Western Caribbean disturbance unlikely to develop this week
An area of disturbed weather is bringing some heavy rains to Nicaragua and Honduras and the adjacent waters of the Western Caribbean. This disturbance has generated 2 - 3 inches of rain over these countries over the past two days, and is likely to bring an additional 2 - 3 inches of rain to northeastern Honduras and Nicaragua over the next two days. The disturbance is expected to gradually drift northwards, bringing heavy rain to the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and Cuba by Monday or Tuesday. The disturbance is under prohibitively high wind shear of 30 - 40 knots, and is not a threat to develop today or Monday. Some of the computer models are predicting wind shear may fall low enough to allow development of this system 4 - 7 days from now, but the models have been rather inconsistent in the location and timing of any such development. For now, the chances of a tropical depression forming from this disturbance within the next week appear low, less than 30%.
Figure 1. Visible satellite image of the Western Caribbean disturbance.
I'll have an update Monday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Here they just moved to Storm Stories I think...
shear decreasing 5 to 10 over area with further slow decreasing over time
They'll go back to live as soon as they get a good angle ahead of that cell
Funny...
Some real strong T-storms earlier, huh? Had hail and a lot of gusty winds.
Ah, thanks. I left the room for two minutes and missed that part.
I still think we're a few days at the very least from good enough conditions for any real development but watch me be wrong, lol
You live by Publix? I was just there earlier today.
Who knows. I'm really interested to see if some of this strong convection that has recently fired up, will persist overnight.
Good grief. Lots of West Palm/Palm Springers on tonight.
Yeah seems that way.
No Problem I work in television.
looks like 30-40 kts to me
A hurricane's "hot towers" can increase its intensity by adding power to boost the storm's heat engine. For the first time, research meteorologists have run complex simulations of these phenomena using a very fine temporal resolution. They have combined this new simulation data with satellite observations to study the innerworking of the "hot towers" in never-before-seen detail.
Have you been to the Sailfish marina lately? I havent been there in ages.
NDBC
Location: 16.834N 81.501W
Conditions as of:
Sun, 07 Jun 2009 23:50:00 UTC
Winds: E (90°) at 15.5 kt gusting to 17.5 kt
Significant Wave Height: 4.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 6 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.89 in and steady
Air Temperature: 79.9 F
Dew Point: 71.8 F
Water Temperature: 82.0 F
Closest Buoy
putting you on the spot keeper...when????
if it persists till afer midnight then maybe shortly after that
GOM and Below WV Loop
Note the Yucatan T-storms blow off to the South
Maybe? LOL sorry I just had to :3
it will be what ever it will be
wait watch see
thanks vort i take no offense to your commets
coming soon, people complaining that the NHC hasnt made this a Tropical Storm yet...
I stand neutral and watch and say Maybe =D
LOL....C storm?
LMAO!!
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