Claudette hits Florida; Ana approaches Puerto RIco; Bill becomes our first hurricane
Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall at about 1:15 am EDT near the eastern end of Santa Rosa Island, just southeast of Fort Walton Beach in Florida. Claudette's top winds were around 50 mph. A Personal Weather Station in Eastpoint, FL recorded sustained winds of 49 mph, gusting to 66 mph last night. So far, the rain from Claudette has had a tough time penetrating inland (Figure 2). Heavy rains of 3 - 4 inches have been confined to a narrow strip of coast, and Claudette is unlikely to cause any major flooding. Apalachicola received just over 4 inches of rain so far from Claudette. Radar animations out of the Florida Panhandle show that heavy rains continue along the coast in association with a main spiral band of Claudette, and these rains will gradually subside today.
Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Claudette as it approached landfall just southeast of Fort Walton Beach shortly after midnight on 8/17/09.
The tropics featured a rare triple threat the past two days--simultaneous named storms beginning with the letters A, B, and C. The last time this occurred was in the slow-starting 1984 hurricane season, when Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cesar were all active on September 1. This year's A, B, and C storms all got their names in just a 33 hour span. This is not a record, since in 1995, three tropical storms--Humberto, Iris, and Jerry--got their names in a 27-hour span (thanks to NOAA's Ryan Sharp for looking up this stat).
Figure 2. Total precipitation estimated by radar for Claudette, as of 3:28pm EDT 8/17/09.
Ana not dead yet
Tropical Depression Ana continues to cling to life, and is now approaching landfall in Puerto Rico. Radar animations from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar show a surface circulation just southeast of the island, with some low-level spiral banding trying to develop to the south. Recent satellite images also show a rejuvenation of the heavy thunderstorm activity near Ana's center, as the storm regroups from being nearly torn apart yesterday. Ana has already dumped up to 4 inches of rain along the north coast of Puerto Rico, according to radar-estimates.
It is unlikely that Ana will survive past today, however, since the storm will move over both Puerto Rico and the rugged terrain of Hispaniola. The high mountains of these islands should act to disrupt the relatively small and fragile circulation of Ana. None of the computer models foresee that Ana will survive passage over Hispaniola. The Dominican Republic can expect 3 - 6 inches of rain from Ana, and Haiti can expect 1 - 3 inches.
Figure 3. Total precipitation estimated by radar from Ana for Puerto Rico.
Bill becomes the first Atlantic hurricane of 2009
Hurricane Bill continues to gather strength, and is now the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. An eye has appeared on visible and infrared satellite imagery, and Bill is displaying an impressive symmetry, with plenty of low-level spiral banding.
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low range through Wednesday. With Sea Surface Temperatures only 27°C today, substantial intensification may not occur until Tuesday and Wednesday, when SSTs warm to 28 - 29°C and ocean heat content sharply increases. By Thursday, Bill is expected to leave the favorable upper-level wind environment it currently finds itself in, and moderate shear of 15 - 20 knots may limit further intensification.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is a modest trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere near 50°W longitude, that Bill is currently approaching. All of the computer models except the UKMET predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn Bill more to the northwest so that the hurricane misses the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET predicts the trough will not affect Bill much, and that the hurricane will pass through or just north of the islands on Thursday. For now, the UKMET solution is being discounted, since the trough at 50W appears substantial enough on satellite imagery to be able to turn Bill more to the northwest.
A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill even more to the northwest. Most of the models predict Bill will pass very close to Bermuda on Saturday as a result. The HWRF model predicts Bermuda will receive a direct hit at Category 4 strength. Until Bill interacts with the small trough at 50°W, it is too early to be confident of the potential threat to Bermuda. By Tuesday, we should have a much better idea of the threat. Likewise, I would like to see the UKMET model come around in line with the other models before dismissing the possible threat to the U.S. East Coast. It currently appears that Bill will miss the U.S. East Coast, but that a strike on the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia is possible.
I'll have an update Tuesday morning, or possibly this afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I was going to log-off....but I'll call you crazy....lol....j/k
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time for this bandito to have a glass of milk and go to sleep.
So Bill will not be a fish if it hits Nova Scotia.......
As I stated prior. All go to your favorite satellite image, and witness the beginning of the eye of a powerful hurricane!
Nice analogy...but this storm is not going to hook!
Maybe the NHC is really where the experts hang!
And it's at 15N, as the NHC stated also... Lol
No you are wrong...my new fence and roof will be toast by the am...70mph gust, lightning...your typical run of the mill storms at Conchs house :-/
Not true for everyone at all. Many are responsible enough to realize the dangers involved to ALL in any possible path. When these say fish storm they mean just that, bypassing all inhabited areas. The difficulty is weeding through these people and the irresponsible people who discount others not from THEIR neighborhood. If Bill were to hit the Antilles I guarantee no one there would call it a fish storm.
Great Analysis thats exactly whats hapening right now, getting woried here in PR still bellow 15 and almost at 50w. GFS shows the this extact scenario for 96hrs of models runs before the storm even formed!, then jump into the more northerly track in agrement with the other models by the way was the last one to do it. August 20 2009 could be a Major hit here in PR the first in the last 70 years.
When is the data they collect included in the models...what time?? (I hope that makes sense, it is getting late)
HUH?
I disagree. A fish doesn't go on land. A fish storm is one that doesn't affect land, regardless of whether it's a populated area or not.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml
I totally agree, But it is still fun to read in this blog. For waht its worth I pay to read what people write here. There is a couple of people here that can give you pretty accurate info though...
But as you stated earlier...claudette and the stalled front may have put the turd in the punch...to the tune a a few hundred miles or so...others mentioned it last night as well, and timing may turn out to be the most important factor
I thought Hugo gave PR a major hit... That was only 20 years ago.
heheheh
With the earlier comment by a blogger that water temps off the NJ coast were 79 degrees, I wouldn't be so quick to assume that Bill could not arrive on the doorstep of New England or NE Canada as a hurricane. Especially since these high-latitude storms tend to be fast movers, like the 1938 storm of renown, Hurricane Bill at 40N is certainly not out of the realm of the possible. Go look it up - it's happened in the past.
Good night all.
lol you forgot
HUgo and Georges =P
Try reading and understanding the forecast before you start thinking its wrong.
If storm conditions are on land, then it's not a fish. It's also not an official landfall, and the NHC is recognizing & has begun addressing this "gray" area.
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