart.And I think Gustav was closer to us than 100 miles. But we didn't see any effects of that one.
Hurricanes Frances and Jeanne of 2004 both made landfall in Florida at Hutchinson Island less than a month apart from each another.
Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (0530z 23MAY)
=========================================
An area of convection (98B) located at 16.5N 88.2E or 365 NM south of Kolkata, India. Animated multispectral satellite imagery and a 2349z SSMIS 37ghz image indicates a consolidating system with deep convective banding over the southern semi-circle and a partially exposed low level circulation center. A 2349z Quikscat image (as well as an earlier ASCAT image) supports a 25-30 knot low level circulation center with stronger winds associated with the intense convection. This low level circulation center has become stronger and more defined over the past 12 hours. The system is located within a favorable environment with good equatorward outflow and developing poleward outflow, enhanced by an upper level shortwave trough over northern India. The low level circulation cneter is also located over very warm sea surface temperatures and high ocean heat content with very high total precipitable water values (Greater than 62 NM).
Maximum sustained winds near the center is 25-30 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1000 MB. Although deep convection is currently lacking over the low level circulation center, the system is expected to organize quickly in the next 12-18 hours during the early morning hours. Additionally, poleward outflow is forecast to improve as the midlatitude trough deepens over India. The potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is UPGRADED TO GOOD.
Nice words! We can think at VINCE... which develops over cool waters (around 22ºC).
THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
Tropical Disturbance Summaries (0600z 23MAY)
============================================
At 15:00 PM JST, Low Pressure Area (1004 hPa) located at 19.0N 112.0E is reported moving northwest slowly.
--
pressure fell again for the South China Sea invest
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number ONE
DEPRESSION BOB02-2009
11:30 AM IST May 23 2009
======================================
Subject: Depression over west central Bay of Bengal and pre-cyclone watch for West Bengal and north Orissa coasts
At 6:00 AM UTC, The low pressure area over east central and adjoining west central Bay of Bengal has concentrated into a depression and lay over west central Bay of Bengal near 16.5ºN 88.0ºE, or about 470 kms south-southeast of Paradip and 600 kms south of Sagar Island.
The system is likely to intensify further into a cyclonic storm and move in a nearly northerly direction towards West Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh coasts during next 72 hours.
---
WOW!! the IMD beat the JTWC in identifying a cyclone.
Maximum 3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with a central pressure of 998 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rought around the system's center.
Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is around 10-20 knots. The system which roughly runs along 17.0N in association with the anticyclonic circulation located to the east-northeast of the system center. Sea surface temperature are also favorable for intensification as it is 0.50 to 1.00C above normal.
I am still here, i am not interested in the wind since i am not near the coast, do you know if this is a big rain producer or more of wind.
mostly covers the northwestern side of the Bay of Bengal right now
ABNT20 KNHC 230555
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
155 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR DATA...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH OF MOBILE ALABAMA CONTINUES TO SHOW
SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE...AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME
BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE LOW LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
THROUGH THE DAY...AND INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM.
ANOTHER SPECIAL OUTLOOK ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS
MORNING...IF NECESSARY.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
Is this a Tropical Deperesion Yet then?
The last few models has been making landfall near West Bengal and Bangladesh.
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
255 am EDT Sat may 23 2009
Short term (today through Monday night) weather across our region
for the short term period will continue to be unsettled due to
middle/upper level troffing and very moist deep southerly flow. At the
surface...the low center has been slowly lifting to the north
northwest toward the central Gulf Coast and as of 06z it was about
150 miles south of Mobile Alabama. It is forecast to move steadily
to the north northwest with the center crossing the coastline
between Mobile and New Orleans later today. The NHC is still
monitoring this system and it could become a tropical depression
before moving inland. After it moves inland...it will lift into
Arkansas Sunday and become nearly stationary through Monday. The
pressure gradient will relax and conditions across the marine area
will significantly improve after today. However...deep layer
southerly flow will continue to bring abundant moisture into the
forecast area. This combined with daytime heating and the upper
level instability will keep rain chances well above normal at least
into early next week. Time height cross sections do show some middle
level dry air entraining into the region but forecast sounding
indicate precipitable waters staying at of above 1.60". Will keep area probability of precipitation in the
likely range through Sunday and then trim back into the chance
category for Memorial Day. Maximum temperatures will stay just under seasonal
levels with min temperatures a few degrees above climatology.
can't remember the name.. I think it was Arthur?
but the thing is they will not name it till HH get inside it and they will not fly today as it is too close to land
also land interaction is already decreasing convection then what it was at midnight last night.
Never huh?
Buoy 64 NM south of Mobile,AL....
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.66 in
the center is going to make landfall within 2 hours
I agree....... ANA has been very close to be born !!!
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