Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog |
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| Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:56 PM GMT on June 08, 2009 | +5 |


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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
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Maximum Temperature
+40.2 °C at 16:31 on 03 June
It wasn't an error.. it was frikken hot.
For almost a week, thats straight from my weather station.
Link to the weekly graph
Lol, I'm usually the only one awake still since I live in Alaska.
Nah its 12:52 AM EDT
956 in gods country
its only 856 in your neck of the woods isn't in Levi?
Correcto....but it might as well be midnight things are so boring right now.
more coming once it passes iam of to bed
Hmm maybe Redoubt will burp for you?
Its only across the sound..
I am off.. I will leave you to look after the Blog for the night.
Ah I hope not we've still got too much ash around from the last time.
Alrighty goodnight.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/winter123/show.html
Wow Keeper.
Sorry I probably missed it earlier but where do you live?
right over me now it will be done soon
dorset park scarbrough,ont
Tropical Disturbance Summary (0600z 09JUN)
=============================================
An area of convection (96W) located at 8.3N 134,1E or 70 NM north-northwest of Palau. Animated multispectral satellite imagery depicts poorly organized convection embedded within an easterly wave. A 0418z AMSU-B image supports the easterly wave near the surface, however the multispectral imagery shows an upper level circulation with weakening convection. Upper level analysis reveals the feature is encountering 20-30 knots of northeasterly vertical wind shear and is located under a region of weak convergence aloft.
Maximum sustained winds near the center is 10-15 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1011 mb. The potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains POOR.
System #2
=========
An area of convection (97W) located at 11.8N 113.7E or 390 NM south-southwest of Manila, Philippines. Animated multispectral satellite imagery depicts deep convection developing over a region of mid to upper level turning with tight surface troughing. A 0221z TRMM image indicates that the convection has started to wrap towards the center of the mid-level turning. Upper level analysis indicates a point source providing good outflow with moderate to high vertical wind shear hampering development.
Maximum sustained winds near the center is 10-15 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1010 mb. The potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is POOR
I wonder if it's the one the ECMWF, GFS and NAM are all picking up on?
Perhaps, but the models are initializing this further east.
Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 70 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 13.6 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 17.5 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 3.9 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 4.5 sec
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.84 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.05 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.5 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 81.9 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 76.1 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 88.5 °F
I'll be back this afternoon...see ya.
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT TUE JUN 09 2009
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND
SRN PLAINS...OZARKS AND MID-MS VALLEY...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NEW YORK...ERN
PA...MD AND NJ...
...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS TODAY AS A
60 TO 70 KT MID-LEVEL JET MAX APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...AN MCS WITH ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING IN WRN KS WITH THIS CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM MOVING EWD ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN KS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. IN THE
WAKE OF THE MCS...STRONG DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR ALONG A MOIST
AXIS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F EXTENDING NNWWD FROM
CNTRL OK INTO WCNTRL KS. NAMKF FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THIS
CORRIDOR BY 00Z SHOW EXTREME INSTABILITY IN CNTRL OK WITH MLCAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 5000 J/KG. FURTHER NORTHWEST...MLCAPE VALUES DROP
INTO THE 3000 TO 4000 J/KG RANGE INTO NW KS. IN ADDITION...THE
MID-LEVEL JET MAX SHOULD MOVE OVER THE INSTABILITY AXIS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CREATING STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 50 TO 60 KT RANGE. THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE A VERY FAVORABLE RAPID SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
ONCE SFC-BASED STORMS INITIATE JUST WEST OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN
AGREEMENT ORGANIZING A CLUSTER OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS IN NRN KS
AND DRIVING A WELL-DEVELOPED MCS EWD ACROSS NERN KS INTO NRN MO
OVERNIGHT.
CONCERNING THE SEVERE THREATS...A 30 TO 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
INCREASE FROM NRN OK INTO CNTRL KS DURING THE EARLY EVENING FEEDING
INTO SUPERCELLS ONGOING IN THE NRN PART OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AROUND HUTCHINSON KS AT 00Z SHOW IMPRESSIVE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW 800 MB AND
0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 25 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH LCL HEIGHTS AROUND
500 METERS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES WITH SUPERCELLS THAT
TRACK EWD ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. WITH THIS VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW LONG TRACK
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES. THE
CORRIDOR WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES SHOULD EXIST
FROM HAYS KS EWD ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO MANHATTAN KS AND SWD
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED SWD INTO
FAR SRN KS AND NRN OK WHERE A CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE INCREASINGLY
INFLUENTIAL. SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS STRONG INSTABILITY
SHOULD ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL. THE WIND DAMAGE
THREAT SHOULD BE FOCUSED FURTHER EAST ACROSS ERN KS INTO NW MO AS
THE MCS BECOMES WELL-DEVELOPED.
...NRN OZARKS/MID-MS VALLEY/SRN OH VALLEY...
AN AXIS OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS MO
EXTENDING EWD INTO THE SRN OH VALLEY. MODEL FORECASTS AGREE WITH
DEVELOPING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE STRONGLY TIED TO SFC HEATING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z ACROSS SRN MO INTO WRN KY SHOW MODERATE
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUGGESTING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND/OR
ORGANIZED BOWING LINE-SEGMENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE STRONG
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE MORE INTENSE
STORMS. IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP
SUGGESTING A THREAT FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO EXIST.
...NY/ERN PA/MD...
A WELL-DEFINED MOIST AXIS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC NEWD ACROSS ERN PA INTO CNTRL NY. THE MODELS DEVELOP
MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THE CORRIDOR WITH STORMS INITIATING IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ECNTRL PA AND SRN NY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THIS CORRIDOR SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE
35 TO 40 KT RANGE SUGGESTING SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS. THE LATEST NAM AT 18Z SHOWS 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES OF 8.5
TO 9.5 C/KM SUGGESTING DOWNDRAFT MOMENTUM WILL BE QUITE EFFICIENT
AND FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE. HAIL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH THE
MORE INTENSE CELLS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY FORECAST.
..BROYLES.. 06/09/2009
"""Today: Sunny and hot, with a high near 95. Calm wind becoming west northwest around 5 mph.
Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 68. West southwest wind between 5 and 10 mph becoming calm.
Wednesday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 96. Calm wind becoming west northwest between 5 and 10 mph.
Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 71. Southwest wind between 5 and 10 mph becoming calm.
Thursday: Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 95. Calm wind becoming west between 5 and 10 mph."""...........
Beach weather.
Tropical Wave to bring additional rains to the Western Caribbean
Here's my WU forecast for tomorrow....
Wednesday
Mostly sunny. West winds around 10 mph. Highs 94 to 99.
the winds are picking up
uesday
Thunderstorm. High: 29 °C . Wind ESE 61 km/h . Chance of precipitation 100% (water equivalent of 44.73 mm).
Tuesday Night
Thunderstorm. Low: 25 °C . Wind East 25 km/h . Chance of precipitation 100% (water equivalent of 40.89 mm). Heat Index: 31 °C .
Wednesday
Thunderstorm. High: 30 °C . Wind SE 57 km/h . Chance of precipitation 100% (water equivalent of 93.69 mm). Heat Index: 34 °C .
Wednesday Night
Thunderstorm. Low: 26 °C . Wind SSE 25 km/h . Chance of precipitation 100% (water equivalent of 95.10 mm). Heat Index: 31 °C .
Thursday
Thunderstorm. High: 30 °C . Wind SE 61 km/h . Chance of precipitation 100% (water equivalent of 173.53 mm). Heat Index: 33 °C .
Thursday Night
Thunderstorm. Low: 26 °C . Wind SE 25 km/h . Chance of precipitation 100% (water equivalent of 32.00 mm). Heat Index: 32 °C .
Friday
Thunderstorm. High: 30 °C . Wind SE 90 km/h . Chance of precipitation 80% (water equivalent of 24.73 mm). Heat Index: 36 °C .
Kingston,JA. for Friday....who writes their forecasts....what R they smokin?
"Friday
Thunderstorm. High: 86 °F . Wind SE 55 mph . Chance of precipitation 80% (water equivalent of 0.97 in). Heat Index: 96 °F ."
According to the GFS and NAM, moisture should be increasing between Cuba, Jamaica and maybe the Caymans within 48 hours....then a low forms and tries to maybe move west or get sheared to death or both.
30 hrs - Surface and upper
Maybe it's moving in tandem. I read where a cut-off low was suppose to form with that trough to the west.
well it is getting windy here
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE JUN 9 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAVE BECOME LESS ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA
They must be up on a mountain.
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