Claudette hits Florida; Ana approaches Puerto RIco; Bill becomes our first hurricane
Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall at about 1:15 am EDT near the eastern end of Santa Rosa Island, just southeast of Fort Walton Beach in Florida. Claudette's top winds were around 50 mph. A Personal Weather Station in Eastpoint, FL recorded sustained winds of 49 mph, gusting to 66 mph last night. So far, the rain from Claudette has had a tough time penetrating inland (Figure 2). Heavy rains of 3 - 4 inches have been confined to a narrow strip of coast, and Claudette is unlikely to cause any major flooding. Apalachicola received just over 4 inches of rain so far from Claudette. Radar animations out of the Florida Panhandle show that heavy rains continue along the coast in association with a main spiral band of Claudette, and these rains will gradually subside today.
Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Claudette as it approached landfall just southeast of Fort Walton Beach shortly after midnight on 8/17/09.
The tropics featured a rare triple threat the past two days--simultaneous named storms beginning with the letters A, B, and C. The last time this occurred was in the slow-starting 1984 hurricane season, when Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cesar were all active on September 1. This year's A, B, and C storms all got their names in just a 33 hour span. This is not a record, since in 1995, three tropical storms--Humberto, Iris, and Jerry--got their names in a 27-hour span (thanks to NOAA's Ryan Sharp for looking up this stat).
Figure 2. Total precipitation estimated by radar for Claudette, as of 3:28pm EDT 8/17/09.
Ana not dead yet
Tropical Depression Ana continues to cling to life, and is now approaching landfall in Puerto Rico. Radar animations from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar show a surface circulation just southeast of the island, with some low-level spiral banding trying to develop to the south. Recent satellite images also show a rejuvenation of the heavy thunderstorm activity near Ana's center, as the storm regroups from being nearly torn apart yesterday. Ana has already dumped up to 4 inches of rain along the north coast of Puerto Rico, according to radar-estimates.
It is unlikely that Ana will survive past today, however, since the storm will move over both Puerto Rico and the rugged terrain of Hispaniola. The high mountains of these islands should act to disrupt the relatively small and fragile circulation of Ana. None of the computer models foresee that Ana will survive passage over Hispaniola. The Dominican Republic can expect 3 - 6 inches of rain from Ana, and Haiti can expect 1 - 3 inches.
Figure 3. Total precipitation estimated by radar from Ana for Puerto Rico.
Bill becomes the first Atlantic hurricane of 2009
Hurricane Bill continues to gather strength, and is now the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. An eye has appeared on visible and infrared satellite imagery, and Bill is displaying an impressive symmetry, with plenty of low-level spiral banding.
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low range through Wednesday. With Sea Surface Temperatures only 27°C today, substantial intensification may not occur until Tuesday and Wednesday, when SSTs warm to 28 - 29°C and ocean heat content sharply increases. By Thursday, Bill is expected to leave the favorable upper-level wind environment it currently finds itself in, and moderate shear of 15 - 20 knots may limit further intensification.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is a modest trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere near 50°W longitude, that Bill is currently approaching. All of the computer models except the UKMET predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn Bill more to the northwest so that the hurricane misses the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET predicts the trough will not affect Bill much, and that the hurricane will pass through or just north of the islands on Thursday. For now, the UKMET solution is being discounted, since the trough at 50W appears substantial enough on satellite imagery to be able to turn Bill more to the northwest.
A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill even more to the northwest. Most of the models predict Bill will pass very close to Bermuda on Saturday as a result. The HWRF model predicts Bermuda will receive a direct hit at Category 4 strength. Until Bill interacts with the small trough at 50°W, it is too early to be confident of the potential threat to Bermuda. By Tuesday, we should have a much better idea of the threat. Likewise, I would like to see the UKMET model come around in line with the other models before dismissing the possible threat to the U.S. East Coast. It currently appears that Bill will miss the U.S. East Coast, but that a strike on the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia is possible.
I'll have an update Tuesday morning, or possibly this afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Oh was I suppose to be looking at that????
mmmmmmm
Taco :0)
7-Day Loop
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMPLY AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
BEYOND THAT TIME ALMOST ALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO
THE LEFT..."
Could someone explain the meaning of that?
Thanks.
As a man who appreciates an intelligent woman, I am hereby stating that those ladies are there for a reason, they look very 'articulate'...
;-)
maybe some snow in Miami for Christmas?
Bill is looking good and following the predicted path.
Shifted slightly to the left, 456.
LMAO.. Oh yes pls do cause Richard Simmons is such a hunk. ;)
Now im gonna get in trouble haha
Right now its not annular, annular hurricanes are axisymmetrical, and their CDO is a completely circular ring. you can clearly see that the CDO on bill is still a spiral and by no means is symmetrical
Itsa breezy in dat stuff,downdrafts,Updrafts..Saints Draft,,Dixie Draft.
I am not sure but if you look through this peep hole you might find out.
i believe still on its current track with no more N component to it (doubtful) it'll still skirt
halloween actually
If its the same system, ie never completely dissipated whether it degenerated back to an open wave or jst a remnant swirl of low level clouds, it keeps the same name. They should have done this with td10, which is what trned out to be Katrina. Instead they started a new system. Remember what Ivan did? It did a complete loop through the cons and still regenerated. They kept the name Ivan when it reformed into a TS.
Hey - worked for me with the whole weed wacker/lawn edger thing...
Now, that is out of order, Sir...
lol
you monitoring Bill?
And, do you think Ana could regenerate north of Hispaniola and Cuba (in the Bahamas)? I think there is a chance, it will be under warm waters, and in a conducive environment
I think the key is it was a named storm, ie. Ana and Ivan.....
are you looking forword too a 24hr ban ??
But, on the subject of looks, Bill (the cane), looks very impressive right now.
Is it my fertile imagination, or is his centre now below 15N, more like 14N???? Has he dipped??
Or are my eyes just strained?
Link
Gif loop is faster, but or lesser quality.
I'm just glad it's not blasting across the PR/DR as something organized which would only need to strengthen in Bahamian waters. Especially if it stays south, we might have a slight chance of an exit stage left.......
Sure, it is disorganized, sure it is not complete, sure the west/north winds just aren't there, but this place would be watching closely if this was 600 miles east of PR.
This static sat shot shows clearly Bill is around 14N???
http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/AtlanticSatellite.aspx
I am monitoring Bill as close as any storm since Omar and Dean. Still waiting on 50W.
As for Ana, she could regenerate anywhere where the pressure is lowest, that is, where instability is greatest. That could be over a hot spot or in heavy convection. So I'm still watching her but she deserved to be downgraded.
One of the best posts today....
86 knots? Ramping up now.
It was never at 15N its always been south of that
Put an end?? the Floricasters are pumped up the track moved west
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