Western Caribbean disturbance unlikely to develop this week
An area of disturbed weather is bringing some heavy rains to Nicaragua and Honduras and the adjacent waters of the Western Caribbean. This disturbance has generated 2 - 3 inches of rain over these countries over the past two days, and is likely to bring an additional 2 - 3 inches of rain to northeastern Honduras and Nicaragua over the next two days. The disturbance is expected to gradually drift northwards, bringing heavy rain to the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and Cuba by Monday or Tuesday. The disturbance is under prohibitively high wind shear of 30 - 40 knots, and is not a threat to develop today or Monday. Some of the computer models are predicting wind shear may fall low enough to allow development of this system 4 - 7 days from now, but the models have been rather inconsistent in the location and timing of any such development. For now, the chances of a tropical depression forming from this disturbance within the next week appear low, less than 30%.
Figure 1. Visible satellite image of the Western Caribbean disturbance.
I'll have an update Monday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 — Blog Index
The Great POOF of 09' continues.
and did i say bust too 91E??? ooops
shortwave sat image
When I look at surface observations, I use the NowCOAST Web-Mapping and Satellite Server since they have accurate and constantly updated data and imagery. Thats where I got the observations that indicated an east wind on the north and a west wind on the south which would be indicative of some surface reflection occuring. Not only that, but when you look very closely at daytime visible/nighttime IR satellite loops (I use Tropical RAMSDIS for this), you can see the low-level clouds starting to get drawn northward into the disturbance. All this indicates to me at least that we're starting to see something happening at the surface.
Now, even with this happening, I do agree that it will still take sometime before we get anything substantial, but this all does indicate that this disturbance may be trying to get organized.
Reflector site for those at work, which now also includes Weather456, daily updates
AOI #1
AOI #2
Nothing to see here. There is no truth to the wishcasting propaganda that the BLOB has been upgraded to POOF status.
lol, so far the 00Z GFS shows the system just sitting in place for 4 days.
scott
tropical developement is a science that warrants further and ongoing observation as it is not an exact science and requirers further study to predict accurate developement of these systems
so you know not all not even the experts
Don't want to get into any confrontation or standing people up here. Just pointing out my observations and the evidence I used to make them. We're all here to give our opinions and to learn from each other. So please don't try and use my opinion to incite a possible confrontation since, as you probably know well from experience, it doesn't lead to good things here and can be more detrimental than beneficial.
Who said I know all? I didnt.
00Z GFS @ 102 hrs. System is just parked in the Carribean.
and what site would that be???
link????????
Viewing: 801 - 851
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 — Blog Index