Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Fourth warmest May on record
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 10:01 PM GMT on June 16, 2009 +6
The globe recorded its fourth warmest May on record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The period January - May tied with 2003 as the sixth warmest such period on record. Global temperature records go back to 1880.

A warm and wet May for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., May temperatures were the 24th warmest in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The Southeast region experienced its second wettest May in 115-years of record-keeping. In contrast, the West North Central region had their sixth driest May. Both Florida (9.86 inches) and Arkansas (10.91 inches) experienced their all-time wettest May. The last time Florida saw a record wet May was in 1976 when 9.15 inches of precipitation fell. Arkansas experienced its last record wet May in 1930 when 10.07 inches of precipitation fell. U.S. tornado activity was below average in May, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

On June 9, 2009, 14% of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought. This is a drop from the 19% figure observed at the beginning of the year. The amount of the U.S. in the highest levels of drought, extreme to exceptional, decreased from 2.6% on May 12 to 1.5% on June 9. These extreme drought regions were in South Texas.

El Niño watch issued
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Watch last week, saying "that conditions are favorable for a transition from neutral to El Niño conditions during June - August 2009". The pattern of changes in surface winds, upper-level winds, sea surface temperatures, and deeper water heat content are all consistent with what has been observed during previous developing El Niños. We are currently experiencing neutral conditions, with ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific just 0.2°C below the threshold for El Niño. In the week since the El Niño watch was issued, ocean temperatures have remained nearly steady in the Eastern Pacific, so we are not rushing into an El Niño just yet. As discussed in detail in an earlier blog post, most of our more advanced El Niño computer models are predicting a weak El Niño event for the coming Atlantic hurricane season. If this indeed occurs, it is likely that Atlantic hurricane activity will be suppressed due to the strong upper-level winds an El Niño usually brings to the tropical Atlantic, creating high wind shear that tears hurricanes apart.

Sea ice extent in the Arctic near average during May
May 2009 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was near average in May, coming in at 15th lowest (16th highest) since 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. The record May low was set in 2004. The rate of ice decline in May accelerated, and by the end of the month the decline rate was equal to last year's rate. Warmer than usual temperatures over the Arctic during May contributed to this acceleration. The Arctic remains vulnerable to near-record melting this summer if much warmer than average temperatures occur over the region, since the ice is at record thinness this summer. Thin ice requires less energy to melt, and it also tends to be more fractured, with increased open water amid the ice. Since water absorbs more sunlight than ice, heat from the sun can more rapidly melt this fractured ice.

Jeff Masters
Categories: Climate Summaries
  Permalink | A A A
Reader Comments
Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted
Viewing: 951 - 1001

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40Blog Index

952. Cotillion 4:52 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
The UK needs to plan now for a future that will be hotter and bring greater extremes of flood and drought, says Environment Secretary Hilary Benn.

Launching the UK Climate Projections 2009 report (UKCP09), Mr Benn told MPs that the UK climate will change even with a global deal on emissions.

By 2080, London will be between 2C and 6C hotter than it is now, he said.
Every part of the UK is likely to be wetter in winter and drier in summer, according to the projections.

Summer rainfall could decrease by about 20% in the south of England and in Yorkshire and Humberside by the middle of the century.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8107014.stm

Less rain and more warmth in Britain? I fail to see the problem in that...
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
955. Ossqss 4:56 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
Quoting hurricane2009:
Thanks, self-publishing was something I thought of but I am barely making the bills I have to pay now, including a $2,000 hospital bill from early April, so I am looking for another option


This may help. I would always obtain legal assistance as appropriate also.

Link
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154
956. Levi32 4:56 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
12z GFS switches moisture advection back to the west in the Bay of Campeche after trending east for several runs.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25443
959. claimsadjuster 5:08 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
storm
do you think the current heat and weather in the south east is a set up for late july and august storms? i know no one can predict these things straight up but the last time in my area we had this type heat the storm season was not good for us.
962. Patrap 5:13 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
No one can foretell the future as to Landfalls or number of Storms.

Have a Hurricane Plan,review it..and be ready to act upon it if a Threat arrives.


Hurricane Preparation



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111297
963. Drakoen 5:13 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
The UKMET's problem is that they rely too much on the Glosea long-range prediction. All they do is run the model based on the initial conditions and then count the average number of storms in the ensembles. I wonder why no one does that with the CFS...
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010
964. Cotillion 5:15 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
To be honest, I'm not sure why the UKMet prediction has got so much interest.

They're not exactly hot on predicting normal thunderstorms (and they rarely point out specifically whether to expect tornadoes; one of my main gripes with them), let alone a seasonal prediction on hurricanes.

Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
965. Levi32 5:16 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
Quoting WeatherStudent:


So, what to believe then, Levi?


Nothing specific that far out on the model. The thing to watch is the overall pattern. The pattern is fair game for anywhere in the Gulf of Mexico and the western Caribbean. Moisture will be creeping northward across that entire region and it will all depend on where it decides to bundle and try to create low pressure. It might not bundle at all but the GFS has been consistently hinting at it so I think there's a decent chance that we see something attempt to spin up between June 25th and July 5th.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25443
966. Patrap 5:17 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
Continental jumbo jet pilot dies en route from Brussels to Newark, Boeing 777 lands safely
June 18, 10:10 AM


Tense, tragic moments aboard a Continental Airlines Boeing 777 this morning - this when the pilot died during a transatlantic crossing. Federal Aviation Administration spokeswoman Arlene Salac says, The captain passed away en route.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111297
968. jeffs713 5:21 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
Quoting Drakoen:
The UKMET's problem is that they rely too much on the Glosea long-range prediction. All they do is run the model based on the initial conditions and then count the average number of storms in the ensembles. I wonder why no one does that with the CFS...


For the 2010 season, the CFS predicts 479 storms.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 15 Comments: 5722
969. msphar 5:23 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
Perhaps the Brits could try their hand at grape vines (again).
Member Since: August 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 258
970. largeeyes 5:23 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
I'm moving here in Eastern NC this weekend. There's enough rain already, gez!
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1380
971. lickitysplit 5:24 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
Quoting hurricane2009:
Thanks, self-publishing was something I thought of but I am barely making the bills I have to pay now, including a $2,000 hospital bill from early April, so I am looking for another option


Hi there! I self-published my first book about 6 months ago. Its called NOTES FOR THE AURORA SOCIETY and chronicles my 1500 mile, 5-month walk across Finland. I published through Infinitypublishing.com for $600. I was/am VERY pleased.

My book can be found here: http://www.amazon.com/Notes-Aurora-Society-Jim-ODonnell/dp/0741451026
Member Since: May 17, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 621
972. pearlandaggie 5:26 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
LOL @ 968! is that a joke?

/snark :)
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
973. Cotillion 5:28 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
Quoting msphar:
Perhaps the Brits could try their hand at grape vines (again).


We are already, but here's to hoping they all don't get washed away again...
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
976. palmbaywhoo 5:31 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
looks like they are taking a proactive step today by issuing the almost state-wide tstorm watch, you very rarely get these during the summer unless it is a system moving through
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 331
977. JRRP 5:32 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
Quoting jeffs713:


For the 2010 season, the CFS predicts 479 storms.

really ????
and may be 2 hurricanes
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4305
978. Cotillion 5:33 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
Quoting jeffs713:


For the 2010 season, the CFS predicts 479 storms.


Hmm.

What alphabets do we use after Greek?

Maybe we can go to hieroglyphics.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
980. melwerle 5:37 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
Quoting hurricane2009:
Thanks, self-publishing was something I thought of but I am barely making the bills I have to pay now, including a $2,000 hospital bill from early April, so I am looking for another option


Try the Writers' Market - you can borrow it at the library - they have every publisher and what they accept and how to submit it. If you need more info, let me know.

LinkLink
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 1837
981. Levi32 5:37 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
Quoting hurricane2009:
hey levi what do you think about the low by the Canary Islands?


Oh yeah I forgot that you pointed that out yesterday lol. Well the GFS keeps it cold-core, and that seems likely because SSTs are only around 20C up there, but you never know remember the system we had in May. It should be sitting there for 3-4 days so things could happen but I'd say unlikely with the cold waters. It's always interesting to watch those cut-offs though.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25443
982. Patrap 5:38 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
Having aSevere T-Storm Watch,and being pro-active about it go hand in Hand.
Like Having a NOAA weather Alert Radio.

A must for Storm Season.

Wunderground National Watches and Warnings Map
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111297
983. MsBlanch 5:40 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
479? I have to wonder where their info to make this statement comes from.

Quoting jeffs713:


For the 2010 season, the CFS predicts 479 storms.
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 103
984. hurristat 5:41 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
Quoting Cotillion:


Hmm.

What alphabets do we use after Greek?

Maybe we can go to hieroglyphics.


We can use the chinese alphabet, god knows how many characters are in that.

Anyway- to TD 1E-- It looks like it has gotten a bit weaker since this morning, and yet they still upgraded it. Hmmm. I think I'll give it a 50-60% chance of becoming Andres. Which is relatively low. What do you all think about it?

I had another point/question to make, but I completely forgot it.
Member Since: October 15, 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 2302
986. gator23 5:42 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
Tampa Spin has one more day before Crow Eating Time!
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1994
987. hurristat 5:42 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
Quoting MsBlanch:
479? I have to wonder where their info to make this statement comes from.



MsBlanch: There's this thing, ya know. It's called a joke. ;D
Member Since: October 15, 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 2302
989. hurristat 5:43 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
Quoting gator23:
Tampa Spin has one more day before Crow Eating Time!


gator23: what'd he do this time?

also, I remembered my point; at the top bar (^^) there is a typo on the scrolling thing it says "Tornados" when it should be "Tornadoes". Thank you !
Member Since: October 15, 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 2302
990. Cotillion 5:46 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
Quoting hurristat:


We can use the chinese alphabet, god knows how many characters are in that.

Anyway- to TD 1E-- It looks like it has gotten a bit weaker since this morning, and yet they still upgraded it. Hmmm. I think I'll give it a 50-60% chance of becoming Andres. Which is relatively low. What do you all think about it?

I had another point/question to make, but I completely forgot it.


Thought about that, but might be cramping the West Pacific typhoon season's style.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
991. sporteguy03 5:47 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
Quoting Patrap:
Having aSevere T-Storm Watch,and being pro-active about it go hand in Hand.
Like Having a NOAA weather Alert Radio.

A must for Storm Season.

Wunderground National Watches and Warnings Map


My MidLand Handheld is ready to go and portable too!
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 4824
993. hurristat 5:48 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
Quoting Cotillion:


Thought about that, but might be cramping the West Pacific typhoon season's style.


I know! Cyrillic! We can do that...
Member Since: October 15, 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 2302
994. NRAamy 5:49 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
983. MsBlanch 10:40 AM PDT on June 18, 2009
479? I have to wonder where their info to make this statement comes from.


Quoting jeffs713:


For the 2010 season, the CFS predicts 479 storms.


too many doobies and late nite munchies...
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 315 Comments: 31937
995. hurristat 5:50 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
Quoting hurricane2009:
I find it funny when people are so eager to point out when others are wrong lol


Excuse my pedantry.
Member Since: October 15, 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 2302
997. Levi32 5:51 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
Quoting hurristat:


We can use the chinese alphabet, god knows how many characters are in that.

Anyway- to TD 1E-- It looks like it has gotten a bit weaker since this morning, and yet they still upgraded it. Hmmm. I think I'll give it a 50-60% chance of becoming Andres. Which is relatively low. What do you all think about it?

I had another point/question to make, but I completely forgot it.


Yeah it's problem might be the dry/stable air mass to its west. You can see it represented by the yellow mass of stratocumulus on this loop. The subtropical jet is also just to the north which could start inflicting shear on TD 1 soon.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25443
998. Drakoen 5:52 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
Levi, you look a lot older in that pic than the previous one.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010
999. Levi32 5:52 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
Quoting Drakoen:
Levi, you look a lot older in that pic than the previous one.


Bah it's supposed to be on my blog not on my avatar. And yes I'm 2 years older than the other pic you guys saw.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25443
1000. hurristat 5:53 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
Quoting Levi32:


Yeah it's problem might be the dry/stable air mass to its west. You can see it represented by the yellow mass of stratocumulus on this loop. The subtropical jet is also just to the north which could start inflicting shear on TD 1 soon.


Figured it was something like that- just wanted someone else's opinion.
Member Since: October 15, 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 2302
1001. WPBHurricane05 5:53 PM GMT on June 18, 2009    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012009
1100 AM PDT THU JUN 18 2009

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO SOUTHWARD TO EL ROBLITO AND FOR
LAS ISLAS MARIAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THAT
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WAS LOCATED FARTHER
SOUTHEAST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
...NEAR LATITUDE 17.7
NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.4 WEST OR ABOUT 400 MILES...645 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO AND ABOUT 265 MILES...430
KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...14 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST LATE
FRIDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE PACIFIC
COAST OF MEXICO BY FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE
REACHING THE COAST.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.7N 108.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BERG
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 55 Comments: 7897

Viewing: 951 - 1001

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40Blog Index

New Comment
Community Standards Policy Comments will take a few seconds to appear.
Post Your Comments
Please sign in to post comments.
Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.
About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather
Scattered Clouds
70 °F
Scattered Clouds
Community Activity