Claudette hits Florida; Ana approaches Puerto RIco; Bill becomes our first hurricane
Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall at about 1:15 am EDT near the eastern end of Santa Rosa Island, just southeast of Fort Walton Beach in Florida. Claudette's top winds were around 50 mph. A Personal Weather Station in Eastpoint, FL recorded sustained winds of 49 mph, gusting to 66 mph last night. So far, the rain from Claudette has had a tough time penetrating inland (Figure 2). Heavy rains of 3 - 4 inches have been confined to a narrow strip of coast, and Claudette is unlikely to cause any major flooding. Apalachicola received just over 4 inches of rain so far from Claudette. Radar animations out of the Florida Panhandle show that heavy rains continue along the coast in association with a main spiral band of Claudette, and these rains will gradually subside today.
Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Claudette as it approached landfall just southeast of Fort Walton Beach shortly after midnight on 8/17/09.
The tropics featured a rare triple threat the past two days--simultaneous named storms beginning with the letters A, B, and C. The last time this occurred was in the slow-starting 1984 hurricane season, when Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cesar were all active on September 1. This year's A, B, and C storms all got their names in just a 33 hour span. This is not a record, since in 1995, three tropical storms--Humberto, Iris, and Jerry--got their names in a 27-hour span (thanks to NOAA's Ryan Sharp for looking up this stat).
Figure 2. Total precipitation estimated by radar for Claudette, as of 3:28pm EDT 8/17/09.
Ana not dead yet
Tropical Depression Ana continues to cling to life, and is now approaching landfall in Puerto Rico. Radar animations from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar show a surface circulation just southeast of the island, with some low-level spiral banding trying to develop to the south. Recent satellite images also show a rejuvenation of the heavy thunderstorm activity near Ana's center, as the storm regroups from being nearly torn apart yesterday. Ana has already dumped up to 4 inches of rain along the north coast of Puerto Rico, according to radar-estimates.
It is unlikely that Ana will survive past today, however, since the storm will move over both Puerto Rico and the rugged terrain of Hispaniola. The high mountains of these islands should act to disrupt the relatively small and fragile circulation of Ana. None of the computer models foresee that Ana will survive passage over Hispaniola. The Dominican Republic can expect 3 - 6 inches of rain from Ana, and Haiti can expect 1 - 3 inches.
Figure 3. Total precipitation estimated by radar from Ana for Puerto Rico.
Bill becomes the first Atlantic hurricane of 2009
Hurricane Bill continues to gather strength, and is now the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. An eye has appeared on visible and infrared satellite imagery, and Bill is displaying an impressive symmetry, with plenty of low-level spiral banding.
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low range through Wednesday. With Sea Surface Temperatures only 27°C today, substantial intensification may not occur until Tuesday and Wednesday, when SSTs warm to 28 - 29°C and ocean heat content sharply increases. By Thursday, Bill is expected to leave the favorable upper-level wind environment it currently finds itself in, and moderate shear of 15 - 20 knots may limit further intensification.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is a modest trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere near 50°W longitude, that Bill is currently approaching. All of the computer models except the UKMET predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn Bill more to the northwest so that the hurricane misses the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET predicts the trough will not affect Bill much, and that the hurricane will pass through or just north of the islands on Thursday. For now, the UKMET solution is being discounted, since the trough at 50W appears substantial enough on satellite imagery to be able to turn Bill more to the northwest.
A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill even more to the northwest. Most of the models predict Bill will pass very close to Bermuda on Saturday as a result. The HWRF model predicts Bermuda will receive a direct hit at Category 4 strength. Until Bill interacts with the small trough at 50°W, it is too early to be confident of the potential threat to Bermuda. By Tuesday, we should have a much better idea of the threat. Likewise, I would like to see the UKMET model come around in line with the other models before dismissing the possible threat to the U.S. East Coast. It currently appears that Bill will miss the U.S. East Coast, but that a strike on the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia is possible.
I'll have an update Tuesday morning, or possibly this afternoon.
Jeff Masters
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3047. LongGlassTube 10:17 PM EDT on August 17, 2009
Back in the days of paper charts we would do our own XTRAP using a ruler to pencil in a dotted line of travel. Generally speaking once the XTRAP is North of your position you are in the clear. If XTRAP is on you just prior to landfall well, there you are.
that is UTC time.
9:09 would be 5:09am EDT.
I'm not going to say best, but U. of Oklahoma in Norman is good.
seems your correct, funny how one's perception was it was an ex cane. Then again 1987 was a long time ago :).
It sure does. I won't be suprised if the NHC issues a Hurricane Watch, or Warning soon.
university of oklahoma they have the storm prediction center there. University of Michigan would be my last pick.
I hear Thunder & see the lightning in the distant NE but so far no rain the remnants of Ana is approaching us.
It's not just the winds... it's the rain. Omar passed well north of us last year and still caused widespread flooding here with his feeder bands. There was no direct hit on St. Kitts & Nevis either but I'm sure Weather456 can tell you how Omar still caused serious issues there, including destroying the Four Seasons resort on Nevis which has still not recovered.
Local mets are sayign South Florida then into the gulf up to the big bend
First of all, welcome to wunderground, I hope you learn alot from being on this site. Second of all, let me assure you that the NHC (National Hurricane center's) track will recurve it out to sea so there's nothing to worry about unless you are boating out there. The only impact from bill to the US is some high waves. It will affect Bermuda though.
Madrid.
You need only learn two words: sun and hot.
;-)
Just in case the post was not read :-)
Thanks I wasn't sure, it was explained to be the other day, I just got confused then, 4 hours ago kinda recent still.
Went back and read them. Poor fellow, Michael Fish. I have been to your town. Beautiful place. If I remember correctly there were the ruins of an old castle which we visited. Narrow streets, but quite interesting architecture. Lucky you were so far north of the storms. As I remember, they did quite a bit of damage.
Remnants are supposed to arrive tommorow into Thursday
You're right, he has been moving wwnw, but just lately, the northwards component has become greater. That might be due to a weakness in the high pressure to the north, just east of 50W.
It's normal for hurricanes to move north. There was a good technical explanation for this around page 26 or thereabouts. However, the Bermuda High, when it expands, is an impassable barrier which steers them to the east.
The forecast is for a low pressure area to come down the east coast. If it does and the timing is right, it'll suck Bill up north towards Bermuda and Nova Scotia.
Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands , BBL gotta run into town.
Thank you tropic freak it's a very interesting site for sure. What is the difference between the verification models and the other models if you don't mind me asking. Thanks!
hhhmmm, I could of sworn our local meteorologist said weather turning this afternoon and tomorrow. Should be better Thursday...but then again, 1st cup o' coffee had not been inhaled then!!
I am in Coral Ridge. Seem the wind is picking up a bit. Very breezy by me.
Omar caused flooding on Montserrat with the feeder bands. The valley I need to cross was flooded for 2 days..was stuck at home for that time.
This track is much more LAND BOUND!
A wish that the storm goes out to sea?
But actualy every storm seem to be somekind of fish storm, because it alters the oxygen level in the water - a threat to marine life.
Wiki
Hi
It's raining (not hard) up at Northwest point. No thunder and lightning though and it is very still.
Read back 100 posts or so before you asked the question. It was fairly thoroughly addressed.
It happens to me, too.
thats because of the pressure differential. it will be breezy, however the remnants should not arrive till tommorow morning(late tonight) into Thursday. I am in Miami
8/18/08 on this date last year FAY was sitting at 23.6N 81.5W as a tropical storm with 50K winds, not far from the remnants of ANNA. Over the next couple days we got 21 inches of rain here in E. Central FL. Just reminiscing...
Yeah, I accidentally clicked on the post comment button and it cut off so I modified it be clicking on the modify comment button.
That question I can answer.
One that stays out in the open water and doesn't hit any land. Basically it is only a problem for ships at sea.
Bill! Bill! I mean Bill!!!
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