Claudette hits Florida; Ana approaches Puerto RIco; Bill becomes our first hurricane
Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall at about 1:15 am EDT near the eastern end of Santa Rosa Island, just southeast of Fort Walton Beach in Florida. Claudette's top winds were around 50 mph. A Personal Weather Station in Eastpoint, FL recorded sustained winds of 49 mph, gusting to 66 mph last night. So far, the rain from Claudette has had a tough time penetrating inland (Figure 2). Heavy rains of 3 - 4 inches have been confined to a narrow strip of coast, and Claudette is unlikely to cause any major flooding. Apalachicola received just over 4 inches of rain so far from Claudette. Radar animations out of the Florida Panhandle show that heavy rains continue along the coast in association with a main spiral band of Claudette, and these rains will gradually subside today.
Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Claudette as it approached landfall just southeast of Fort Walton Beach shortly after midnight on 8/17/09.
The tropics featured a rare triple threat the past two days--simultaneous named storms beginning with the letters A, B, and C. The last time this occurred was in the slow-starting 1984 hurricane season, when Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cesar were all active on September 1. This year's A, B, and C storms all got their names in just a 33 hour span. This is not a record, since in 1995, three tropical storms--Humberto, Iris, and Jerry--got their names in a 27-hour span (thanks to NOAA's Ryan Sharp for looking up this stat).
Figure 2. Total precipitation estimated by radar for Claudette, as of 3:28pm EDT 8/17/09.
Ana not dead yet
Tropical Depression Ana continues to cling to life, and is now approaching landfall in Puerto Rico. Radar animations from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar show a surface circulation just southeast of the island, with some low-level spiral banding trying to develop to the south. Recent satellite images also show a rejuvenation of the heavy thunderstorm activity near Ana's center, as the storm regroups from being nearly torn apart yesterday. Ana has already dumped up to 4 inches of rain along the north coast of Puerto Rico, according to radar-estimates.
It is unlikely that Ana will survive past today, however, since the storm will move over both Puerto Rico and the rugged terrain of Hispaniola. The high mountains of these islands should act to disrupt the relatively small and fragile circulation of Ana. None of the computer models foresee that Ana will survive passage over Hispaniola. The Dominican Republic can expect 3 - 6 inches of rain from Ana, and Haiti can expect 1 - 3 inches.
Figure 3. Total precipitation estimated by radar from Ana for Puerto Rico.
Bill becomes the first Atlantic hurricane of 2009
Hurricane Bill continues to gather strength, and is now the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. An eye has appeared on visible and infrared satellite imagery, and Bill is displaying an impressive symmetry, with plenty of low-level spiral banding.
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low range through Wednesday. With Sea Surface Temperatures only 27°C today, substantial intensification may not occur until Tuesday and Wednesday, when SSTs warm to 28 - 29°C and ocean heat content sharply increases. By Thursday, Bill is expected to leave the favorable upper-level wind environment it currently finds itself in, and moderate shear of 15 - 20 knots may limit further intensification.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is a modest trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere near 50°W longitude, that Bill is currently approaching. All of the computer models except the UKMET predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn Bill more to the northwest so that the hurricane misses the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET predicts the trough will not affect Bill much, and that the hurricane will pass through or just north of the islands on Thursday. For now, the UKMET solution is being discounted, since the trough at 50W appears substantial enough on satellite imagery to be able to turn Bill more to the northwest.
A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill even more to the northwest. Most of the models predict Bill will pass very close to Bermuda on Saturday as a result. The HWRF model predicts Bermuda will receive a direct hit at Category 4 strength. Until Bill interacts with the small trough at 50°W, it is too early to be confident of the potential threat to Bermuda. By Tuesday, we should have a much better idea of the threat. Likewise, I would like to see the UKMET model come around in line with the other models before dismissing the possible threat to the U.S. East Coast. It currently appears that Bill will miss the U.S. East Coast, but that a strike on the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia is possible.
I'll have an update Tuesday morning, or possibly this afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 — Blog Index
1921 - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1921_Tampa_Bay_hurricane
They may fly between the two islands and check out what they can N of the DR but given the proximity of the convection to the coast they will probably not be able to get on the S side of it due to terrain. If so, the HH will not be able to tell if there are any W winds with that feature and without W winds the NHC will not maintain a TD classification for the new location unless shore based obs provide the necessary data.
Would we be allowed back to our house fairly quickly? My dad lives in NC and he has a pass that allows him back on the island he lives on but they don't do that here.
Since the record US surge was 27.5 feet, I'd say you aren't going to deal with surge...
Now, the bridges over the Bay...well....
Oh, and tag on US 19 as it crosses the Anclote river...
Thanks - I was just curious since you are a "British Isle", if they would take care of you... I am sure that "we" would help if asked, and as you stated we are not nearly as far away. Anyways, good luck to us all. Hopefully no one gets affected but the Fish and the shipping channels!
.
It was taken at Salinas Pueblo Mission in NM. Yep when the ATL heats up you know we start really watching. I'm not 100% sure that Bill will make his predicted turn north which could affect a lot of people. So we watch and wait. Do you have a little down time right now, waiting for a landfall?
Loop
Thanks! I didn't know 19 was such a weak area!
Thanks again for the surge help!
Sure hope she tracks over the islands. If not oh-oh..
Remember she IS a fighter..
It indeed may, Chicklit.
Someone mentioned earlier (and it seemed to make sense) that if the system is moving west a 30mph, it would be very difficult to find 30mph west winds. Your thoughts?
Entirely dependent on what pinellas county emergency management policy is. Check in with the sheriff's office, and St. pete police et al. If the bridges are out, I would imagine they'd start evacuating remaining people via boat and air, and begin cleanup.
Could mean they have given up looking for W winds down S
Well they have it at 69.5 and 19.5 so I'd think it possible? Or am I looking at the plot points incorrectly?
50W is going to be interesting... If Bill gets caught up in the trof or "ignores" it (for whatever reason) and keeps on trucking West to WNW.
I hope this isn't a "LOOKOUT!" situation...
Full-Sized imag Per the Navy site
That has happened before where the HH has struggled to find a W wind with a fast mover. Having said that the guys that fly those missions are very good and if they believe the W wind is out there they will stay and hunt for hours looking for it.
Actually it was Patrap who brought it to my attention, so...thanks Pat.
Do you remember seeing 90L's center jump over into another blob around the Leeward Islands? I recall thinking a miracle would be required to save it from shear and then it magically switched locations and continued north toward the Bahamas.
7:23 PM GMT on August 17, 2009
Coming soon, I'll have a full set of storm surge maps for the coast. You can take a sneak preview:
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/FlGulfCoastSurge.asp
Jeff Masters
While the county may not have re-entry tags it may depend on your municipality. St. Pete beach and Treasure Island have a tagging system. I would check your city public safety web-site and see if they have anything.
On another note, I have worked for emergency management in the state of Florida for awhile until recently moving to NC. Pinellas County is especially vulnerable to being isolated after a major storm. As others have advised I would plan on evacuating early so as to get through Hillsborough before they start their evacuations. Traffic would be a mess if you wait too long.
No sweat. Here's our Emergency Management page... I wrote most of the stuff on it...
http://www.pinellascounty.org/emergency
In reading a few other blogger in your area I am wondering if you do not have mandatory evacuations for coastal areas in strong storms as we do. Since we live on the Intracoastal island we must evacuate even though our elevation is quite high.
I would hope so since you all are the office sports grill of the Dolphins.
Yep
Back in a few minutes
Viewing: 1251 - 1301
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 — Blog Index