Danny weakens; not likely to become a hurricane
Tropical Storm Danny has weakened. Data from the Hurricane Hunters between 2 - 3 pm EDT showed top winds of just 40 - 45 mph at the surface. Satellite intensity estimates of Danny's strength have also declined since this morning. Danny's satellite appearance is pretty unconventional, and the storm doesn't look much like a tropical cyclone. The low level circulation center is exposed to view, with the heaviest thunderstorms lying several hundred miles east of the center. The center has remained nearly stationary the past four hours, and has grown less distinct. It is possible that a new center will form up to 100 miles to the east, in the region with the heaviest thunderstorm activity. Danny has already undergone several center relocations over the past 12 hours.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image at 3:17 pm EDT of Danny, showing the exposed swirl of clouds where Danny's center is, well displaced from the heaviest thunderstorm activity to the east.
The forecast for Danny
There's not much new to report from the latest set of 12Z model runs for Danny. The models have pretty much maintained their previous forecast, calling for Danny to intensify to a Category 1 hurricane by Saturday morning, and pass close to both Cape Hatteras, NC, and Cape Cod, MA. Given that the models did not correctly forecast Danny's current struggles, I believe it is unlikely that Danny will attain hurricane strength. Dry air from the upper-level low that has been keeping Danny disorganized continues to be a problem for the storm, despite the presence of moderate wind shear of 10 - 15 knots. Danny only has about 24 hours of relatively favorable wind shear left, and that is probably not enough time to intensify into a hurricane. By Friday night, a trough of low pressure will approach the U.S. East Coast and bring high wind shear of 20 - 35 knots. Danny will be close enough to this trough that the trough may be able to feed energy to Danny as the trough converts Danny to an extratropical storm. As a result, Danny may not weaken only slowly. A landfall in Cape Cod, eastern Maine, or Nova Scotia as a tropical storm with 45 - 55 mph winds is a reasonable forecast.
Figure 3. Tropical wave 94L off the coast of Africa.
Invest 94L off the coast of Africa
A well-organized tropical wave (94L) lies a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands, near the coast of Africa. This disturbance continues to look more organized on satellite imagery. Shear is low, about 10 knots, and waters are warm enough to support continued development. The dry Saharan Air Layer is relatively limited in extent and intensity, so dry air may have only a small inhibiting effect on the wave. Expect continued development of this wave as it moves westward over the next few days. NHC is giving this system a medium (30 - 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. This system is moving rather slowly, 10 - 15 mph. The GFDL and HWRF models both predict 94L will be a Category 1 hurricane five days from now. These models also predict that 94L will take a significant northward jog 3 - 5 days from now, in response to a strong trough of low pressure passing to the north (this is the same trough of low pressure that will be recurving Danny out to sea).
I'll have an update Friday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 — Blog Index
It's fine, don't worry about it. What is your take on 94L?
I already tried to post this image, but don't it went though. Here it goes again. The wave over central Africa is very impressive! I think maybe the best I've seen while still traversing the continent.
TOO FAR NORTH, ....FISH
Touché!
Evening Grothar…It’s from the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD). The address to the radar page (which has links to satellite and models) is:
http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid=3194,21328260,3194_21169358:3194_21178594:3194_21206144:319 4_21206152&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL
Need to view the image much larger and in motion to really get a feel though. Check it out: here.
well im not necessarily sure that the high is going to settle in in the atlantic that would prevent it from recurving when it develops, but in the short term i think we will have a depression tomorrow afternoon, and in the long run, i think it threatens the south east coast, if it develops
but this is just pretty much a guess, so take it or leave it, or contribute ha
#910 - whoa! thems lookin' for the Herbert box?
You're welcome :) I hope they are wrong also. Would make me happy enough to subscribe. Lol.
NHC is in our corner on this too.. the 8:05..
SLOW
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE
CENTER FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 68W-72W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANNY.
Just ignore my graphic which I just posted. Not even sure what it was. I have been practicing for a week and just read mikatnight's instruction to someone else, and by golly it works. Thanks Mik!! If I get any nasty comments I swear I'll post a picture of my ex-girlfriend Erika on this. Blog. Got to go now. Everyone stay well!
Perhaps they will agree to disagree...
and what do you have to justify that statement????????
926...is that the latest spagetti run?
LMAO, now thats a good one!! :)
Satellite
Around 20N 150E
There is already a TCFA on it
TCFA
94LLink
danny, 94L- BEHAVE
Hmmm...what makes you think so, and
it's getting kinda late; don't you have to get up early?
Ok. The chief meteorologist down here in West Palm Beach, FL looks and sounds really worried about it.
Models trends in this early runs on 94L is to a more westward track toward the caribbean totaly the oposite scenario that we have with Bill early models.
Never mind my earlier post, you're way ahead of me. Good man. Study hard.
yeah i can see where he is coming from, it could def be a Florida storm, and again if it develops just making sure im clear
Theres no 11pm update...Next outlook @ 2am.
Can you PLEASE substantiate your claim that this may be a FL storm? are you seeing a permanent pattern in place ????
I think all of them will be fish this year expect for Claudette.
You mean at 2am right? TWO comes out at 2am,8am,2pm,8pm
Fox 29?
Viewing: 901 - 951
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 — Blog Index