Claudette hits Florida; Ana approaches Puerto RIco; Bill becomes our first hurricane
Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall at about 1:15 am EDT near the eastern end of Santa Rosa Island, just southeast of Fort Walton Beach in Florida. Claudette's top winds were around 50 mph. A Personal Weather Station in Eastpoint, FL recorded sustained winds of 49 mph, gusting to 66 mph last night. So far, the rain from Claudette has had a tough time penetrating inland (Figure 2). Heavy rains of 3 - 4 inches have been confined to a narrow strip of coast, and Claudette is unlikely to cause any major flooding. Apalachicola received just over 4 inches of rain so far from Claudette. Radar animations out of the Florida Panhandle show that heavy rains continue along the coast in association with a main spiral band of Claudette, and these rains will gradually subside today.
Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Claudette as it approached landfall just southeast of Fort Walton Beach shortly after midnight on 8/17/09.
The tropics featured a rare triple threat the past two days--simultaneous named storms beginning with the letters A, B, and C. The last time this occurred was in the slow-starting 1984 hurricane season, when Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cesar were all active on September 1. This year's A, B, and C storms all got their names in just a 33 hour span. This is not a record, since in 1995, three tropical storms--Humberto, Iris, and Jerry--got their names in a 27-hour span (thanks to NOAA's Ryan Sharp for looking up this stat).
Figure 2. Total precipitation estimated by radar for Claudette, as of 3:28pm EDT 8/17/09.
Ana not dead yet
Tropical Depression Ana continues to cling to life, and is now approaching landfall in Puerto Rico. Radar animations from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar show a surface circulation just southeast of the island, with some low-level spiral banding trying to develop to the south. Recent satellite images also show a rejuvenation of the heavy thunderstorm activity near Ana's center, as the storm regroups from being nearly torn apart yesterday. Ana has already dumped up to 4 inches of rain along the north coast of Puerto Rico, according to radar-estimates.
It is unlikely that Ana will survive past today, however, since the storm will move over both Puerto Rico and the rugged terrain of Hispaniola. The high mountains of these islands should act to disrupt the relatively small and fragile circulation of Ana. None of the computer models foresee that Ana will survive passage over Hispaniola. The Dominican Republic can expect 3 - 6 inches of rain from Ana, and Haiti can expect 1 - 3 inches.
Figure 3. Total precipitation estimated by radar from Ana for Puerto Rico.
Bill becomes the first Atlantic hurricane of 2009
Hurricane Bill continues to gather strength, and is now the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. An eye has appeared on visible and infrared satellite imagery, and Bill is displaying an impressive symmetry, with plenty of low-level spiral banding.
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low range through Wednesday. With Sea Surface Temperatures only 27°C today, substantial intensification may not occur until Tuesday and Wednesday, when SSTs warm to 28 - 29°C and ocean heat content sharply increases. By Thursday, Bill is expected to leave the favorable upper-level wind environment it currently finds itself in, and moderate shear of 15 - 20 knots may limit further intensification.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is a modest trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere near 50°W longitude, that Bill is currently approaching. All of the computer models except the UKMET predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn Bill more to the northwest so that the hurricane misses the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET predicts the trough will not affect Bill much, and that the hurricane will pass through or just north of the islands on Thursday. For now, the UKMET solution is being discounted, since the trough at 50W appears substantial enough on satellite imagery to be able to turn Bill more to the northwest.
A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill even more to the northwest. Most of the models predict Bill will pass very close to Bermuda on Saturday as a result. The HWRF model predicts Bermuda will receive a direct hit at Category 4 strength. Until Bill interacts with the small trough at 50°W, it is too early to be confident of the potential threat to Bermuda. By Tuesday, we should have a much better idea of the threat. Likewise, I would like to see the UKMET model come around in line with the other models before dismissing the possible threat to the U.S. East Coast. It currently appears that Bill will miss the U.S. East Coast, but that a strike on the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia is possible.
I'll have an update Tuesday morning, or possibly this afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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He is wrong, there are 2 COC's with the northern one probably becoming the dominant one.
Bill's NHC advisory came out very early, at 10:31
The Math
The distance between two points on the Earth Calculator
You could be right, in fact your conclusion has a higher chance of happening. Radar still shows me some cyclonic rotation though.
But PR is much smaller and less mountainous than the rugged Hispaniola, in which the southern COC will move over. That is why the northern one will likely become dominant, and if it does that could change the forecast dramatically.
ANA CONSIDERATIONS.
The WCI last night was still at 6, which is one above my "neutral" zone and still well above my favorable which starts at 2.5. You are seeing an example of what happens when this is high, as Ana is racing west.
However consider this. After fighting off 1,500 miles of dry air, with more thunderstorms this morning than yesterday when TPC still had it as a tropical storm, with it racing through Hispaniola, with negative tilt to the wave axis, much like Claudette, if this is over eastern Cuba or just north tomorrow after all that... why would you think that with it slowing, more moisture and a favorable outflow pattern waiting for it, it should not be forecasted to come back?
I made no mention of it yesterday, but I found it very curious that after downgrading this, TPC snuck in an intensification back to a storm before Hispaniola. Storms moving faster than 18 mph in the Caribbean don't intensify. (Old Aggie rule from the 60s that I overheard in A&M weather station in the summer of '63 and again '64 with Flora and Cleo... my dad was out there talking with a bunch of met students and I was in the teletype room listening.. Like most weather addicts, the only talk was about the weather.. or Aggie football, which quickly went back to the weather. Hey parents.. ever notice that your kids pick up more when you aren't talking to them than when you are (lol).
Of course, I was the exception... when my mom told me to eat... I did, and still do, even if it is that 400-calorie "sliver" of cheesecake.
Okay where was I... that's right, hyping Ana. Look, I am not trying to be Mr Contrary Curmudgeon here with TPC. I am simply pointing out that it's odd that a system that has arguable been an open wave since yesterday may be given up on later today, even has the overall pattern is starting to improve as shown my more extensive clouds and the negative tilt. Watch the ones with negative tilts... that is why Claudette had my fancy for so long and she didn't even get all the wave energy as part never made it through the WCI easterlies.
Okay.. back to whatever it was you were doing before you decided to click the button.
It kinda looks like Bill is starting a NW turn.
Wait, are you and drakoenG the same person?
Wow, after just a couple of days away from the blog the tropics go wild. Thanks to Dr Masters and StormW for their posts. After reading them I feel I'm up to date again.
One small question to StormW. Where do you get the steering forecasts from? I'm looking at the steering layers on the cimss website but as far as I have understood it, they only show the latest image but no forecasts. Is there a free website with steering forecasts or only one with subscription? Thank you very much in advance for you answer and thanks as well for the good job you do everyday.
Lastly, hello Floodman. Good to see you after a long time. Had a quiet season so far where you live, right? I hope it stays that way.
I agree. There is cyclonic turning evident on radar but no well-defined center of circulation.
I find it strange how some can argue that Ana is 'making a comeback' while in the same sentence talk about 'two centers of circulation'.
Typically, two centers of circulation for the same system would imply that it's not a tropical cyclone. They usually only have one center, if you know what I mean =)
The NHC and NWS get the data, just not the public at large. You can subscribe ($$) to some weather services to see the data, but again there are policies against sharing that data on open public forums.
I understand what you are saying.
I bet you couldn't wait for all this activity...haha
Windsat caught Ana this morning..."sharp" wave indeed...
I understand what he is saying as well, but if the northern one becomes dominant, Ana could make a comeback, IMO.
Well that answers my question. NOw I can lie happy here in PR while enjoying Ana =p
Agreed - weak systems can find ways to survive the mountains easier than strong systems, it seems.
Everything is going good apart from the everyday drama.
I couldn't wait to track all of this lol. The season started and it started with 3 systems. All with their own little story
For Steering layers,archived and Latest
Western North Atlantic
Layer Mean Wind Analyses
Any wind?
And I agree with him, it is a wave and has been.
I also agree that it may pull a Claudette when it gets in the GOM, which is definitely where it's heading...and with a cold front coming down...watch out northern GOM. Maybe Ah-nah is reborn.
Based upon your gut feeling?
every layer of the atmosphere is pushing BILL nearly directly west.. I am so confused..
Ive come to learn,from Observation and experience,it comes with Time,...that any CV vortex that survives,even partially intact,..can reinvigorate in the GOM Tub..during the Historically active period,as we are in now.
You make a valid point, however, some were not sold on her becoming an open wave yesterday, nor are some of us convinced she is an open wave right now. I don't believe she is making a come back, I believe she is fighting to stay alive as a storm, which she has done for 4 days now, despite having been written off by some many times.
It is very possible she could become a closed case open wave at any point. In the end, it doesn't really matter what she is right now, it is what she will do or not do later.
000
WTNT33 KNHC 171432
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 AM AST MON AUG 17 2009
...BILL STRENGTHENING AS IT CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.2 WEST OR ABOUT 1080 MILES
...1735 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND BILL COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY
WEDNESDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145
MILES...230 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB...28.85 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.1N 45.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS
Wow, i will be impressed if this really happens.
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