Hurricane Felicia hits Category 3; may affect Hawaii next week
As is often the case in an El Niño year, there's nothing to talk about today in the Atlantic, but the Eastern Pacific is very active. It has been 17 years since we went this long without a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic--the hurricane season of 1992 didn't start until August 16--but in the Eastern Pacific, we've already had six named storms this year. Hurricane Felicia is the latest addition, and Felicia has put on an impressive burst of intensification this morning by powering up to Category 3 status with 115 mph winds. Recent satellite loops show that Felicia has continued to intensify, with the cloud tops surrounding the eye cooling as they push higher into the troposphere.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of Hurricane Felicia.
While Felicia is an impressive hurricane now, its days of glory will be short-lived. Felicia is currently passing over a region of warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of 28.5°C, a full 2.5°C above the 26°C threshold needed to sustain a hurricane. These warm waters also extend to great depth, as seen on the Ocean Heat Content image (Figure 2). Felicia's west-northwest track will take the storm into a region of cooler waters with lower Oceanic Heat Content beginning tonight, which should induce a steady weakening trend beginning Thursday night. By Friday morning, SSTs should fall to 26°C, and decline to 25°C by Saturday. While wind shear is expected to remain in the low to moderate range over the next five days, 5 - 15 knots, the cooler SSTs should be able to significantly weaken the hurricane. By Monday, when most of the computer models indicate that Felicia will be nearing the Hawaiian Islands, the storm will be at tropical depression strength with top winds of about 35 mph, according to the latest runs of the HWRF and GFDL models. Exactly how close Felicia will get to the Hawaiian Islands is a bit tricky to call right now, since the hurricane is interacting with nearby Tropical Storm Enrique. Whenever two storms get within 900 miles of each other, they tend to rotate around a common center in a dance called the Fujiwhara Effect. This sort of storm-storm interaction is a complicated affair not well-handled by the computer forecast models.
Figure 2. Total oceanic heat content (also called the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, TCHP) along the forecast path of Hurricane Felicia. The initial time of the forecast is 06 UTC (1 am EDT) on August 5, 2009. Oceanic heat content of 90 kJ per square cm is often associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes. Felicia is currently over waters with high heat content, but the heat content will steadily decrease over the next two days. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB.
There are no areas of disturbed weather in the Atlantic worth mentioning today, and no computer models forecast tropical storm development over the next seven days.
I'll have an update on Thursday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Hi Patrap...
My father was stationed in Kadena AB Okinawa. Those Typoons can be a rough one... we've had several when we were living there on top of a hill!! It was pretty bad...
so it's getting organized?
What's D-MIN?
So we now have a 1012 MB low associated with the area of convection. They might bring it back up to Yellow at 2 AM.
expected to become a 1011 MB low maybe yellow tonight
The first part of your statement is important to watch, while the second means almost nothing :). The CMC wants to blow up everything. :)
Each one starts looking better & better this time of the year but the "one" that will survive the transition to the water, and maintain structure and convection well past the Cape Verde islands to make TD status in the Central Atlantic is hard to pinpoint this early in it's journey..........Just have to keep an eye on it (and the models).
not anymore, CMC has improved tremendously this year
I think it is the time where the atmosphere is warmer than the sea surface
The CMC has had some improvements. Right now no model has been reliable this year. The GFS has had a lot of cyclogenesis faults.
Passed through the Big Island in '70 on way back from Vietnam. Lot's of poor people living in rough housing...hope it has changed some.....
No info from military or government yet. I'm sure the info will start soon as some will be a little panicky until the weakening begins.
There is a good possibility of flooding and tidal issues in the Hilo area. With the mountains in the middle of the island, everything runs down to the coast.
"I'm a Metal Farmer......"....Lol
This is true. ;)
I also noticed NHC upped Felicia's winds to 125 mph.
Oh yeah, i'm sure it has changed. Been awhile since we've been back there, but they want to go back and visit again soon.
The rollover text reads: Hurricane forums are full of excited comments about central pressure and wind speed and comparisons to Camille and 1931 and 1938, with hastily-tacked-on notes about how it will be tragic if anyone dies and they hope it's a dud.
Hmmm.... ;)
from xkcd
Signs of the MJO
No kidding...
Good afternoon 456. Thoughts on the tropics?
To really answer the question you must ask another:
When was the last you saw afternoon thunderstorms so prevalent?
Good afternoon weather456
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL012009_One.pdf
Stay safe......Navy???
I havent dismiss our low pressure out in the CATL. I saw they added a 1012 mb low and its forecast to drop to 1011 mb.
Also watching the upper low north of the islands and some the African waves rolling off.
Don't see anything imminent tho.
I am more concerned about our two African waves.
Unrelated, check out the CMC of the wave behind
Well I monitoring it just incase. it is really not in any position for subtropical development, but its been persisting for a while, and when thunderstorms starts to develop in the East flank that could set off a chain reaction to warm core.
And Hurricane Andres.
I was about to ask this...
thats what i thought.
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