Claudette hits Florida; Ana approaches Puerto RIco; Bill becomes our first hurricane
Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall at about 1:15 am EDT near the eastern end of Santa Rosa Island, just southeast of Fort Walton Beach in Florida. Claudette's top winds were around 50 mph. A Personal Weather Station in Eastpoint, FL recorded sustained winds of 49 mph, gusting to 66 mph last night. So far, the rain from Claudette has had a tough time penetrating inland (Figure 2). Heavy rains of 3 - 4 inches have been confined to a narrow strip of coast, and Claudette is unlikely to cause any major flooding. Apalachicola received just over 4 inches of rain so far from Claudette. Radar animations out of the Florida Panhandle show that heavy rains continue along the coast in association with a main spiral band of Claudette, and these rains will gradually subside today.
Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Claudette as it approached landfall just southeast of Fort Walton Beach shortly after midnight on 8/17/09.
The tropics featured a rare triple threat the past two days--simultaneous named storms beginning with the letters A, B, and C. The last time this occurred was in the slow-starting 1984 hurricane season, when Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cesar were all active on September 1. This year's A, B, and C storms all got their names in just a 33 hour span. This is not a record, since in 1995, three tropical storms--Humberto, Iris, and Jerry--got their names in a 27-hour span (thanks to NOAA's Ryan Sharp for looking up this stat).
Figure 2. Total precipitation estimated by radar for Claudette, as of 3:28pm EDT 8/17/09.
Ana not dead yet
Tropical Depression Ana continues to cling to life, and is now approaching landfall in Puerto Rico. Radar animations from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar show a surface circulation just southeast of the island, with some low-level spiral banding trying to develop to the south. Recent satellite images also show a rejuvenation of the heavy thunderstorm activity near Ana's center, as the storm regroups from being nearly torn apart yesterday. Ana has already dumped up to 4 inches of rain along the north coast of Puerto Rico, according to radar-estimates.
It is unlikely that Ana will survive past today, however, since the storm will move over both Puerto Rico and the rugged terrain of Hispaniola. The high mountains of these islands should act to disrupt the relatively small and fragile circulation of Ana. None of the computer models foresee that Ana will survive passage over Hispaniola. The Dominican Republic can expect 3 - 6 inches of rain from Ana, and Haiti can expect 1 - 3 inches.
Figure 3. Total precipitation estimated by radar from Ana for Puerto Rico.
Bill becomes the first Atlantic hurricane of 2009
Hurricane Bill continues to gather strength, and is now the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. An eye has appeared on visible and infrared satellite imagery, and Bill is displaying an impressive symmetry, with plenty of low-level spiral banding.
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low range through Wednesday. With Sea Surface Temperatures only 27°C today, substantial intensification may not occur until Tuesday and Wednesday, when SSTs warm to 28 - 29°C and ocean heat content sharply increases. By Thursday, Bill is expected to leave the favorable upper-level wind environment it currently finds itself in, and moderate shear of 15 - 20 knots may limit further intensification.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is a modest trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere near 50°W longitude, that Bill is currently approaching. All of the computer models except the UKMET predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn Bill more to the northwest so that the hurricane misses the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET predicts the trough will not affect Bill much, and that the hurricane will pass through or just north of the islands on Thursday. For now, the UKMET solution is being discounted, since the trough at 50W appears substantial enough on satellite imagery to be able to turn Bill more to the northwest.
A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill even more to the northwest. Most of the models predict Bill will pass very close to Bermuda on Saturday as a result. The HWRF model predicts Bermuda will receive a direct hit at Category 4 strength. Until Bill interacts with the small trough at 50°W, it is too early to be confident of the potential threat to Bermuda. By Tuesday, we should have a much better idea of the threat. Likewise, I would like to see the UKMET model come around in line with the other models before dismissing the possible threat to the U.S. East Coast. It currently appears that Bill will miss the U.S. East Coast, but that a strike on the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia is possible.
I'll have an update Tuesday morning, or possibly this afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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after the HH's have flown into Bill.
Sully already has an update on the NE Weather Blog:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/sullivanweather/show.html
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 AUG 2009 Time : 111500 UTC
Lat : 15:42:39 N Lon : 50:03:29 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 950.6mb/115.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.0 6.1 6.3
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.6mb
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 33 km
Center Temp : +4.9C Cloud Region Temp : -67.0C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 2.2T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
****************************************************
Skipping Cat 3???
Hi Canes, notice the outlier is gone at 2 a.m., too.
Morning all!
It seems that off and on Bill has struggled with dry air. So far it's been able to hold its own though.
Ike - yes - particularly the moisture on the southern arm of Haiti. It will be an "area of interest" tonight, but figure it's not very probable for development at this point.
I know Bill is the major story in the town but no one is talking about the new wave that just emerged off Africa - good convection and turning around 10N..
What say you guys...!?
This must be one very wide trough the modellers are expecting. I'd have thought these tracks would be going right through the Bermuda High, which, of course, is impossible.
A nice flair up of storms north of DR. Florida will get some good rain out of the mess.
Connie go here and scroll down and you can always see the current forecast tracks as this stays current 24hrs a day.
Actually the info the HH receive takes about 2 runs in the computer to get the correct tracking!
England? By the time thet make it across to the U.K. they're never anything more than a warm breeze.
that is an old image from last night.
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW SATURDAY AND SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. TROPICAL CYCLONE BILL WILL MEANWHILE
PASS WELL EAST OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.-- End Changed Discussion --
HURRICANE BILL IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL E OF THE U.S. EAST COAST
SAT INTO SUN. IT NOW APPEARS LIKELY THAT A SIGNIFICANT LONG PERIOD
SWELL WILL IMPACT THE REGION FROM BILL LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. A MUCH SMALLER SE SWELL FROM ANA IS ALSO DUE TOMORROW NITE
THROUGH THU. THE RIP CURRENT THREAT WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED MUCH OF
THE LATE WEEK THROUGH WEEKEND TIMEFRAME AS A RESULT...AND WE HAVE
COORDINATED WITH NHC TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE PUBLIC ADVISORY FOR
BILL IN THE COMING DAYS. WE ALSO WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE
HWO. OTHERWISE...NO DIRECT IMPACTS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED FROM
BILL.-- End Changed Discussion --
MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --AS OF 225 AM TUESDAY...SOME GRADUAL CHANGES IN THE MARINE FCST
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF VARIABLE LIGHT
WINDS...SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO GRADIENT BETWEEN SHARPENING TROUGH
INLAND AND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE. WAVES THIS MORNING ARE GENERALLY
AROUND 2 FEET WITH 8 SECOND PERIODS...WHICH AGAIN TODAY IS WELL
INITIALIZED BY LOCAL SWAN MODEL AND FOLLOWED FOR THE SHORT TERM.
BY LATE TOMORROW...WE START TO SEE THE FIRST SIGNS OF LONG PERIOD
SWELLS FROM THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM ANA IN SOME 10 TO 12
SECOND SWELLS. BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...SWELL ENERGY
FROM STRENGTHENING HURRICANE BILL MAKES ITS PRESENCE FELT WITH
PERIODS OF 16 TO 18 SECONDS. COMBINED SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO
SCA CRITERIA BY EARLY SATURDAY. WILL BE CONSERVATIVE WITH SEAS FOR
NOW...CAPPING SEAS AT 7 FEET WHICH IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO LATEST
WAVEWATCH NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.
GIVEN MINIMAL SWELL AND LIGHT WINDS...ANOTHER LOW RIP CURRENT
THREAT DAY FOR TODAY...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE SEVERAL DAYS OF
ELEVATED RIP CURRENT THREAT GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SWELL ENERGY
AND HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL TIDES.-- End Changed Discussion --
well I still dont think the NHC is in agreement with the track of Bill just yet
All track guidance indicates that Bill should turn
northward in response to the troughs...but there is some notable
spread in where and when. The ECMWF...GFS...GFS ensemble mean...
and the BAM models turn Bill northward between 62w-65w in response
to the first two troughs. The remainder of the track guidance
calls for the northward turn between 65w-70w...due to less response
to the first two troughs and the eventual effect of the third
trough.
I thought they were going there today for the first time.
Based on what are you making that comment? I am curious as to where you get that data. If you are right this could be bad news don't you think? I believe a wobble which makes it look like moving westward is more of a possibility, but overall NHC's track is right on the money. They are getting really good at this believe me.
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 950.5mb/115.0kt
Sorry about that....need another cup of coffee!
Thanks TS!...what a way to start my day!..lol
thank you, he has been west casting for days.!!
Here you go my friend NAM Model LINK
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 AUG 2009 Time : 114500 UTC
Lat : 15:50:52 N Lon : 50:16:30 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 950.5mb/115.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.0 6.1 6.2
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.5mb
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 32 km
Center Temp : +7.7C Cloud Region Temp : -65.5C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 2.2T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
Easy to see with the eye in plain-view.
StormW a classic buzzsaw.......WOW! What a creature of Mother Nature.
Viewing: 4001 - 4051
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