New $50 million hurricane research center: a bad idea
Hurricane track forecasts have improved by about 50% over the past twenty years, which has undoubtedly saved many lives and billions of dollars. These forecast improvements have primarily resulted from the investment made in hurricane research, which has been funded at approximately $50 million per year over that period. To me, it is unfathomable that our nation spends so little on scientific research that provides such an incredible value. The President's National Science Board, which makes budget recommendations for the National Science Foundation (NSF), agrees, and recommended a six-fold increase in hurricane research spending to $300 million per year in a 2007 report. But exactly how much "bang for the buck" are we getting from hurricane research? The answer is murky, making it difficult to excite the kind of attention and political appeal needed to give hurricane research funding the big shot in the arm it deserves. However, recent moves by the Obama administration show that they are taking notice of the need to spend more money on hurricane research. But, a recent proposal by Rep. Alan Grayson, D-Florida, to build a new $50 million hurricane research center in Orlando, is the wrong way to boost hurricane research.
Figure 1. A science team led by NOAA's Hurricane Research Division (HRD) prepares for a mission into Hurricane Gustav in 2008. Image credit: NOAA/HRD.
How current hurricane research is funded
In 2008, about $50 million was spent by the U.S. government on hurricane research, with about 25% of this total going to maintain the facilities that do the research. The $50 million funded 228 person-years of research. About 35% of this was provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), with the rest of the money coming from the National Science Foundation (NSF), Office of Naval Research (ONR), and NASA. An additional $4 million was earmarked by Congress in 2008 to fund NOAA's promising new effort to improve hurricane intensity forecasts--the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP).
Where future funding increases should go: HFIP and JHT
The President's proposed FY 2010 budget continues the roughly $50 million dollars the hurricane research community traditionally gets, but adds $13 million in funding for the HFIP effort. To me, this is a great way to channel new hurricane research funding, as the HFIP effort is heavily focused on improving hurricane intensity forecasts, which have not improved at all over the past twenty years. Specific advancements outlined in the HFIP plan include:
1) Improving hurricane track forecast accuracy by 50% out to 5 days by 2018.
2) Improving hurricane intensity forecast accuracy by 50% out to 5 days by 2018.
3) Extending the lead time for hurricane forecasts out to 7 days.
4) Reducing the false alarm rate for rapid intensity forecasts.
5) Increasing the probability of detection of rapid intensification.
Another great way to boost hurricane research funding would be to put more money into NOAA's Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT) project. This $1 million per year program has funded 50 separate hurricane research efforts over since 2001, 30 of which have been adopted operationally by the National Hurricane Center. Examples of successful JHT projects include the successful integration of the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR) surface wind measurement instrument into NHC operations; improvements to the GFDL and HWRF computer models; and improving techniques to make a "consensus" forecast based on the output of our four best computer models. However, no new money for JHT has been proposed in the FY 2010 budget, though some of the money earmarked for HFIP may flow into JHT.
A new $50 million hurricane research center proposed
Instead, a new proposal for hurricane research funding has been championed by Representative Alan Grayson, D-Florida. According to an article in the Orlando Sentinel, Grayson is pushing for a new $50 million hurricane research center to be built in Orlando. He demanded that such a hurricane research center be built in exchange for his vote for the controversial climate change bill passed Friday by the U.S. House, the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009. There is no language in the actual bill authorizing funds for such a center--Grayson merely has the word of democratic lawmakers, including President Obama, that such a center would be built. "I think it's a very worthwhile project. I look forward to working on it and making it a priority as the legislative process moves along," said U.S. Rep. Henry Waxman, the California Democrat who sponsored the bill, in the Orlando Sentinel article. The center could be constructed with funds aimed at helping states "study and adapt to climate change," money that would not be available until 2012 at the earliest. The hurricane center is "among the type of activities that would be eligible to receive funding," Waxman said. "We've never had anything [like this] come into this district before, ever," said Grayson, a freshman lawmaker. "This will be the world-leading facility for hurricane research. This will draw people from all over the world."
Well, I have championed efforts to give more funding to hurricane research over the years, and I think the $300 million per year in funding for the National Hurricane Research Initiative proposed in 2007 by the President's National Science Board is what is needed. However, I think Grayson's proposed new hurricane center is a bad idea. Florida already has a world-leading facility for hurricane research, NOAA's Hurricane Research Division on Virginia Key, and does not need another. The U.S. hurricane research community has an infrastructure in place that works, and the best way to foster hurricane research is to pump money into this existing infrastructure. I talked with a number of senior hurricane research scientists about the idea of a new hurricane research center, and none of them supported it. It's great that Rep. Grayson's wants to put new much-needed funding into hurricane research, but he didn't consult with the experts to see if a new research center was a good way to do this. It isn't. Where are all of the scientists needed to staff such a center going to come from? Presumably, they will be drawn from existing successful research teams, leading to the disruption of these proven research efforts. Adding a new national research center with a new bureaucracy with new management needing on-the-job training will dilute and distract from current hurricane research efforts, and is not a good way to spend $50 million. Several senior hurricane research scientists are going to be reaching out to Rep. Grayson over the next few months to make him more aware of the abilities and needs of the hurricane research community. Hopefully, these efforts will result in a more productive way for the Congressman to boost hurricane research. If you live in Rep. Grayson's district, I recommend you contact him to express your desire to see him champion a more effective way to boost hurricane research than with his proposed $50 million hurricane research center. Putting the $50 million into the National Hurricane Research Initiative (HFIP) effort would be a better use of the funds. To his credit, Rep. Grayson is a co-sponsor of the National Hurricane Research Initiative of 2009 (H.R. 327), a bill introduced into the House of Representatives on January 8, 2009. This bill is a lesser ($150 million per year) version of the $300 million per year National Hurricane Research Initiative proposed in 2007 by the President's National Science Board.
Good links for HFIP information are at:
http://www.nrc.noaa.gov/HFIPDraftPlan.html
http://www.dtcenter.org/plots/hrh_test/workshop20 09/presentations/1_Gall_HRH%20HFIP%20presentation. pdf
Some summaries of recent HFIP activities in the last year are at:
http://www.dtcenter.org/plots/hrh_test/index.php
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/research/tropical _cyclones/hfip/workshop_2009/
My next post will be Friday, when I'll have the first half of July hurricane outlook.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Jeff Masters
hmmm you said wed would be your July hurricane outlook.
Link
olny $50???
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which now also includes Weather456, daily updates
AOI
AOI
Wanted to repost this in the new blog:
I took a look at the CFS model forecast for
the next few months off of the AccuWeather
Pro site and found a couple of interesting
things.
July: The UL low looks to lift NE this month
into eastern Canada which may allow some
warmth into the NE US. Lots of hvy precip
off of coast of Africa, but then tapers off
the further west you go, which likely means
any TWs will "peter out" the further west you
go. Lack of precip over much of Caribbean
likely due to Columbian low pressure system.
August & September: Found the precip strip
up off of the US East Coast interesting, may
be a clue to tropical systems paralleling
the US East Coast as they track N and NE.
Also, there is an area of heavier precip
over the NE Gulf of Mexico that is kind of
curious. Wondering if this means something?
The setup is pretty much the same for both
August and September.
October: Area of heavier precip near North
Carolina coast and near Cuba.
Looks like Caribbean stays dry for much of
the summer and also interestingly the western
Gulf of Mexico until September and October.
Thoughts are more than welcome!!
-Rob @ Crown Weather Services
http://www.crownweather.com
LOL Taz I could afford that but its $50 million...$50,000,000.
What Hurricane Research Center
If you read some of the comments... it does not have many supporters at all.
Every year, I look forward to producing these incredible animations for all my friends at WeatherUnderground.com, but never more so than this year! Produced in spectacular HD for the first time, other firsts include a new animation of Hurricane Alley and new imagery of the Hurricane Sector that highlights the landmasses not with a drawn line, but with natural lighting. It is truly an amazing sequence of images that will hold you spellbound, even though June 2009 was a quiet month in the tropics. So sit back and enjoy this unique experience of watching the world go by day by day from space as provided by imagery created by the GOES East Satellite!
Happy Birthday Canada
Oh yeah - maybe the money can come from the Stimulus which just adds to the bill that will come due some day - very soon.
Don't mistake me: I'm for what Dr. Masters would like have, but I just don't think the dough is gonna be there to do it - unless it's taken from some place else even more vital or comes from some super rich person, like Bill Gates with his $40,000,0000,000.00 in his personal assets.
Canada was established as a self governing country on July 1st, 1867.
There were places called Canada before official Confederation, though. Really, Canada dates back to 1535, when Jacques Cartier first discovered it.
Typical shallow politician....Now I know who not to vote for in the future...
Thanks StormW. BTW, did you get a chance to look at the CFS model forecast? If you have, what are your thoughts?
I too read the article about the new Hurricane Research Center and I'll admit I'm a bit puzzled by the location. I love Orlando and think its a great area, don't get me wrong, but funnel the money to already established research centers either down in Miami or even over at FSU's tropical meteorology program or any of the other already established research centers. JMHO.
First Day of July
LINK
Note: "O Canada" has become the rally song of the fifth inning, sung whenever Florida State bats in the fifth. There are many, many rumors as to how this tradition was started, so it just depends on whom you ask. A Canadian flag was added to the Animals in 1991, and is now raised whenever the anthem is sung. We even sing %u201CO Canada%u201D in French from time to time if the mood hits us just right. It%u2019s become such a well-known tradition that even the organist at the ACC Tournament when it%u2019s in Durham, NC plays the anthem whenever FSU bats in the 5th inning.
2:32 PM GMT on July 01, 2009
Yes, $50 would not fund much research! Fixed.
Jeff
I really like seeing observations and discussions like this on the Dr's site. Especially when explained in lamens terms, it is posts like this that help me to look at the big picture, not just a day or two out....
Might get them a nice coffee machine though!
Caffeine may be all they need to improve forecasts! We just saved $50 million dollars with a $50 purchase.
Thanks Dr. Masters. :)
I like it... now there is a place I could go visit :)
hehe! no doubt... I think I could fund the $50 project. Maybe I could get the facility named after me to...lol!
I love it when the Dr. post in the forums!!!
And that folks, is how your so-called "leaders" conduct the business of the country! His vote was cast "not" on the merits of the bill, but as bribery for other legislation, a facility (most likey to benefit a contractor) that would be constructed even without the input of those that would run it! LOL. Pathetic.
Nice blog, Doc. Agreed. Thanks.
No need to outlay more Fed funds.
ESL by LSU
hah! it always helps mine... i think i have already guzzled 2 this morning
Probably. Although IMO...if we don't have pork barrel funding, my representative would be useless.
The one agency that knew what it was doing (and did a hell of a job doing it) after Katrina, the Coast Guard, has had its funding slashed a number of times. The Deepwater Program, which was to replace or retrofit the aging Coast Guard fleet of ships and aircraft, has had it's funding yanked. The CG already had a number of problems with equipment during its response to Katrina, so the next time they need to respond, it will be even harder.
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