Bill intensifies to Category 4; globe has 5th warmest July on record
Category 4 Hurricane Bill is now the the fourth strongest tropical cyclone to appear on the planet so far this year, and may grow even stronger. Visible and infrared satellite imagery continue to show an impressive, well-organized, hurricane, with plenty of low-level spiral banding and upper-level outflow well-established on all sides except the west. On Bill's west side, upper-level winds from the west are creating a modest 10 knots of wind shear, which is giving the hurricane a bit of a squashed appearance there.
Wind shear is forecast to remain low to moderate, 5-15 knots, for the next four days. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) will rise steadily from 28.5°C today to 29°C on Friday. Total ocean heat content is at a maximum today, and will gradually decline over the next four days. Bill should be able to take advantage of these favorable conditions a remain a major hurricane the next three days.
Figure 1. Visible satellite image from NASA's Aqua spacecraft at 12:40pm EDT Tuesday August 18, 2009. Image credit: NASA GSFC.
Water vapor satellite loops show a small "short-wave" trough of low pressure to the north-northwest of Bill, and this trough has turned Bill on a more northwesterly track over the past two days. Bill will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the main impact of the hurricane on these islands will be high waves. The short wave trough (so called because it has a relatively small amplitude and wavelength) is not strong enough to turn Bill due north, and Bill is also expected to miss Bermuda. High waves and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph are the worst that Bermuda is likely to get from Bill.
Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Bill's eye zoomed in, taken from NASA's Aqua spacecraft at 12:40pm EDT Tuesday August 18, 2009. Image credit: NASA GSFC.
An unusually strong "long wave" trough of low pressure (called long wave because of its large amplitude and wavelength) is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week. This trough will turn Bill to the north, and also bring high levels of wind shear in the 40 - 65 knot range on Sunday. Exactly where this turn occurs is still not clear. The models continue to be in two camps: an eastern camp (GFS, GFDL, HWRF, and ECMWF) that takes Bill 300 - 500 miles east of Cape Cod, and a more western camp (NOGAPS, UKMET) that bring Bill within 150 - 200 miles of Cape Cod. Both sets of models bring Bill ashore over the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia. Bill will be weakening rapidly as it makes landfall, and is likely to be a Category 1 hurricane if it hits Nova Scotia, or strong tropical storm if it hits Newfoundland.
Bill's big waves
Large swells from Bill will begin impacting the U.S. East coast from Florida to Maine beginning Friday night or Saturday morning. Seas will build to 5 - 10 feet in the offshore waters from central Florida northwards to South Carolina, and to 10 - 15 feet from North Carolina to Cape Cod. Near shore, waves will be about 40% less. This will cause a significant coastal erosion event along some portions of the coast. The latest run of the NOAA Wavewatch III model suggests that significant wave heights near Bill's center will reach 50 feet on Sunday. Since maximum wave height is typically about a factor of 1.9 greater than the significant wave height (which is the average trough-to-crest height of the top 1/3 largest waves), a few huge waves near Bill's center may reach 95 feet high.
Possible impacts to New England
The current set of computer model runs predicts that the center of Bill will pass Cape Cod, Massachusetts Sunday afternoon or evening. Tropical storm-force sustained winds of 39 mph or greater currently extend out 185 miles to the west of Bill's center, so that if Bill maintains its current wind distribution, Cape Cod could see sustained winds of about 40 mph Sunday night if the models predicting a more westerly path are correct. However, Bill will not keep this same radius of winds. The hurricane will weaken considerably beginning Sunday morning, once the storm gets caught up in the approaching long wave trough. High wind shear of 40 - 65 knots due to strong southwesterly winds aloft will act to compress the hurricane in the east-west direction, keeping the hurricane's strongest winds away from Cape Cod. The highest winds are likely to be no more than 30 mph on Cape Cod from Bill, if the storm follows the track of the western camp of models nearest to the Massachusetts. A few rain squalls may affect coastal Massachusetts, but the main impact of Bill on New England is likely to be coastal erosion from high waves.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The remains of Tropical Storm Ana are bringing scattered heavy rain showers to the Bahamas and Florida today. The remains are disorganized, and are not likely to re-develop. The only model calling for a new tropical cyclone to develop in the Atlantic over the next seven days is the GFS model, which predicts development off the coast of Africa about 7 days from now.
Fifth warmest July on record globally; a cold July in the U.S.
The globe recorded its fifth warmest July since record keeping began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. NOAA rated the period January - July 2009 as the sixth warmest such period on record. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated July 2009 as the 2nd warmest July on record, behind July of 1998. For the second month in a row, global ocean Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in July were the warmest on record, 0.59°C (1.06°F) above the 20th century average. This broke the previous July record set in 1998. The record July SSTs were due in part to an ongoing El Niño event in the Eastern Pacific, which has substantially warmed a large stretch of the tropical Eastern Pacific Ocean. As El Niño conditions mature during the coming months, near-record global ocean and land temperatures will probably continue. Now that El Niño conditions have been well-established for three months, the atmosphere has begun to heat up in response. It typically takes up to seven months for the atmosphere to heat up in response to ocean heating from an El Niño. This may explain why June of 2009, which independent assessments by NOAA, NASA, and the UK Hadley center agreed was the 2nd or 3rd warmest June on record at the surface, recorded only average satellite-measured temperatures in the lower atmosphere. In contrast, the July satellite-measured temperatures in the lower atmosphere were the 2nd or 3rd warmest on record, in agreement with the assessments that surface temperatures were the 2nd to 5th warmest on record.
Figure 3. Departure of temperature from average for July 2009. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
A cold July for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., the average July temperature of 23.1°C (73.5°F) was the coolest since 1994, and July temperatures were the 27th coolest in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. Ohio, Illinois, Indiana, Pennsylvania, Iowa, and West Virginia experienced their coolest ever July. Kentucky, Missouri, Michigan, and Wisconsin recorded their second coolest July in history. A strong trough of low pressure parked itself over the eastern portion of the U.S. in July, funneling down plenty of cold air from Canada. In the western U.S., a ridge of high pressure dominated, bringing unusually hot conditions. Arizona recorded its 3rd warmest July on record, and Seattle, Washington recorded its hottest day in history on July 28, notching a 103°F reading. This was 3°F above the previous record set in 1994.
U.S. precipitation was near average in July, with the month ranking 40th wettest in the 115-year record. U.S. tornado activity was above average in July, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. However, no tornado deaths occurred in July.
At the end of July, 14% of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought. This is a drop from the 19% figure observed at the beginning of the year. These extreme drought regions were exclusively in South and Central Texas.
I'll have an update Thursday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Great graphic.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
751 AM EDT THU AUG 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-
STATE AREA TODAY. AN UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL PUSH A
STRONG FRONT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MOST IMPACTS OF HURRICANE BILL TO OUR
EAST. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRIER BEHIND THE UPPER
TROUGH.
I remember when I sent my wife a pic of the first track showing Jeane looping back to hit us. She said "Not very f'in funny. How did I make that pic?" I told her it was really the official track. A few days later 30% more of my shingles were all over the yard ....
You should be fine.
I think I will take a drive to the beach this weekend to see these huge waves.
With Bill going WNW today i dont think you will.
Wasn't Jeanne thew one that did all kinds of loops and turn before it move ashore?
I kind of feel a little bit relieved, but I have till later today to cancel my trip so I will check back with you guys later to get an update..till then, thanks.
appreciate your comments.
I am watching it. I am just not going to get all panicky just yet. Things could change but the models seem to be the same they were 3 days ago. Pretty consistent.
I disagree,every day the models have taken Bill a little closer to the Eastcoast.
If this lasts one more day there is something going to be hit.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
605 AM EDT THU AUG 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
VERY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE COMBINES WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES TO YIELD A PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING MORE
NUMEROUS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE PROJECTED TRACK OF HURRICANE BILL
STILL APPEARS TO BE WELL EAST OF NANTUCKET SOMETIME SUNDAY. ITS MAIN
EFFECTS ON SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE IN THE FORM OF HIGH SURF AND
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TO OCEAN BEACHES BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
"COLD FRONT IS SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. EXPECT THE
THREAT FOR SOME ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS MOVES IN. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RUN
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR BOTH THE DAYTIME AND NIGHTTIME PERIODS. SOME
LOCATIONS MAY SEE UPPER 50S ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING."
glad you came in
Very little, still going to make landfall/skirt eastern nova scotia (where i live) :(
You'd never know it here in south-central TX! We're looking at triple digits, still - broke our record, by over 10 days, for most # of days in the triple digits. It's freakin' miserable!
Red = 06Z
Blue = 00Z
Green = 18Z
Brown = 12Z
True. Looked at San Antonio's forecast....upper 90's to near 100 the next 7 days. Most of the cooler air will be east of there.
Calling for mid 60's here in the inland Florida panhandle for Saturday and Sunday night. High's near 90.
Dont know if this comes out and its really history now, but it shows the heavy seas outside my house yesterday on the Atlantic coast of Dominica with Bill over 700 miles away.
Regardless, the right front quad will be *well* offshore, along with the most interesting weather.
LOL wrong, it'll take longer to pump out the subway system, and the salt water will eat up the concrete, which will have to totally rebuilt!
While Bill is the only game in town there is an area of interest near 11N 23W in the form of a weak surface low that is starting to develop convection. Something else to keep an eye on IMO
You can't link photos from your local machine's hard drive and expect people on the internet to see it. You'll need to post the photo to your WU photo account.
Patraps blog can provide valuable information and also the link on the main tropical page on WU for OneStorm, which is a very helpful guided helper for you to create a complete plan including important check lists and logged contact info and action plan etc. It walks you through the whole process and you will have a better comfort level with your situation with the information provided. I did anyhow. You will need to register to use the site.
www.onestorm.org
http://www.onestorm.org/Default.aspx?ReturnUrl=/OnePlan/
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