Claudette hits Florida; Ana approaches Puerto RIco; Bill becomes our first hurricane
Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall at about 1:15 am EDT near the eastern end of Santa Rosa Island, just southeast of Fort Walton Beach in Florida. Claudette's top winds were around 50 mph. A Personal Weather Station in Eastpoint, FL recorded sustained winds of 49 mph, gusting to 66 mph last night. So far, the rain from Claudette has had a tough time penetrating inland (Figure 2). Heavy rains of 3 - 4 inches have been confined to a narrow strip of coast, and Claudette is unlikely to cause any major flooding. Apalachicola received just over 4 inches of rain so far from Claudette. Radar animations out of the Florida Panhandle show that heavy rains continue along the coast in association with a main spiral band of Claudette, and these rains will gradually subside today.
Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Claudette as it approached landfall just southeast of Fort Walton Beach shortly after midnight on 8/17/09.
The tropics featured a rare triple threat the past two days--simultaneous named storms beginning with the letters A, B, and C. The last time this occurred was in the slow-starting 1984 hurricane season, when Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cesar were all active on September 1. This year's A, B, and C storms all got their names in just a 33 hour span. This is not a record, since in 1995, three tropical storms--Humberto, Iris, and Jerry--got their names in a 27-hour span (thanks to NOAA's Ryan Sharp for looking up this stat).
Figure 2. Total precipitation estimated by radar for Claudette, as of 3:28pm EDT 8/17/09.
Ana not dead yet
Tropical Depression Ana continues to cling to life, and is now approaching landfall in Puerto Rico. Radar animations from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar show a surface circulation just southeast of the island, with some low-level spiral banding trying to develop to the south. Recent satellite images also show a rejuvenation of the heavy thunderstorm activity near Ana's center, as the storm regroups from being nearly torn apart yesterday. Ana has already dumped up to 4 inches of rain along the north coast of Puerto Rico, according to radar-estimates.
It is unlikely that Ana will survive past today, however, since the storm will move over both Puerto Rico and the rugged terrain of Hispaniola. The high mountains of these islands should act to disrupt the relatively small and fragile circulation of Ana. None of the computer models foresee that Ana will survive passage over Hispaniola. The Dominican Republic can expect 3 - 6 inches of rain from Ana, and Haiti can expect 1 - 3 inches.
Figure 3. Total precipitation estimated by radar from Ana for Puerto Rico.
Bill becomes the first Atlantic hurricane of 2009
Hurricane Bill continues to gather strength, and is now the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. An eye has appeared on visible and infrared satellite imagery, and Bill is displaying an impressive symmetry, with plenty of low-level spiral banding.
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low range through Wednesday. With Sea Surface Temperatures only 27°C today, substantial intensification may not occur until Tuesday and Wednesday, when SSTs warm to 28 - 29°C and ocean heat content sharply increases. By Thursday, Bill is expected to leave the favorable upper-level wind environment it currently finds itself in, and moderate shear of 15 - 20 knots may limit further intensification.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is a modest trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere near 50°W longitude, that Bill is currently approaching. All of the computer models except the UKMET predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn Bill more to the northwest so that the hurricane misses the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET predicts the trough will not affect Bill much, and that the hurricane will pass through or just north of the islands on Thursday. For now, the UKMET solution is being discounted, since the trough at 50W appears substantial enough on satellite imagery to be able to turn Bill more to the northwest.
A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill even more to the northwest. Most of the models predict Bill will pass very close to Bermuda on Saturday as a result. The HWRF model predicts Bermuda will receive a direct hit at Category 4 strength. Until Bill interacts with the small trough at 50°W, it is too early to be confident of the potential threat to Bermuda. By Tuesday, we should have a much better idea of the threat. Likewise, I would like to see the UKMET model come around in line with the other models before dismissing the possible threat to the U.S. East Coast. It currently appears that Bill will miss the U.S. East Coast, but that a strike on the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia is possible.
I'll have an update Tuesday morning, or possibly this afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Thank God!!! The day has finally come
Maintained as a depression throughout the forecast period. If a new center does indeed form SE of PR, and moves over PR, it would currently appear it would track just to the north of Hispaniola, or graze Hispaniola. If it stays north of Hispaniola it is likely to regain Tropical Storm strength. NHC even says it:
" THIS IS...ADMITTEDLY...
SOMETHING OF A HEDGE BETWEEN TWO MORE LIKELY ALTERNATIVES...THAT OF
A TROPICAL STORM NORTH OF THE ISLANDS OR IMMINENT DISSIPATION."
Models at this point may not have been initialized correctly.....Hurricane Hunters will REALLY help determine what is going on with the so-called "circulation" SE of Puerto Rico. If they do indeed find a circulation there, NHC will probably need to make large changes in intensity and track forecast of Ana if that does indeed become true. JMO.
can I have a link to the satellite ur using, seems to be updating quicker
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
You see, Bill is slowing down, and it is going to the wnw these are signs that it is starting to turn. I doubt it will make landfall on the east coast or even effect it for that matter, but you can never be too careful, we just have to wait and see
When I woke up early this morning, I was wondering the same thing. I guess they took into account her previous reincarnations.
bouy is reading 998 and dropping fast.
When will they fly in there?
I was thinking about him the other day. He hasn't been around at all. Somethings up.
Just go to the directory,scroll down to a given name,and click on the entry,..if you get the message,you'll know.
He is still there.
The other trolls are still there too
Well, that ought to put to rest that you and he were one and the same! :)
I doubt it. Some people still want to cling to the possibility that it will slam into the east coast.
If it does, and it becomes the dominant circulation center then that will change things. One too many variables to play around with right now....until it establishes a proper center. I think if the mid-level circulation takes over, land interaction may well decrease and allow the system to organize properly.
good about time
erm, that would be somewhere in the East Atlantic north-west of Spain and west of France, if I'm not totally mistaken.
Did you mean 14.9 N 45.4 W?
Exactly.
Just looking at the historical charts and i see in 1893 a storm hit NYC where i am living currently....so Bill is a bit unnerving...does it look pretty certain the curve out to sea will be sharp or are we looking at a most gradual turn? Basically is the East Coast for the most part "out of the woods"? thanks to anyone who takes the time to answer =)
I think about 50% of the screen names on here are from about 10 IP addresses.
Nice radar loop of Ana. This shows hints of strong developing bands around the mid-level circulation.
There are some pretty big mountain in the DR.
It already has started turning back to the west-northwest, and will continue on this track through at least today.
The impressive for August trough will eventually turn the beast, but for now I think the model tracks are a bit far north.
I didn't know that was the same person.
I see that on 12z run Bill is more south than the 6z run
Can someone please refresh my memory as to which track model SHIPS intensity is based on? I seem to remember BAMD ... but often remember incorrectly :-)
Drak, I have all of the weather links for Google Earth, they still do the Hurricane hunter obs., right?
Quoting WeatherStudent:
Adult bloggers on here, a moment of miraculous rejoice, please. All South Florida children return back to school officially one week from today. Therefore, as a result of this futuristic outcome, all of the childish predicaments that are presently taking place on this blog, should hopefully all be but non-existent for the most part by then. I don't know about y'all, but I'll be anxiously looking forward to that day. My countdown clock clicker has already begun to click on away in anticipation to that exciting day arriving. But, unfortunately speaking, ladies and gentlemen, until then we'll just gonna have to grim and bare it and put up with it to the best of our capacities. Moreover, good morning everyone. How's our tropical trio during this morning? :)
Young man, you are not the solution. Truth is, you are part of the problem. Think about it, please. You see, trying to talk or write like an adult is presumptuous, when you don't behave like one. And I'm not suggesting you grow up; only that you write, and behave in an appropriate manner for a public blog where adults are present, and your personal reputation is at stake. Best wishes.
I can see why. Quite a flare up of convection regardless of structure. Hard to find a COC though.
Absolutely correct
ALL OF THE MAJOR MODELS WITH A DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH DEVELOPING BY
SUNDAY. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE TROUGH WILL DETERMINE IF THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MAKES IT OFF THE COAST OR STALLS OUT. THE LATEST GFS
SHOWS THE LATTER
Is this the same front they are talking about that is associated with Bill and with it stalling or not, will it play a factor in Bill turning more NW? Many thanks in advance!
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