Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Fourth warmest May on record
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 10:01 PM GMT on June 16, 2009 +6
The globe recorded its fourth warmest May on record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The period January - May tied with 2003 as the sixth warmest such period on record. Global temperature records go back to 1880.

A warm and wet May for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., May temperatures were the 24th warmest in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The Southeast region experienced its second wettest May in 115-years of record-keeping. In contrast, the West North Central region had their sixth driest May. Both Florida (9.86 inches) and Arkansas (10.91 inches) experienced their all-time wettest May. The last time Florida saw a record wet May was in 1976 when 9.15 inches of precipitation fell. Arkansas experienced its last record wet May in 1930 when 10.07 inches of precipitation fell. U.S. tornado activity was below average in May, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

On June 9, 2009, 14% of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought. This is a drop from the 19% figure observed at the beginning of the year. The amount of the U.S. in the highest levels of drought, extreme to exceptional, decreased from 2.6% on May 12 to 1.5% on June 9. These extreme drought regions were in South Texas.

El Niño watch issued
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Watch last week, saying "that conditions are favorable for a transition from neutral to El Niño conditions during June - August 2009". The pattern of changes in surface winds, upper-level winds, sea surface temperatures, and deeper water heat content are all consistent with what has been observed during previous developing El Niños. We are currently experiencing neutral conditions, with ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific just 0.2°C below the threshold for El Niño. In the week since the El Niño watch was issued, ocean temperatures have remained nearly steady in the Eastern Pacific, so we are not rushing into an El Niño just yet. As discussed in detail in an earlier blog post, most of our more advanced El Niño computer models are predicting a weak El Niño event for the coming Atlantic hurricane season. If this indeed occurs, it is likely that Atlantic hurricane activity will be suppressed due to the strong upper-level winds an El Niño usually brings to the tropical Atlantic, creating high wind shear that tears hurricanes apart.

Sea ice extent in the Arctic near average during May
May 2009 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was near average in May, coming in at 15th lowest (16th highest) since 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. The record May low was set in 2004. The rate of ice decline in May accelerated, and by the end of the month the decline rate was equal to last year's rate. Warmer than usual temperatures over the Arctic during May contributed to this acceleration. The Arctic remains vulnerable to near-record melting this summer if much warmer than average temperatures occur over the region, since the ice is at record thinness this summer. Thin ice requires less energy to melt, and it also tends to be more fractured, with increased open water amid the ice. Since water absorbs more sunlight than ice, heat from the sun can more rapidly melt this fractured ice.

Jeff Masters
Categories: Climate Summaries
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1301. stillwaiting 2:44 AM GMT on June 19, 2009    
Taz:tomorrow could be the biggest outbreak of severe wx in the last 6 weeks!!!
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1302. Tazmanian 2:45 AM GMT on June 19, 2009    
Quoting stillwaiting:
Taz:tomorrow could be the biggest outbreak of severe wx in the last 6 weeks!!!



wow
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1303. stillwaiting 2:46 AM GMT on June 19, 2009    
Quoting Drakoen:
AOI east of TD-1


I believe thats the trough that moved over the yucatan!!!
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1304. Tazmanian 2:46 AM GMT on June 19, 2009    
looks like per 93E is trying too get a better look too it
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1305. Levi32 2:47 AM GMT on June 19, 2009    
Quoting Tazmanian:
WA has not seen rain in 29 days would this have some in to do with EL NIno???


I don't think so directly but I'm not an expert on the ENSO's affect on all regions of the globe. It's typically supposed to be wetter there during an El Nino episode which makes sense due to the sub-tropical jet being farther north in the east Pacific. The pattern is supposed to turn wetter soon with a trough setting up off the US west coast.
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1306. Levi32 2:48 AM GMT on June 19, 2009    
Quoting stillwaiting:


I believe thats the trough that moved over the yucatan!!!


Actually that system can be traced back to the tropical wave that passed through the western Caribbean a couple of days ahead of the trough.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 587 Comments: 25461
1307. Tazmanian 2:50 AM GMT on June 19, 2009    
Quoting Levi32:


I don't think so directly but I'm not an expert on the ENSO's affect on all regions of the globe. It's typically supposed to be wetter there during an El Nino episode which makes sense due to the sub-tropical jet being farther north in the east Pacific. The pattern is supposed to turn wetter soon with a trough setting up off the US west coast.


ok
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1309. stillwaiting 2:52 AM GMT on June 19, 2009    
.
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1310. Patrap 2:54 AM GMT on June 19, 2009    
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1311. KoritheMan 2:56 AM GMT on June 19, 2009    
As I expected, no upgrade tonight for TD One-E. The NHC still seems to think that tropical storm status is possible prior to landfall, but I disagree.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 411 Comments: 15474
1313. Levi32 2:58 AM GMT on June 19, 2009    
Quoting KoritheMan:
As I expected, no upgrade tonight for TD One-E. The NHC still seems to think that tropical storm status is possible prior to landfall, but I disagree.


Same here. If it was going to get named it should have been yesterday.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 587 Comments: 25461
1314. KoritheMan 3:03 AM GMT on June 19, 2009    
Quoting Levi32:


Same here. If it was going to get named it should have been yesterday.


It didn't have a closed surface circulation yesterday. I was observing both visible satellite imagery as well as QuikSCAT data, and there were no northerly winds on the western side of the circulation. Winds were instead northeasterly.

It did not get classified yesterday because the circulation was ill-defined, and it still looked somewhat connected to the ITCZ.
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1315. stillwaiting 3:04 AM GMT on June 19, 2009    
did that "moon rocket" launch???
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1316. Levi32 3:07 AM GMT on June 19, 2009    
Quoting KoritheMan:


It didn't have a closed surface circulation yesterday. I was observing both visible satellite imagery as well as QuikSCAT data, and there were n no northerly winds on the western side of the circulation. Winds were instead northeasterly.

It did not get classified yesterday because the circulation was ill-defined, and it still looked somewhat connected to the ITCZ.


Ok I didn't get to look at QuikSCAT data yesterday. I can't remember if it was last night or the night before when we were observing the LLC exposed north of the convection. At that time it was plain to see it was closed, so it was for at least 6 hours at some point.
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1317. KoritheMan 3:10 AM GMT on June 19, 2009    
Quoting Levi32:


Ok I didn't get to look at QuikSCAT data yesterday. I can't remember if it was last night or the night before when we were observing the LLC exposed north of the convection. At that time it was plain to see it was closed, so it was for at least 6 hours at some point.


But by that point, convection had begun to wane again.
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1318. Levi32 3:11 AM GMT on June 19, 2009    
Quoting KoritheMan:


But by the point, convection had begun to wane again.


Yeah it was a TD for those 6 hours give or take but due to its ragged appearance later it was probably a good call after all for the NHC to delay classifying it.
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1320. Levi32 3:12 AM GMT on June 19, 2009    
Quoting hurricane2009:


That was the night before


I thought so.
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1321. Skyepony (Mod) 3:14 AM GMT on June 19, 2009    
Moon rocket launched. Last minute thunderstorm delayed it til 5:32. I got a quick glimpse between clouds. Uploaded a pic to WU. Pretty anticlimatic for a launch. Barely saw it & the plume blew away before the rumble came. Quickest plume disipation ever.
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1322. SavannahStorm 3:15 AM GMT on June 19, 2009    
Wow, check out my forecast for the next few days:


Friday
Partly cloudy.
Near record highs in the upper 90s.
Heat index values up to 111 in the afternoon.
West winds 5 to 10 mph.


Friday Night
Mostly clear.
Lows in the mid 70s.
Heat index values up to 110 early in the evening.
South winds 5 to 10 mph.


Saturday
Sunny...
hot with record highs around 103. (!!!!!!)
West winds 5 to 10 mph.
Heat index values up to 109.


Saturday Night
Mostly clear.
Lows in the upper 70s.
West winds 5 to 10 mph.
Heat index values up to 106 early in the evening.


Sunday
Sunny in the morning...then becoming partly cloudy.
Hot with near record highs around 100.
Heat index values up to 110.



Sunday Night
Partly cloudy.
Lows in the mid 70s.
Heat index values up to 105 early in the evening.

Monday
Partly cloudy.
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Highs in the mid 90s.
Chance of rain 20 percent.
Heat index values up to 105.

I think it may be time to get the A/C fixed in my car...
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1323. Tazmanian 3:18 AM GMT on June 19, 2009    
whats the update with the SOI
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1325. Orcasystems 3:30 AM GMT on June 19, 2009    
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1326. Skyepony (Mod) 3:32 AM GMT on June 19, 2009    
Taz here's SOI. ESPI is -.50. La Niña seems to be just reaching neutral in the atmosphere.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29374
1327. melwerle 3:34 AM GMT on June 19, 2009    
Quoting SavannahStorm:
Wow, check out my forecast for the next few days:


Friday
Partly cloudy.
Near record highs in the upper 90s.
Heat index values up to 111 in the afternoon.
West winds 5 to 10 mph.


Friday Night
Mostly clear.
Lows in the mid 70s.
Heat index values up to 110 early in the evening.
South winds 5 to 10 mph.


Saturday
Sunny...
hot with record highs around 103. (!!!!!!)
West winds 5 to 10 mph.
Heat index values up to 109.


Saturday Night
Mostly clear.
Lows in the upper 70s.
West winds 5 to 10 mph.
Heat index values up to 106 early in the evening.


Sunday
Sunny in the morning...then becoming partly cloudy.
Hot with near record highs around 100.
Heat index values up to 110.



Sunday Night
Partly cloudy.
Lows in the mid 70s.
Heat index values up to 105 early in the evening.

Monday
Partly cloudy.
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Highs in the mid 90s.
Chance of rain 20 percent.
Heat index values up to 105.

I think it may be time to get the A/C fixed in my car...


Savannah - i was looking at your forecast and going "damn, i didn't know anyone had it worse than me" and then i realized it WAS here...

go to the dealership, have your a/c fixed. I did it two months ago - cost me everything in the world but i could live without it.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 1837
1328. Tazmanian 3:38 AM GMT on June 19, 2009    
Quoting Skyepony:
Taz here's SOI. ESPI is -.50. La Niña seems to be just reaching neutral in the atmosphere.




thanks sky
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1329. SavannahStorm 3:43 AM GMT on June 19, 2009    
Argh, I just got new tires and a new paint job. I'm putting more money into my old Jeep than it's worth. The A/C compressor is bad, but it is run through the firewall, so they have to pull out everything plus the kitchen sink to get at it. It's a super expensive fix. I think I'll just have to make due with riding with the windows down. As long as I keep it above 50 mph it'll feel fairly comfortable...
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1330. Levi32 3:45 AM GMT on June 19, 2009    
Quoting Skyepony:
Taz here's SOI. ESPI is -.50. La Niña seems to be just reaching neutral in the atmosphere.


Wow that's weird....I could have sworn the north Indian Ocean was below average rainfall for this month. The monsoon was completely shut down there for a couple of weeks due to the MJO.

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1331. Orcasystems 3:46 AM GMT on June 19, 2009    
Quoting melwerle:


Savannah - i was looking at your forecast and going "damn, i didn't know anyone had it worse than me" and then i realized it WAS here...

go to the dealership, have your a/c fixed. I did it two months ago - cost me everything in the world but i could live without it.


For the life of me can think of no Logical reason to live somewhere with weather like that.
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1332. melwerle 3:49 AM GMT on June 19, 2009    
Go talk to Sara at the dealership if you have a jeep...she's cool. I have a cryseler and she totally took care of me.
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1333. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 3:55 AM GMT on June 19, 2009    
get a block of dry ice and a fan put fan behind block of ice turn fan on high theres ya ac o by the way ya might need a metal rack and bucket to catch the melt water in once ice has melted then you not only have ac but a refreshing cool drink as well

lol
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1334. melwerle 3:56 AM GMT on June 19, 2009    
And that, orca, is why i am going home to San Diego. i keep walking outside and asking "how do people LIVE like this"
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1335. Orcasystems 3:58 AM GMT on June 19, 2009    
Quoting melwerle:
And that, orca, is why i am going home to San Diego. i keep walking outside and asking "how do people LIVE like this"


I like SD , Golfing up at Balboa Park... and the North and South Navy courses.. and the tram to TJ
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1336. melwerle 4:04 AM GMT on June 19, 2009    
Quoting Orcasystems:


I like SD , Golfing up at Balboa Park... and the North and South Navy courses.. and the tram to TJ

No more trolley to TJ unless you want your head cut off and your eyes gouged out. It's a very sad thing since they rely on tourists but the drug trade has made it impossible to go there. My sister's kid had another teammate who's brother was murdered down there with his girlfriend. You can't go there anymore
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1337. Skyepony (Mod) 4:13 AM GMT on June 19, 2009    
Biggest tree die off in recorded history is standing dead out west & in Canada. 10's of millions. So many they say it's affecting weather patterns. Looked like if it caught a fire then it could considerably worsen the water shortage. Pine beetles may have set us up for an epic fire season..
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1338. Orcasystems 4:18 AM GMT on June 19, 2009    
Quoting melwerle:

No more trolley to TJ unless you want your head cut off and your eyes gouged out. It's a very sad thing since they rely on tourists but the drug trade has made it impossible to go there. My sister's kid had another teammate who's brother was murdered down there with his girlfriend. You can't go there anymore


Its been awhile... but I know there were areas in SD we didn't go unless you were armed...
South of Broadway toward's the Naval dockyard... those neighbourhoods were rough.
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1339. Skyepony (Mod) 4:19 AM GMT on June 19, 2009    
Levi~ ESPI has actually come up a bit. Been around -1 or lower mostly the last few years.
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1340. Orcasystems 4:29 AM GMT on June 19, 2009    
City: Workers Must Wear Underwear
Deodorant Also Included In Florida City's Revised Dress Code

I don't think I even want to know.
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1342. Chicklit 4:35 AM GMT on June 19, 2009    
quiet and simmering here in fla...we could use a little tropical activity to cool things down as long as the lid doesn't blow off!
anything on the horizon?

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1343. charlottefl 4:36 AM GMT on June 19, 2009    
Evening or Morning Everyone! I got a picture of my completed weather station project. Just take a minute or two to upload it.
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1344. Chicklit 4:36 AM GMT on June 19, 2009    
i am having a cold beer after i just went to post my weekly assignment (due by midnight) and the UCF server was down.
ya know, it's been that kind of a week.
btw, what happened to drak?
was he banned for giving levi a hard time?
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10255
1345. Levi32 4:37 AM GMT on June 19, 2009    
Quoting Chicklit:
quiet and simmering here in fla...we could use a little tropical activity to cool things down as long as the lid doesn't blow off!
anything on the horizon?



Well not before you get relief of another kind =)

How does a nice refreshing summer cold front sound?

GFS 5 day forecast:

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1346. Levi32 4:38 AM GMT on June 19, 2009    
Quoting Chicklit:
i am having a cold beer after i just went to post my weekly assignment (due by midnight) and the UCF server was down.
ya know, it's been that kind of a week.
btw, what happened to drak?
was he banned for giving levi a hard time?


He was banned but for some reason is back, I don't know what happened. That little incident was really my fault for talking behind his back anyway.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 587 Comments: 25461
1347. melwerle 4:39 AM GMT on June 19, 2009    
Quoting Orcasystems:


Its been awhile... but I know there were areas in SD we didn't go unless you were armed...
South of Broadway toward's the Naval dockyard... those neighbourhoods were rough.


Yeah but now you can't be armed - only the criminals are armed. We sold our weapon here in GA back to the dealer because we found out we couldn't get a permit.
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1348. charlottefl 4:41 AM GMT on June 19, 2009    
Really excited about this little project. :) Took a while to make, but It's good to go. Might add a few more things later, but like I said again really excited about it.

Photobucket
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1349. hurristat 4:45 AM GMT on June 19, 2009    
LOL about 300 posts ago, I mentioned that the scroll at the top spelled "tornadoes" wrong- look at it now
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1351. hurristat 4:49 AM GMT on June 19, 2009    
Quoting KoritheMan:
As I expected, no upgrade tonight for TD One-E. The NHC still seems to think that tropical storm status is possible prior to landfall, but I disagree.


I agree with you, Korithe.
Member Since: October 15, 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 2302

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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