Claudette hits Florida; Ana approaches Puerto RIco; Bill becomes our first hurricane
Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall at about 1:15 am EDT near the eastern end of Santa Rosa Island, just southeast of Fort Walton Beach in Florida. Claudette's top winds were around 50 mph. A Personal Weather Station in Eastpoint, FL recorded sustained winds of 49 mph, gusting to 66 mph last night. So far, the rain from Claudette has had a tough time penetrating inland (Figure 2). Heavy rains of 3 - 4 inches have been confined to a narrow strip of coast, and Claudette is unlikely to cause any major flooding. Apalachicola received just over 4 inches of rain so far from Claudette. Radar animations out of the Florida Panhandle show that heavy rains continue along the coast in association with a main spiral band of Claudette, and these rains will gradually subside today.
Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Claudette as it approached landfall just southeast of Fort Walton Beach shortly after midnight on 8/17/09.
The tropics featured a rare triple threat the past two days--simultaneous named storms beginning with the letters A, B, and C. The last time this occurred was in the slow-starting 1984 hurricane season, when Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cesar were all active on September 1. This year's A, B, and C storms all got their names in just a 33 hour span. This is not a record, since in 1995, three tropical storms--Humberto, Iris, and Jerry--got their names in a 27-hour span (thanks to NOAA's Ryan Sharp for looking up this stat).
Figure 2. Total precipitation estimated by radar for Claudette, as of 3:28pm EDT 8/17/09.
Ana not dead yet
Tropical Depression Ana continues to cling to life, and is now approaching landfall in Puerto Rico. Radar animations from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar show a surface circulation just southeast of the island, with some low-level spiral banding trying to develop to the south. Recent satellite images also show a rejuvenation of the heavy thunderstorm activity near Ana's center, as the storm regroups from being nearly torn apart yesterday. Ana has already dumped up to 4 inches of rain along the north coast of Puerto Rico, according to radar-estimates.
It is unlikely that Ana will survive past today, however, since the storm will move over both Puerto Rico and the rugged terrain of Hispaniola. The high mountains of these islands should act to disrupt the relatively small and fragile circulation of Ana. None of the computer models foresee that Ana will survive passage over Hispaniola. The Dominican Republic can expect 3 - 6 inches of rain from Ana, and Haiti can expect 1 - 3 inches.
Figure 3. Total precipitation estimated by radar from Ana for Puerto Rico.
Bill becomes the first Atlantic hurricane of 2009
Hurricane Bill continues to gather strength, and is now the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. An eye has appeared on visible and infrared satellite imagery, and Bill is displaying an impressive symmetry, with plenty of low-level spiral banding.
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low range through Wednesday. With Sea Surface Temperatures only 27°C today, substantial intensification may not occur until Tuesday and Wednesday, when SSTs warm to 28 - 29°C and ocean heat content sharply increases. By Thursday, Bill is expected to leave the favorable upper-level wind environment it currently finds itself in, and moderate shear of 15 - 20 knots may limit further intensification.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is a modest trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere near 50°W longitude, that Bill is currently approaching. All of the computer models except the UKMET predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn Bill more to the northwest so that the hurricane misses the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET predicts the trough will not affect Bill much, and that the hurricane will pass through or just north of the islands on Thursday. For now, the UKMET solution is being discounted, since the trough at 50W appears substantial enough on satellite imagery to be able to turn Bill more to the northwest.
A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill even more to the northwest. Most of the models predict Bill will pass very close to Bermuda on Saturday as a result. The HWRF model predicts Bermuda will receive a direct hit at Category 4 strength. Until Bill interacts with the small trough at 50°W, it is too early to be confident of the potential threat to Bermuda. By Tuesday, we should have a much better idea of the threat. Likewise, I would like to see the UKMET model come around in line with the other models before dismissing the possible threat to the U.S. East Coast. It currently appears that Bill will miss the U.S. East Coast, but that a strike on the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia is possible.
I'll have an update Tuesday morning, or possibly this afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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You're correct, my friend...
Reflector site for those at work, which includes Weather456, daily update.
ANA
Bill
Claudette
Good morning SW. Do you have a webpage that explains about the steering layers you were talking about? Thanks.
WTNT33 KNHC 171432
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 AM AST MON AUG 17 2009
...BILL STRENGTHENING AS IT CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.2 WEST OR ABOUT 1080 MILES
...1735 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND BILL COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY
WEDNESDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145
MILES...230 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB...28.85 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.1N 45.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS
I think the northern COC took over. That would explain the improvement and the burst of convection just SE of PR.
You guys talking to me?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annular_hurricane
Yes that's it. Thanks. True, because Wilma had a large eye over FL. but was not annular.
I agree. She is putting up some impressive wind speed numbers from Nexrad, also.
If Bill is to begin being pulled NW, I have to believe Ana will experience some of the same thing. If PR doesn't kill her, she could pop out in the northern Mona Passage and ride the northern coast of the DR. As shown in one of the early COD Miami could be a potential bullseye still.
Claudette is in its death-throes, Ana is going to run into a mountain.
Bill is all we got now!
Because you keep telling people it is...and it isn't...lol
Morning Floodman,..seems the Atlantic has awakened with a Roar..
low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill even more to the northwest.
...Monday morning before coffee?
have i not used or looked at this map much over the last couple of years...have they always put an m for major on the 5 day cone...or is that recently something new?
That is what is being discussed atm
Thanks for the excellent images!
BTW, I'm at: 44° 28′ 53″ N, 72° 57′ 54″ W
I fell horrible today due to laying awake in my bed 'til 3am.
Agree with that. Southern square over Hispaniola and on to Cuba. North maybe some of both but be close.
NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.2 WEST OR ABOUT 1080 MILES
...1735 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
Wouldn't you know it...it's moving WNW.
AMEN!
I think the northern one is getting stronger and will become dominant, while the southern one will run into land and die a slow death.
She's a fighter though, she should of died yesterday. I'm surprised it has hung on. If she hangs on today, she could survive.
Based on local Nexrad, that doesn't seem apparent to me.
annular hurricanes are major canes that keep their strength for days on end. this just became a hurricane and doesn't even have an eye that is visible on IR imagery.
A small scale Fujiwhara type effect might be happening.
On satellite he appears to be following the NHC forecast line, so all is good so far.
The northern on eis running into Puerto Rico right now
I think Ana is a done deal for the next 3 days or so.
Current radar gives me the impression that the system is nearly an open wave with several regions of enhanced vorticity along the wave axis.
Trades are simply too strong and the system is too small and weak to withstand it.
He is wrong, there are 2 COC's with the northern one probably becoming the dominant one.
Bill's NHC advisory came out very early, at 10:31
Viewing: 101 - 151
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