World storm surge records
There's still not much to talk about the tropical Atlantic today. The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the band of intense thunderstorms that spans the tropical Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, has grown more active in the past few days, though. The two tropical waves in the ITCZ closest to the coast of Africa bear some scrutiny this week as they cross the Atlantic. However, none of the models are currently forecasting development of these waves, and there is plenty of wind shear and dry air that will interfere with potential development.
World storm surge records
In preparation for the release of a major new storm surge section of the web site, I've been researching storm surge records. The Bathurst Bay Cyclone, also known as Tropical Cyclone Mahina, which struck Bathurst Bay, Australia on March 5, 1899, is generally credited with the world record for storm surge. The cyclone's storm surge is variously listed at 13 - 14.6 meters (43 - 48 feet). The Category 5 cyclone was a monster--with sustained winds in excess of 175 mph and a central pressure between 880 and 914 mb. Mahina killed at least 307 people, mostly on pearling ships, and was the deadliest cyclone in Australian history. The eyewitness account of Mahina's record storm surge was provided by Constable J. M. Kenny, who journeyed to Barrow Point on Bathurst Bay to investigate a crime on the day of the storm. While camped on a ridge 40 feet above sea level and 1/2 mile inland, Kenny's camp was inundated by a storm wave, reaching waist-deep. On nearby Flinders Island, fish and dolphins were found on top of 15 meter (49 foot) cliffs. However, an analysis by Nott and Hayne (2000) found no evidence of storm-deposited debris higher than 3 - 5 meters above mean sea level in the region. They also cited two computer storm surge simulations of the cyclone that were unable to generate a surge higher than three meters. Indeed, Bathurst Bay is not ideally situated to receive high storm surges. The Great Barrier Reef lies just 20 - 40 km offshore, and the ocean bottom near the bay is not shallow, but steeply sloped. Both of these factors should conspire to keep storm surges well below the record 13 - 14.6 meters reported. The authors concluded that the actual surge from the Bathurst Bay Cyclone may have been 3 - 5 meters. The observed inundation at 13 meters elevation, plus the observation of dolphins deposited at 15 meters above sea level, could have been caused by high waves on top of the surge, they argue. Waves on top of the surge (called "wave run-up") can reach five times the wave height at the shore for steeply fronted coasts like at Bathurst Bay. Since waves in the Bathurst Bay Cyclone could easily have been 3 meters, 15 meters of wave run-up on top of the surge is quite feasible. Since wave run-up doesn't count as surge, the status of the 1899 Bathurst Bay Hurricane as the world-record holder for storm surge is questionable. However, the event is certainly the record holder for the high water mark set by a tropical cyclone's storm surge, an important category in its own right.
Figure 1. Satellite image of Bathurst Bay, Queensland Province, Australia. The record 43 - 48 foot storm surge wave occurred on Barrow Point, marked by an "x" on the map above. Image credit: NASA.
Figure 2. Track of the 1899 Bathurst Bay cyclone. Bathurst Bay is located at the point where the 914 mb pressure is listed. Image credit: Whittingham, 1958.
Australian storm surge records
The largest storm surges in Australia occur in Gulf of Carpentaria, due to the large expanse of shallow water there (the Gulf of Carpentaria is the large bay to the left of the zoomed-in map of Bathurst Bay shown above). According to an email I received from Australian hurricane scientist Jeffrey Callaghan, "From all reports the storm surge from the disastrous 5 March 1887 cyclone flooded almost all of Burketown (some 30km inland from the Gulf). A copy of a 1918 report to the Queensland Parliament from the Department of Harbours and Rivers Engineer refers to the sea rising to 5.5 metres above the highest spring tide level at the Albert River Heads. This level is about 8 metres (26.2 feet) above Australian Height Datum (AHD). The biggest measured surge in the Gulf of Carpenteria occurred on 30 March 1923, when a surge of 21.4 feet was recorded at a Groote Eylandt Mission".
So what is the world storm surge record if the Bathurst Bay cyclone does not qualify? Well, I haven't researched storms in the Indian Ocean or Pacific Typhoons yet, but it might be difficult to find any storm that beats Hurricane Katrina's 27.8 foot storm surge.
References:
Nott, J, N. Hayne, 2000: How high was the storm surge from Tropical Cyclone Mahina?", Australian Journal of Emergency Management, Autumn 2000.
Anonymous, 1899, The Outridge Report--The Pearling Disaster 1899: A Memorial", The Outridge Company, 1899
Whittingham, 1958, "The Bathurst Bay hurricane and associated storm surge", Australian Meteorological Magazine, No. 27, pp. 40-41. Scanned and put on-line courtesy of John McBride.
I'll have an update on Tuesday, when the latest CSU seasonal hurricane forecast comes out at 11am EDT.
.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Playing hookey today to watch the tropics... seems I may have wasted another day haha!
Good Morning StormW...good to see you...:)
ECMWF hasn't really shown a strong TS in the Atlantic basin all season.
So far it's been correct. To me, that's the model to watch on this blob.
Thanks for that Ike. I had said it would be an invest by now & I was wrong. I'll admit it if ya'll won't crow me.. They're cute & I've had one for a pet. If that had been in the gulf this long it'd be an invest by now.
yea, morning to you too.
It's under 20+ knots of shear..from the east...models don't do much with it, right now.
Convection has waned....
I agree with your previous post. I think this season should start firing up mid-August.
i totally agree!!!!!!
I see we have a code yellow on our African wave, and some of the models are developing it, but we'll have to wait until it become 99L to get a better picture on it, and I want to see the GFDL, I think's it's a very good and reliable model to watch, and it will probably become Invest 99L today or tomorrow, depending on how it organizes itself today/tomorrow.
We also have two tropical systems in the Pacific, TD Eight-E (future TS Felicia, better wtahc out Hawaii), and TS Enrique, robably a fish storm.
I'll be back a little later.
I think that's also why most of the convection is pushed off to the west and southwest.
There is a chance that the wave by late this evening makes it into a much better shear environment, which could allow for a development of low pressure.
However, if the ULL does not move away from its position nne of the antilies, then strong westerly shear will eventually destroy any chances for tropical development.
Here is the current shear map:
Link
Quoting Weather456:
TWC = Weather plus TV = Gone Bad
Ya...I quit watching TWC once John Hope passed away. It was years ago, and I don't remember which system, but Dr. Lyons swore that the system was going to do one thing and no way it could do the other...and it did totally the opposite of what he said.
i completely agree guys...John Hope was someone you trusted and you knew what he said had substance behind it....Steve Lyons is just trying to be every surfers friend....so i wonder if in a few years we will get TWC2...but then again it might be just like MTV2 and just show "when weather changed the jackass"....or "it could happen in the Hills"....just something to ponder this morning....
I notice it's all gone this morning. Must be dry air...
That would be good because then we would not have that stupid stuff on in the middle of a outbreak of storms during the mid afternoon on TWC
I see that ULL now.
Yeah, you're right.
this is so true...
What do you notice about post 1812?..um look out Hawaii..
The beginning of the Fujiwara Effect?
it almost looks like a train of storms heading for the islands...not good w/the techincal terms, but that last loop the 2nd one is getting way bigger...
The big low near Alaska, and the other one of the west coast.
Maybe the clear weather in the Atlantic, except for the line of moisture leading from Africa to the two back-to-back waves in the CATL?
?
An active ITCZ, possibly meaning a more active MJO?
Oh, both Tropical Depression Eight-E and Tropical Storm Enrique have developed within the ITCZ and appear to may be breaking from it.
Loop
The long monsoon trough/ITCZ that the 2 Tds are embedded in?
Oh, both Tropical Depression Eight-E and Tropical Storm Enrique have developed within the ITCZ and appear to may be breaking from it.
ahhh..ok, on the water vapor satellite...the upper level low in front of the 2...i'm assuming that it can be used as a buffer to move everything out of the way for the 2 or will it hinder the nw movement of them??
Looks like our system is taking that pre-TD shape, a rough, spiky, comma-ish, shape.
I wish I could find the post but basically a feature does not have entirely leave the ITCZ for development. It can close off from the ITCZ's main circulation but still continue to be embedded within a long trough of low pressure. That was the case with Ivan and Felix.
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