Fourth warmest May on record
The globe recorded its fourth warmest May on record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The period January - May tied with 2003 as the sixth warmest such period on record. Global temperature records go back to 1880.
A warm and wet May for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., May temperatures were the 24th warmest in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The Southeast region experienced its second wettest May in 115-years of record-keeping. In contrast, the West North Central region had their sixth driest May. Both Florida (9.86 inches) and Arkansas (10.91 inches) experienced their all-time wettest May. The last time Florida saw a record wet May was in 1976 when 9.15 inches of precipitation fell. Arkansas experienced its last record wet May in 1930 when 10.07 inches of precipitation fell. U.S. tornado activity was below average in May, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.
On June 9, 2009, 14% of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought. This is a drop from the 19% figure observed at the beginning of the year. The amount of the U.S. in the highest levels of drought, extreme to exceptional, decreased from 2.6% on May 12 to 1.5% on June 9. These extreme drought regions were in South Texas.
El Niño watch issued
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Watch last week, saying "that conditions are favorable for a transition from neutral to El Niño conditions during June - August 2009". The pattern of changes in surface winds, upper-level winds, sea surface temperatures, and deeper water heat content are all consistent with what has been observed during previous developing El Niños. We are currently experiencing neutral conditions, with ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific just 0.2°C below the threshold for El Niño. In the week since the El Niño watch was issued, ocean temperatures have remained nearly steady in the Eastern Pacific, so we are not rushing into an El Niño just yet. As discussed in detail in an earlier blog post, most of our more advanced El Niño computer models are predicting a weak El Niño event for the coming Atlantic hurricane season. If this indeed occurs, it is likely that Atlantic hurricane activity will be suppressed due to the strong upper-level winds an El Niño usually brings to the tropical Atlantic, creating high wind shear that tears hurricanes apart.
Sea ice extent in the Arctic near average during May
May 2009 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was near average in May, coming in at 15th lowest (16th highest) since 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. The record May low was set in 2004. The rate of ice decline in May accelerated, and by the end of the month the decline rate was equal to last year's rate. Warmer than usual temperatures over the Arctic during May contributed to this acceleration. The Arctic remains vulnerable to near-record melting this summer if much warmer than average temperatures occur over the region, since the ice is at record thinness this summer. Thin ice requires less energy to melt, and it also tends to be more fractured, with increased open water amid the ice. Since water absorbs more sunlight than ice, heat from the sun can more rapidly melt this fractured ice.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Launching the UK Climate Projections 2009 report (UKCP09), Mr Benn told MPs that the UK climate will change even with a global deal on emissions.
By 2080, London will be between 2C and 6C hotter than it is now, he said.
Every part of the UK is likely to be wetter in winter and drier in summer, according to the projections.
Summer rainfall could decrease by about 20% in the south of England and in Yorkshire and Humberside by the middle of the century.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8107014.stm
Less rain and more warmth in Britain? I fail to see the problem in that...
This may help. I would always obtain legal assistance as appropriate also.
Link
do you think the current heat and weather in the south east is a set up for late july and august storms? i know no one can predict these things straight up but the last time in my area we had this type heat the storm season was not good for us.
Have a Hurricane Plan,review it..and be ready to act upon it if a Threat arrives.
Hurricane Preparation
They're not exactly hot on predicting normal thunderstorms (and they rarely point out specifically whether to expect tornadoes; one of my main gripes with them), let alone a seasonal prediction on hurricanes.
Nothing specific that far out on the model. The thing to watch is the overall pattern. The pattern is fair game for anywhere in the Gulf of Mexico and the western Caribbean. Moisture will be creeping northward across that entire region and it will all depend on where it decides to bundle and try to create low pressure. It might not bundle at all but the GFS has been consistently hinting at it so I think there's a decent chance that we see something attempt to spin up between June 25th and July 5th.
June 18, 10:10 AM
Tense, tragic moments aboard a Continental Airlines Boeing 777 this morning - this when the pilot died during a transatlantic crossing. Federal Aviation Administration spokeswoman Arlene Salac says, The captain passed away en route.
For the 2010 season, the CFS predicts 479 storms.
Hi there! I self-published my first book about 6 months ago. Its called NOTES FOR THE AURORA SOCIETY and chronicles my 1500 mile, 5-month walk across Finland. I published through Infinitypublishing.com for $600. I was/am VERY pleased.
My book can be found here: http://www.amazon.com/Notes-Aurora-Society-Jim-ODonnell/dp/0741451026
/snark :)
We are already, but here's to hoping they all don't get washed away again...
really ????
and may be 2 hurricanes
Hmm.
What alphabets do we use after Greek?
Maybe we can go to hieroglyphics.
Try the Writers' Market - you can borrow it at the library - they have every publisher and what they accept and how to submit it. If you need more info, let me know.
LinkLink
Oh yeah I forgot that you pointed that out yesterday lol. Well the GFS keeps it cold-core, and that seems likely because SSTs are only around 20C up there, but you never know remember the system we had in May. It should be sitting there for 3-4 days so things could happen but I'd say unlikely with the cold waters. It's always interesting to watch those cut-offs though.
Like Having a NOAA weather Alert Radio.
A must for Storm Season.
Wunderground National Watches and Warnings Map
We can use the chinese alphabet, god knows how many characters are in that.
Anyway- to TD 1E-- It looks like it has gotten a bit weaker since this morning, and yet they still upgraded it. Hmmm. I think I'll give it a 50-60% chance of becoming Andres. Which is relatively low. What do you all think about it?
I had another point/question to make, but I completely forgot it.
MsBlanch: There's this thing, ya know. It's called a joke. ;D
gator23: what'd he do this time?
also, I remembered my point; at the top bar (^^) there is a typo on the scrolling thing it says "Tornados" when it should be "Tornadoes". Thank you !
Thought about that, but might be cramping the West Pacific typhoon season's style.
My MidLand Handheld is ready to go and portable too!
I know! Cyrillic! We can do that...
479? I have to wonder where their info to make this statement comes from.
Quoting jeffs713:
For the 2010 season, the CFS predicts 479 storms.
too many doobies and late nite munchies...
Excuse my pedantry.
Yeah it's problem might be the dry/stable air mass to its west. You can see it represented by the yellow mass of stratocumulus on this loop. The subtropical jet is also just to the north which could start inflicting shear on TD 1 soon.
Bah it's supposed to be on my blog not on my avatar. And yes I'm 2 years older than the other pic you guys saw.
Figured it was something like that- just wanted someone else's opinion.
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012009
1100 AM PDT THU JUN 18 2009
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO SOUTHWARD TO EL ROBLITO AND FOR
LAS ISLAS MARIAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THAT
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WAS LOCATED FARTHER
SOUTHEAST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...NEAR LATITUDE 17.7
NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.4 WEST OR ABOUT 400 MILES...645 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO AND ABOUT 265 MILES...430
KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...14 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST LATE
FRIDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE PACIFIC
COAST OF MEXICO BY FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE
REACHING THE COAST.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.7N 108.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BERG
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