Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Fourth warmest May on record
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 10:01 PM GMT on June 16, 2009 +6
The globe recorded its fourth warmest May on record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The period January - May tied with 2003 as the sixth warmest such period on record. Global temperature records go back to 1880.

A warm and wet May for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., May temperatures were the 24th warmest in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The Southeast region experienced its second wettest May in 115-years of record-keeping. In contrast, the West North Central region had their sixth driest May. Both Florida (9.86 inches) and Arkansas (10.91 inches) experienced their all-time wettest May. The last time Florida saw a record wet May was in 1976 when 9.15 inches of precipitation fell. Arkansas experienced its last record wet May in 1930 when 10.07 inches of precipitation fell. U.S. tornado activity was below average in May, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

On June 9, 2009, 14% of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought. This is a drop from the 19% figure observed at the beginning of the year. The amount of the U.S. in the highest levels of drought, extreme to exceptional, decreased from 2.6% on May 12 to 1.5% on June 9. These extreme drought regions were in South Texas.

El Niño watch issued
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Watch last week, saying "that conditions are favorable for a transition from neutral to El Niño conditions during June - August 2009". The pattern of changes in surface winds, upper-level winds, sea surface temperatures, and deeper water heat content are all consistent with what has been observed during previous developing El Niños. We are currently experiencing neutral conditions, with ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific just 0.2°C below the threshold for El Niño. In the week since the El Niño watch was issued, ocean temperatures have remained nearly steady in the Eastern Pacific, so we are not rushing into an El Niño just yet. As discussed in detail in an earlier blog post, most of our more advanced El Niño computer models are predicting a weak El Niño event for the coming Atlantic hurricane season. If this indeed occurs, it is likely that Atlantic hurricane activity will be suppressed due to the strong upper-level winds an El Niño usually brings to the tropical Atlantic, creating high wind shear that tears hurricanes apart.

Sea ice extent in the Arctic near average during May
May 2009 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was near average in May, coming in at 15th lowest (16th highest) since 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. The record May low was set in 2004. The rate of ice decline in May accelerated, and by the end of the month the decline rate was equal to last year's rate. Warmer than usual temperatures over the Arctic during May contributed to this acceleration. The Arctic remains vulnerable to near-record melting this summer if much warmer than average temperatures occur over the region, since the ice is at record thinness this summer. Thin ice requires less energy to melt, and it also tends to be more fractured, with increased open water amid the ice. Since water absorbs more sunlight than ice, heat from the sun can more rapidly melt this fractured ice.

Jeff Masters
Categories: Climate Summaries
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851. WxLogic 1:51 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
Hi Sport... hehe. That weak frontal boundary is what will provide the focus for cyclogenesis late next week if things do pan out.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4667
852. Ossqss 1:51 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
Quoting Skyepony:
Wonder what the 1/2 circle feature thing around the North side of Linfa on this pass..



Just another botched N. Korean missle test or something else :)
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154
853. stillwaiting 1:55 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
sounds like this "back-door" cold front w/come accross FL stall and a couple disturbances along it may retro-grade from the atlantic accross the state into the GOM where in time something could form if the shear is low and the UL aren't to dry/cold
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854. NEwxguy 1:56 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
Quoting futuremet:


A one day record does not necessarily negate global warming. You are probably along a frontal zone or the east side of an anticyclonic flow.Albeit anthropogenic global warming is a fallacious theory, one must look like the earth's geological thermal record to efficaciously debunk it.


He sucked you in,he was looking to stir the pot with that comment.
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855. futuremet 1:58 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
Quoting NEwxguy:


He sucked you in,he was looking to stir the pot with that comment.


LoL I am surprised Skyepony did not reply.
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856. WPBHurricane05 1:59 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
Finally have our first TD in the EPAC!

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857. hurricane23 1:59 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
UK Met office just put out there seasonal forcast for the ATL. 6 named storms.

Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13277
858. melwerle 1:59 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
Miserable storm here early this morning...LOTS of thunder - scared the dogs big time.

Guess we're in the time of year where you get the boomers in the late afternoon and throughout the evening.
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859. fwbflbarry 2:04 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
we need the rain here in nw florida
860. CybrTeddy 2:04 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
Quoting hurricane23:
UK Met office just put out there seasonal forcast for the ATL. 6 named storms.



That seems way to little. I think they are overplaying the El Nino.
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861. stillwaiting 2:05 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
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862. Skyepony (Mod) 2:07 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
Ossqss~ way to entertain the kids:) Perhaps Disney is pulling through these rough times by selling their 'cane shield technoligy... After seeing it on both I have no idea.

Futurement~ No need, you said it best with A one day record does not necessarily negate global warming
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863. Orcasystems 2:10 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which now also includes Weather456, daily updates


AOI #1

AOI #2

Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077
864. Ossqss 2:11 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
Quoting futuremet:


LoL I am surprised Skyepony did not reply.


AGW cannot be confirmed or denied with any level of confidence. We have a hard time predicting the weather 3 days out let alone the complex interaction of the many items from the Solar impacts, through geological impacts and everything in the middle. No computer or model exists that can crunch all of the numbers required to successfully interpret the forces at play. I think a better term for it would be Anthropopulative Global Warming. We treat symptoms and not the illness. Just my take on the way out :)
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154
866. DaytonaBeachWatcher 2:13 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
Count me wayyyy out there because i cant believe that people constantly argue about a phenomenon that IF it is true or IF it isnt, wont be known to humans until wayyyyy after all of us are gone from this earth.
Member Since: June 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
867. Drakoen 2:27 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
LOL Adrian 6 named storms!
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868. futuremet 2:28 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
What happened to Shaqcane?
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869. Skyepony (Mod) 2:31 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
Not meaning to lick on that stir stick, just slumming the weather news.. NOAA just released news about a large & updated report on climate change & the US. Suprised to see them also reporting we are beyond the worst case senerios of a few years ago. There is a link in there to the report as well. Here's a taste.

The study finds that Americans are already being affected by climate change through extreme weather, drought and wildfire trends and details how the nation’s transportation, agriculture, health, water and energy sectors will be affected in the future. The study also finds that the current trend in the emission of greenhouse gas pollution is significantly above the worst-case scenario that this and other reports have considered.

Among the main findings are:

Heat waves will become more frequent and intense, increasing threats to human health and quality of life. Extreme heat will also affect transportation and energy systems, and crop and livestock production.
Increased heavy downpours will lead to more flooding, waterborne diseases, negative effects on agriculture, and disruptions to energy, water, and transportation systems.
Reduced summer runoff and increasing water demands will create greater competition for water supplies in some regions, especially in the West.
Rising water temperatures and ocean acidification threaten coral reefs and the rich ecosystems they support. These and other climate-related impacts on coastal and marine ecosystems will have major implications for tourism and fisheries.
Insect infestations and wildfires are already increasing and are projected to increase further in a warming climate.
Local sea-level rise of over three feet on top of storm surges will increasingly threaten homes and other coastal infrastructure. Coastal flooding will become more frequent and severe, and coastal land will increasingly be lost to the rising seas.
By breaking out results in terms of region and economic sector the report provides a valuable tool not just for policymakers but for all Americans who will be affected by these trends. Its information can help:

Farmers making crop and livestock decisions, as growing seasons lengthen, insect management becomes more difficult and droughts become more severe;
Local officials thinking about zoning decisions, especially along coastal areas;
Public health officials developing ways to lessen the impacts of heat waves throughout the country;
Water resource officials considering development plans; and,
Business owners as they consider business and investment decisions.
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870. palmbaywhoo 2:31 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:
Count me wayyyy out there because i cant believe that people constantly argue about a phenomenon that IF it is true or IF it isnt, wont be known to humans until wayyyyy after all of us are gone from this earth.


It is kind of like arguing if their is a God or not, some have faith in one belief others have faith in the other side, either way, your still responsible for yourself and what you contribute to this earth
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 331
871. pearlandaggie 2:31 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
NOAA: FUBAR high temp/climate records from faulty sensor to remain in place at Honolulu

of course, the 11 'record' high temperatures recorded during the past 16 or so days will STAY part of the temperature record, regardless of the faulty sensor.
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872. futuremet 2:33 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
Joe Bastardi has Bastardized their forecast
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874. hurricanemaniac123 2:34 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
I doubt there will be only 6 named storms.

My prediction:

Named storms: 10-14

Huricanes: 3-6

M. Hurricanes: 1-4
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875. stillwaiting 2:35 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
Quoting CycloneOz:
Remote Hurricane Weather Station (RHWS) Update:

XtremeHurricanes.com has purchased a 2nd ProWeatherStation from ProWeatherStation.com

It is a prelude to another off-season equipment upgrade that will feature two (2) RHWS systems for deployment in 2010.

The 2nd system will be maintained and deployed by other XtremeTeam hunters (stillwaiting...are you there, bro...cause I expect this next one will be yours.)

Very cool... :)



yea,I'm here how was your trip???,I actually have the same unit installed on a pole on my about 40ft high(total)on top of my 3rd story balcony right here on the beach,it works great,however I have to get a new usb hook up for my internet and then it'll be rapid firing to WU and I'll have it on my blog page as well,so you could say I'm familiar w/the units operation!!!,I'm still on stand-by and have been looking for TC gear at local yard sales;)
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876. IKE 2:35 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
Quoting Drakoen:
LOL Adrian 6 named storms!


Imagine the arguments in here if that verifies...."dead season"..."boring".... vs. "it only takes one".
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044
878. pearlandaggie 2:37 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
The Government’s New Climate Report: Shading Science for Alarmism

In the last year, this report went through three periods of public comment. In response to loads of comments (including the large detailed set that I contributed), tweaks were made and glaring errors corrected. But by and large, the same general sentiment remained in place throughout—that is, anthropogenic climate change has made, is making, and will continue to make, things worse for Americans. Evidently, all aspects of the CCSP report were forced to support that general concept—whether or not they do so in reality when all scientific evidence is fairly considered.
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879. jeffs713 2:39 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
Quoting hurricane2009:


Im on it, going to buy a gross of pacifiers

Forget that, I'm buying popcorn to watch the show with.
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880. JRRP 2:40 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
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882. pearlandaggie 2:42 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
anyone got the link to the navy website that shows the loops current velocity? i seem to have lost my shortcut...
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883. K8eCane 2:42 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
Quoting jeffs713:

Forget that, I'm buying popcorn to watch the show with.


ATTA BOY!!
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 2375
884. IKE 2:44 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
initial 18/1500z 18.2n 108.5w 25 kt
12hr VT 19/0000z 19.8n 108.5w 25 kt
24hr VT 19/1200z 21.5n 108.0w 30 kt
36hr VT 20/0000z 23.1n 107.5w 35 kt
48hr VT 20/1200z 24.9n 107.0w 25 kt...inland
72hr VT 21/1200z...dissipated
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044
885. Skyepony (Mod) 2:44 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
The Fay fix money seems to be coming up for vote & doesn't include money for my area. Drainage wise the county had to throw alotta money at the Lake Washington area. It actually saved me that so much water west of me was tied up as whole canals collapsed. It cleared up the main canal so my area could drain into it.

I have never seen so much preseason canal prep in this area. I had e-mailed the head of canals for the area with the gfs of 26 inch for the area a few days before Fay hit. He was in disbelief but deployed his people to prepare anyway. I think he's taken serious our discussion after about how much more moist the blobs has been the last few years.
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886. pearlandaggie 2:45 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
nevermind...i found it.
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887. pearlandaggie 2:46 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
well, the 'good' news is that it looks like the loop current will spin another warm eddy off into the central GoM just in time for the peak of the season :(

/sarc

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888. IKE 2:57 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
This blog is about dead today.
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889. pearlandaggie 2:58 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
888. boy, you're not lying. i thought my browser wasn't updating! LOL
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894. FatPenguin 3:08 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
Quoting palmbaywhoo:


It is kind of like arguing if their is a God or not, some have faith in one belief others have faith in the other side, either way, your still responsible for yourself and what you contribute to this earth

Do you have faith in gravity? It's a scientific theory.

The theory of AGW is based on data that is studied by scientists who do not put faith into their findings, just hard work. Faith does not get you published in peer reviewed scientific journals.

Calling AGW a religious belief is no different than labeling any other scientific theory as such: Gravity, Relativity, Evolution, etc.
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 307
895. NRAamy 3:08 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
My Local Weather:

John Wayne-Orange County, California
64 °F
Overcast


still not hot....
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896. pearlandaggie 3:10 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
LOL @ 895 :)
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897. CybrTeddy 3:14 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
LIVE: NASA set for return to the moon! LRO/LCROSS probe launched aboard an Atlas V today at 5:12 PM EDT!

Live Images.
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898. Cazatormentas 3:19 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
Just NW of Canary Islands.... Another interesting "blob"...

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899. NRAamy 3:22 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
Do you have faith in gravity? It's a scientific theory

yeah, Al Gore invented it, right after the internet...
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 315 Comments: 31937

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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