Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting stormpetrol:

Even in the mid levels, this rotation is more impressive and better defined than the previous "blob". I doubt it will amount to anymore but one never really knows for sure.

that is true, I'm giving it a 50% of having a 30% chance of developing.

Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
SEVERE BICKERING WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WB 349 CALAMITY PREDICTION CENTER JUPITER, FL
1:03 PM EST TUE JUN 9 2009

SEVERE BICKERING WATCH 349 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1:03 PM EST WED JUN 10 2009 FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS - DR. MASTERS WUNDERBLOG.

AT 1:03 PM EST CAREFUL ANALYSIS INDICATED THE POSSIBILITY OF A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HRS. FOLLOWED BY INTENSE BICKERING, BRIEF BUT HEAVY WISHCASTING AND FREQUENT DOWNCASTING. SHOULD THIS LOW DEVELOP A WARNING MAY BE ISSUED AND POSSIBLY 24HR BANS FOR THE EFFECTED PARTIES. SHOULD YOUR NERVES BE ADVERSELY AFFECTED BY THE BICKERING, PLEASE GO OUTSIDE AND ENJOY YOURSELF AND REMAIN THERE UNTIL THE BICKERING PASSES.

I want to complain about this office, a watch should've been issued a long time ago!

Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
A little laughter is good for the soul.

Thanks :-)

Sad thing is, a decent chance of that warning being legit.

Quoting Vortex95:
unfriendly you got mail.

haha wheres it from?

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE JUN 9 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA REMAIN POORLY-ORGANIZED. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN
30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA

Quoting IKE:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA

Hey Ike; regardless of this Outlook, Blob watching during this part of the season is always fun (particularly when a cluster of normal summer t-storms just "looks" ominous stting right off the coast)...Lol

SPECIAL CALAMITY UPDATE
1:38 PM EST TUE JUN 9 2009

SEVERE BICKERING WATCH WILL BE MADE PERMANENT AND MAY BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING AT ANY TIME.

**PLAN AHEAD KEEP YOUR EYES TO THE BLOG FOR EARLY WARNING SIGNS**

I think everyone should keep a closer on the cluster right off the coast of ga and sc. Shear is very low here and sst's are marginally warm. Development here would be much more likely than in the sw carib.

Latest ASCAT pass

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Latest ASCAT pass

I'm not the pro on these charts yet....Does it show a little bit of cyclonic rotation if I read the arrow thingies correctly?

Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
SPECIAL CALAMITY UPDATE
1:38 PM EST TUE JUN 9 2009

SEVERE BICKERING WATCH WILL BE MADE PERMANENT AND MAY BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING AT ANY TIME.

**PLAN AHEAD KEEP YOUR EYES TO THE BLOG FOR EARLY WARNING SIGNS**

lol I get on the blog today and the first thing I see is this.

Oh, we had a severe thunderstorm warning really early this morning, starting around 4AM, and it kept getting renewed until about 6:15 when it finally moved south of the area. It was quite crazy.

although surface pressures aren't falling (at all) their was a definite wind shift from late last night into this afternoon at buoy SKMG1, link

Quoting GatorWX:
I think everyone should keep a closer on the cluster right off the coast of ga and sc. Shear is very low here and sst's are marginally warm. Development here would be much more likely than in the sw carib.

See my comment 1078 below....

Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
SEVERE BICKERING WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WB 349 CALAMITY PREDICTION CENTER JUPITER, FL
1:03 PM EST TUE JUN 9 2009

SEVERE BICKERING WATCH 349 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1:03 PM EST WED JUN 10 2009 FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS - DR. MASTERS WUNDERBLOG.

AT 1:03 PM EST CAREFUL ANALYSIS INDICATED THE POSSIBILITY OF A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HRS. FOLLOWED BY INTENSE BICKERING, BRIEF BUT HEAVY WISHCASTING AND FREQUENT DOWNCASTING. SHOULD THIS LOW DEVELOP A WARNING MAY BE ISSUED AND POSSIBLY 24HR BANS FOR THE EFFECTED PARTIES. SHOULD YOUR NERVES BE ADVERSELY AFFECTED BY THE BICKERING, PLEASE GO OUTSIDE AND ENJOY YOURSELF AND REMAIN THERE UNTIL THE BICKERING PASSES.

The best post that I've seen on these boards in a long time. Finally, someone who doesn't take themselves too seriously and has a sense of humor... :->

Quoting GatorWX:
although surface pressures aren't falling (at all) their was a definite wind shift from late last night into this afternoon at buoy SKMG1, link

And windspeeds are at an impressive 0 knots...

Drilling for oil off the Florida coast has been approved by committee... Yuck.

Link

Quoting weathermanwannabe:


I'm not the pro on these charts yet....Does it show a little bit of cyclonic rotation if I read the arrow thingies correctly?

Yes there is rotation, but it isn't a well-defined low anymore.

If you look at the Caribbean closely you can see the very broad surface low taking shape now. Centered near 13.5N 77W

Quoting weathermanwannabe:


I'm not the pro on these charts yet....Does it show a little bit of cyclonic rotation if I read the arrow thingies correctly?

Yes, weak turning. Full barb ~10 knots, half barb ~5 knots.

Quoting SavannahStorm:


And windspeeds are at an impressive 0 knots...

It looks like the pressure fell a bit during the wind shift.

Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
A little laughter is good for the soul.

Thanks :-)

Yes it is - thanks for the giggles

Quoting Vortex95:
1118? lol im shocked

I hope it gets vetoed.

Quoting gator23:


I hope it gets vetoed.

I do too.

Quoting SavannahStorm:


And windspeeds are at an impressive 0 knots...

lol, yeah!

they were gusting to near 20 this morning around 8am though, have since died down considerably obviously to a mediocre 4kts.

Quoting SavannahStorm:


And windspeeds are at an impressive 0 knots...

lol It's only 34 knots short of a tropical storm, the world might end! /sarcasm

Quoting GatorWX:


lol, yeah!

There actually has been quite a shift. It's back up to 4 knots now from the NE. It was from the SSW early this morning.

Upon close inspection of high-resolution visible loops, you can see the the circulation in the Caribbean is purely at the mid-levels.

It takes some staring at the screen for a while but if you work at this long enough you'll be able to pick out the low-level clouds and see where they are going. Here they are predominately moving towards the WNW and there is no evidence of a surface feature.

We need a new fresh blog to liven things up a bit.

what a change here in swfl, you can really feel (finally) the passage of that front. Very springlike feel today. Last few days have been miserably hot and muggy! although almost 90 now, only 50% humidity and what a difference!

"2009- THE YEAR OF THE FISH STORM
COUNT ON IT. IT IS SET IN STONE.

-STORMTOP WEATHER OFFICE"

Quoting Levi32:
Upon close inspection of high-resolution visible loops, you can see the the circulation in the Caribbean is purely at the mid-levels.

It takes some staring at the screen for a while but if you work at this long enough you'll be able to pick out the low-level clouds and see where they are going. Here they are predominately moving towards the WNW and there is no evidence of a surface feature.

Zoom out and put the Caribbean in perspective, focus around 13N directly south of Jamacia. Very broad cyclonic flow which I believe is the surface low taking shape.

Quoting SavannahStorm:
"2009- THE YEAR OF THE FISH STORM
COUNT ON IT. IT IS SET IN STONE.

-STORMTOP WEATHER OFFICE"

Gasp.. I see a weather phenomena coming on... yup.. there it is... poof.

Quoting GatorWX:
what a change here in swfl, you can really feel (finally) the passage of that front. Very springlike feel today. Last few days have been miserably hot and muggy! although almost 90 now, only 50% humidity and what a difference!

Been like that up here in NWFL for a couple days now, simply beautiful weather for this time of year! It won't last long but it sure has been nice!

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUN 09 2009


BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC S OF 10N ALONG 34W
MOVING W 10-15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD CURVATURE OR CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
CONTINUITY.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 20N ALONG 74W
MOVING W 10-15 KT. SIMILAR TO THE CENTRAL ATLC WAVE...THERE IS
NO DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON CONTINUITY AND A WEAK SURFACE WIND SHIFT FROM AVAILABLE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 6N21W 6N32W 4N43W AND INTO
THE NE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 11W-16W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM S OF 7N BETWEEN 37W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL NW-N FLOW AND STRONG RIDGING OVER MEXICO IS
PRODUCING SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO BRINGING
FAIR WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE BASIN. CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE GULF WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS PUSHING INTO
THE NW PORTION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CRESTING THE
RIDGE OVER MEXICO. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING SE
WINDS OF AROUND 10 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF...THOUGH SURFACE
TROUGHING OVER THE SRN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES AND MEXICO IS
SUPPORTING SE TO S 15-20 KT WINDS ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE
GULF. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE W CARIBBEAN AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IN THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ESPECIALLY OFF THE
COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND BROAD LOW
PRESSURE OVER NRN S AMERICA IS SUPPORTING E TO SE WINDS OF 20-25
KT ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE FAR W ATLC EXTENDS NE FROM SE FLORIDA
NEAR 26N80W TO 32N79W TO A SURFACE LOW OUTSIDE THE DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR 33N78W. THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE AND MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 28N W OF 76W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS.
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE IS
RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ANCHORED ON A 1020 MB
SURFACE HIGH NEAR 29N65W AND A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 28N27W. ACROSS
THE TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NEAR 23N48W AND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS S OF 20N E OF 46W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
NEAR 10N23W. THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF
20N ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC.

$$
WALTON/SANDOVAL

Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


Zoom out and put the Caribbean in perspective, focus around 13N directly south of Jamacia. Very broad cyclonic flow which I believe is the surface low taking shape.

thats down near the columbia coastal low..its usually like that.

Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


Zoom out and put the Caribbean in perspective, focus around 13N directly south of Jamacia. Very broad cyclonic flow which I believe is the surface low taking shape.

Yeah there's a small area of 850mb vorticity there but that's usually there all the time anyway. I don't really sense the beginnings of a surface low yet. We'll see how it evolves. The low will likely form when the wave axis moves through tomorrow.

Quoting Vortex95:
1139. just to make sure Orca I believe savanna was joking.

Oh oh... ok
Reverse weather.... un poof


See just like the models... change the inputs.. and the output goes wonky

Quoting 69Viking:


Been like that up here in NWFL for a couple days now, simply beautiful weather for this time of year! It won't last long but it sure has been nice!

for sure, I saw it was only 59 a day or two ago in crestview. Perfect!

Hm just got a good shake here in Homer, Alaska. I hope that's not the volcano lol.

Quoting Orcasystems:
<

Quoting Levi32:
Hm just got a good shake here in Homer, Alaska. I hope that's not the volcano lol.

can't be.. we asked for that at 830 last night when you said you were bored.

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