Ida takes aim at the U.S. Gulf Coast
Hurricane Ida burst into the Gulf of Mexico as a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds this afternoon, and is poised to deliver a solid blow to the U.S. Gulf Coast between Southeast Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday morning. Radar imagery out of Cancun reveals that Ida has retained its tight inner core this afternoon, with only limited rain bands affecting Mexico and western Cuba. Top winds at Cancun, Mexico today were only 15 mph, despite the fact that Ida passed just 60 miles east of the city. Infrared and visible satellite loops show little change in the intensity of Ida's heavy thunderstorms this afternoon, but the cloud pattern is beginning to become distorted due to strong upper-level winds from the southwest that are creating 20 - 25 knots of wind shear over the hurricane. Water vapor satellite imagery reveals a large area of dry air to the southwest of Ida, but this dry air has not yet intruded into Ida's core. The latest 5:30 pm EST vortex report from the Hurricane Hunters showed that the central pressure had risen 1 mb, to 977 mb, but that the surface winds were still near 100 mph. They noted that the eyewall was open to the east, a sign that Ida's inner core may be in trouble.
Figure 1. MODIS satellite image from NASA's Terra spacecraft, taken at 1:35 pm EST 11/08/09. Image credit: NASA.
The intensity forecast for Ida
The high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots currently affecting Ida is forecast to persist at that level until Monday night. With the storm now beginning to show a distortion of the cloud pattern due to this shear, it would not be a surprise of the shear managed to inject some dry air into Ida's core Monday morning, significantly weakening the storm. Aiding this process will be cooler waters. Early Monday morning, Ida will be crossing over waters of 26°C, which is barely enough to support a hurricane. By Monday night, wind shear is expected to increase to 40 knots, which ordinarily would begin to tear the storm apart. This wind shear is due to an extratropical low pressure system over the western Gulf of Mexico, and this low will begin dumping cold, stable air into Ida Monday night through Tuesday. This will cause Ida to begin transitioning to an extratropical storm, and it is possible that during the transition Ida's winds will die down relatively slowly, despite the wind shear. The intensity forecast has a high amount of uncertainty, and I wouldn't be surprised at a landfall strength anywhere in the range of 45 mph - 80 mph. My personal best guess is a 50 - 60 mph tropical storm at landfall. Regardless of Ida's strength at landfall, the storm will be able to dump 4 - 8 inches of rain along the Gulf Coast, from New Orleans to Panama City. Isolated tornadoes will also be possible, primarily to the right side of Ida's track.
Figure 2. Maximum storm surge (depth of water above ground) for a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds moving north-northeast at 15 mph. Ida is expected to be moving at this speed and direction at landfall, but will probably be weaker, so surges will not be this high. Image credit: NOAA SLOSH model run for Mobile Bay, 2008 version. Heights are given relative to the NAVD88 datum.
The storm surge forecast for Ida
Storm surge is the other major concern for Ida. With a strong high pressure system anchored over the U.S. today, the pressure difference between this high and Ida is creating a strong pressure gradient that will drive tides 3 - 5 feet above normal from New Orleans to the Florida Panhandle tonight. As Ida approaches on Monday, an additional rise in water will occur, and a large stretch of coast will be subject to very high water levels for an extended period of time. With battering waves building Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning, a significant coastal erosion event is shaping up. A particular concern is the western end of Alabama's Dauphin Island, where storm surges from four hurricanes over the past fifteen years have caused heavy damage to the low-lying heavily developed island. If Ida makes a direct hit on Mobile Bay as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds, a storm surge of up to six feet is possible there, assuming the storm hits at mean tide. The tidal range along the Gulf Coast varies by about 1.5 feet between low and high tide (Figure 3). High tide is near 2 am EST on Tuesday, but the official NHC forecast currently has the storm hitting between 6 am - 9 am, when the tide will be going out, so the storm may indeed be hitting at about mean tide.
Figure 3. The tide forecast for the Gulf Coast calls for high tide to occur around 2 am EST Tuesday morning. Ida is expected to hit later that morning, while the tide is going out.
I'll have an update Monday morning.
Links to follow:
U.S. Severe Weather Page
Cancun radar
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Sounds close, less than a Trip from Miami to Tallahassee.
Ah, geez, I certainly hope not! Was out there in late July.
Another thought is the Destin Harbor, its been closing up and already need dredging.
Going to be an interesting storm no matter where she blows.
Now 105 mph. Not much more to go for Cat 3 and cloud tops very cold and becoming symmetrical.
Pressure should fall again soon in response to the deep convection that has returned.
the NHC based the max winds on the much higher flight level winds (103-108 kts). Do a regular reduction of 10 to 15%, you have around 90 kts and 105 mph.
18Z HWRF......brings it near Pensacola....in 30-36 hours.
Sorry...looks like I get slapped.
Associated Press article; bold is mine.
La. Gov. declares emergency ahead of hurricane Ida
By BECKY BOHRER (AP) – 1 hour ago
NEW ORLEANS — Hurricane Ida, the first Atlantic hurricane to target the United States this year, plodded Sunday toward the Gulf Coast with 100 mph winds, bringing the threat of flooding and storm surges.
A hurricane watch extended over more than 200 miles of coastline across southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. Louisiana's governor declared a state of emergency.
Authorities said Ida could make landfall as early as Tuesday morning, although it was forecast to weaken by then. Officials and residents kept a close eye on the Category 2 hurricane as it approached, though there were no immediate plans for evacuations.
At 1 p.m. EST, Ida was located 510 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River and moving northwest near 10 mph. The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center shows Ida brushing near Louisiana and Mississippi, then making landfall near Alabama before continuing across north Florida.
Yet many residents took the forecast in stride.
"Even though we're telling everybody to be prepared, my gut tells me it probably won't be that bad," said Steve Arndt, director of Bay Point Marina Co. in Panama City, Fla.
In Louisiana, Gov. Bobby Jindal had declared a state of emergency as a precaution, and the National Guard was on high alert if assistance was needed. New Orleans wasn't included in the hurricane watch.
But officials were encouraging residents to prepare for potential gusts of 60 mph by removing any tree limbs that could damage their homes and securing or bringing in any trash cans, grills, potted plants or patio furniture.
Nearly 1,400 Louisiana residents are still living in federally issued trailers and mobile homes after hurricanes Katrina and Rita; nearly 360 units remained in Mississippi.
"FEMA stresses that those in temporary (housing) units should not take chances," Federal Emergency Management Agency spokesman Andrew Thomas said. "Leave the unit behind and evacuate to a permanent structure that will better withstand tropical weather systems and the associated winds."
Mississippi authorities warned residents to be vigilant. Authorities were monitoring conditions to see whether any evacuations of lower-lying areas or school closures would be necessary.
"It is likely we will at least be hit with strong winds and some flooding in our coastal counties," said Jeff Rent, a spokesman for the Mississippi Emergency Management Agency. Officials "do not want anybody to be caught off guard."
Mississippi Emergency Management Agency Director Mike Womack said forecasts called for tides of 4-7 feet above normal and rainfall totals of 5-7 inches within 24 hours, which could mean flooding along the coasts and along rivers.
Alabama emergency management officials did not immediately respond to phone messages. (ed: tailgating party?)
In the Florida Panhandle, residents in Bay County and Panama City were being advised to secure boats and prepare for storm surges that could reach 2-3 feet. Heavy rain, wind and possible flooding was also expected.
"You really don't know until it gets close how you're going to be affected by it," said Brad Monroe, Bay County's deputy chief of emergency services.
Ida wasn't expected to pack the wallop seen in 2008 when hurricanes Gustav and Ike pelted the Gulf Coast back-to-back. There have been nine named storms this season, which ends Dec. 1. Ida is only the third hurricane to form, and neither of the others threatened land.
Ida wasn't expected to directly threaten New Orleans, where unflappable fans at the Saints football game seemed unaware a storm was approaching.
"We're used to tropical storms," said David Clements of Chalmette, La. "That's why we have a dome."
Earlier Sunday, Ida's wind and rain whipped palm trees in the Mexican resort city of Cancun. Fishermen tied their boats down, though tourists seemed to regard it as a minor setback.
"It's not what we expected," said Kathleen Weisser, a nurse from Fernley, Nev. "We wanted sun. Instead we have liquid sunshine."
Ron Kaczorowski, of Chicago, said his daughter was forced to move her beach wedding inside because of the storm. He said he had tried to reassure his disappointed daughter that the nasty weather would make her wedding stand out.
"I told her, 'How many people get married in a hurricane?'"
Associated Press writers Suzette Laboy in Miami and Catherine E. Shoichet in Cancun contributed to this story.
Copyright © 2009 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.
We still have ALOT of homes on the ground instead of raised in SW Pcola! I'm at 7.5 ft! The condos and all construction since 2005 probably will be OK. Just erosion at the beaches and will probably wash out the beach roads that were just completed from when Ivan jacked them all up in 2004. Those of us not on stilts may have a serious problem between higher tides and storm surge!
Probably just caught up to the earlier pressure fall. Eye down to 8 miles in diameter.
So wait Ida has strengthened?
lol
Don't think that's going to happen. It may turn near or at landfall.
Its intensifying nicely, hopefully nothing too much.
Don't let Peter Bos hear you talk like that! You know how much $$$ he put into his monstrosity, er, I mean, condo-complex on the harbor to only have it sand-locked (or worse, fall into the East Pass)! ;)
geez
I do think the turn to the right will happen, timing is everything though
and the wall comes tumbling down...
Remember sir. The track does not change during int advisory, EVER. So it will look weird from time to time.
wow, I have been off for a while and when I now check back on the blog I see a hurricane in the GOM. What a surprise.
Re: 55. Re: 52. Re: 50. (a.k.a. the steering explanation)
Thanks guys, now it makes sense why the steering layer for major hurricanes was posted. It had me a bit confused and I also thought that Ida is surely not going to intensify to 940 mb but when looking at the steering layer for the appropriate pressure it looks quite different as you can see here:
Interesting, that the higher layer already shows what the lower ones will be like in the near future. Anyone's take on that?
Anyway, thanks for explaining why the steering changes acgreen305 and BurnedAfterPosting.
Cheers,
tipsku
Yes it has.
Winds: 105 mph
Minimal Central Pressure: 979 mb
Moving: North-Northwest at 12 mph.
I know, hopefully I didnt speak to soon LOL.
No he got banned for a posting an on-topic image.
for real????
On topic ??
/me (does her touchdown dance with Ida!)
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